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http://www.themoneylinejournal.com/ - Sports Wagering Analysis From A Contrarian Perspective
Originally posted here:
NFL: 70-70-3 (50%), +.245x
NCAAF: 97-76-4 (56%), +45.94x
Aggregate: 167-146-7 (53%), +46.19x
It was a great season. The numbers were obviously good, but to end up where I did after being stuck over 10K in early September is truly amazing and a testament to my ...
Other
Hong Kong: -4.24x
Disney: -2.45x
Golf since return to the TMLJ: +49.55x
I lost a single round match-up on Thursday (Owen over Rose) when my guy shot the 2nd lowest round of the day and won a tournament match-up (Ames over Rose) despite fading a player who finished T-4, so I guess the ...
Golf
Vijay Singh
Luke Donald
USC Trojans -3 -109 over Arizona St (4x) - 11/22/07
I have been deciding what to do with this USC line all week. Even though it is mighty USC, we still have a lower ranked team laying a FG to a higher ranked team on the road. Consider the fact that Arizona St has been a more publicly backed ...
NCAA Football
Southern California Trojans
Arizona State Sun Devils
ML: 51-49 (102 points)
VW: 48-51-1 (97 points)
JP: 48-52 (96 points)
We’ve been running our simulations under the assumption that 1/2 of our picks will be the same, which may or may not be correct. Here is how we overlapped last week:
ML-VW: New England
ML-JP: Carolina, ...
NFL
England
Green Bay Packers
St. Louis Rams
While the the picks have generally stayed the same, my views on strategy have changed quite a bit over the last 2+ years, and while I might be able to sum it all up in a few short posts, I think it would be more beneficial for my core readers, and fun for me, if I went back and basically ...
Other
Last Week: 3-2
Overall: 19-26
Current Standing: Approximately 265th out of 328
I say approximately because the standings posted on the Hilton’s very own website are not 100% accurate, and I don’t want to overstate how well I’m doing in this thing.
Bullshit
...
NFL
Green Bay Packers
New England Patriots
Seattle Seahawks
Washington Redskins
New York Jets
Click to enlarge.
I’ve worked hard to become less results oriented, but at the same time it is important to know where you stand and looking at the big picture is certainly healthier than obsessing over shorter term fluctuations. That chart should include everything that I’ve ...
Other
PGA Grand Slam of Golf: +6x
Frys.Com Open: +1.66x
Castello Masters: +1.46x
Volvo Match Play: +2x
HSBC Champions: -4.5x
Golf since return to The TMLJ: +56.24x
Whatever. Once upon a time in a land far, far away I had an impressive track record with the NBA. The End.
It’s a ...
Golf
Week 9: -3.15x
STD: -47.36x
In Week 7 we learned that Fred Davis can’t block. Apparently, he can’t catch either , which begs the question: What exactly is “other bonus” for?
It doesn’t matter though. Barring something extremely improbable like a winning ...
NFL
Fred Davis
Week 10: -.07x
STD: +7.29x
It’s not that Houston won by 1 so much as how they did it that has my CFB related mood at a new season low:
Other
ML: 44-46 (88 points)
JP: 38-42 (86 points)
VW: 35-44-1 (83 points)
Running the sim* VTVT style produces the following to win percentages:
ML: 46.65%
JP: 31.39%
VW: 15.95%
2nd place is upset about having Detroit (+10.5) to my Seattle , but he won’t find any sympathy here ...
Other
Last Week: 0-5
Overall: 16-24
Current Standing: 273 out of 328
My current standing reminds me of my high school class rank. At this point in the game it would be foolish for me to invest a lot of time coming up with and writing about the eventual losers:
Selection #1: Tampa Bay +10 ...
MLB
Tampa Bay Rays
Washington Redskins
I have changed my mind about 2,863,044 times since starting this site, and for that I will never apologize. Loyalty to ideas can be dangerous, especially when it comes to investing.
At some point I’d like to write a post(s) explaining each and every minor revelation that I’ve made ...
Other
themoneylinejournal.com - 17 days ago
—
themoneylinejournal.com —
Below you’ll find the probability of each of
college football’s remaining undefeated teams finishing the regular season*
as such, along with the (un) likelihood of 6 of them doing so: To come up with those numbers I predicted a point ...
(more)
The B.C.S. Doomsday Scenario
Comments
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The Big Lead
found this 17 days agofound this
CFB Week 9: -4.4x
STD: +7.36x
NFL Week 8: +3x
STD: -44.21x
Once again those NFL numbers do not include unrealized but certain futures and contest losses. At this point, there is virtually no way that this won’t go down as my worst football season, results wise, since the advent ...
Other
Here’s where we stand at the 47% mark of Carib Stupidity .
ML: 38-42 (76 points)
JP: 38-42 (76 points)
VW: 35-44-1 (71 points)
Running the sim* VTVT style produces the following to win percentages:
ML: 40.2%
JP: 39.74%
VW: 14%
As recently as two weeks ago I was 70% to win, ...
NCAA Football
California Golden Bears
Below you’ll find the line movement for tomorrow’s game between Penn St & Northwestern, courtesy of SBR:
Now I’m just a lowly outsider, but in my opinion the mess above could have been avoided had they properly accounted for 3 things:
The public was going to be on ...
NCAA Football
Penn State Nittany Lions
Northwestern Wildcats
Last Week: 1-4
Overall: 16-19
Current Standing: They haven’t updated them yet, but it can’t be good.
I’d have to go 41-9 the rest of the way to top Fezzik’s winning total from last year. In other news:
Market Analysis
Contest - Market .
Selection #1: ...
NFL
Jacksonville Jaguars
Format last seen here .
West Virginia @ South Florida, Friday 7:00 PM, ESPN
Open: +3.5
Current: +3
Consensus: 66.69 / 84 / 84 / 55
Lean: South Florida
LOP: 4
If you’ve seen either of USF’s last 2 games then you aren’t going to like this, but it is a standard ...
