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studes
I also write for The Hardball Times (www.hardballtimes.com) Web Site: http://www.baseballgraphs.com/ BallHype Member since Jan. 17, 2007 |
Comments Posted
Florida State League scouting report
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studes +1I think I corrected it, adam. Next time drop me an email to let me know there's a mistake.
How well can we predict ERA?
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studes Oops. I meant ... that's what I was point out to Colin.
How well can we predict ERA?
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studes Yup, which was the main point brought up in the THT Fantasy entry that started this whole thing. Really, Colin is reinforcing Derek's main point, that FIP and related stats aren't the best stats to use when predicting future ERA. They're intended to isolate pitching from fielding.
At THT, we like to use David Gassko's LIPS which, as far as I can tell, is pretty much the same thing as tRA*. And as Colin points out, you can use an updated projection for pitchers with enough major league experience.
How well can we predict ERA?
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studes Derek, that's what I was pointing out to Derek. He used total flies instead of outfield flies.
How well can we predict ERA?
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studes We use BIS data, not Retrosheet's.
How well can we predict ERA?
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studes Woohoo! I win!
Seriously, the main point is that none of these stats is all that good at predicting ERA, which is the conclusion I've come to in past columns.
Also, there is an error in the article. xFIP calculates home runs per outfield fly, not per fly.
Johan Santana’s blister and the rub of PITCHf/x
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studes Great article, Harry. Thanks.
Putting the scissor to defense (Part 1)
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studes Awesome, Colin! I have to take some time to digest this, but I love seeing a fielding list that includes Germany Smith next to Brooks Robinson.
THT Daily: The other park effect
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studes Good question. We're working on that, but nothing is imminent.
Land of 10,000 coincidences
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studes Great read, Chris. Thanks.
Piazza vs. Bench vs. Pudge
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studes Yeah, though I don't think WP/PB rates will matter much.
Piazza vs. Bench vs. Pudge
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studes Real nice job, Sky. The only thing I'd add is that I think the measure of catcher defense isn't as foolproof as your article makes it seem. Controlling the running game is only one aspect of a catcher's defense. I personally think Piazza was an excellent handler of pitchers, but it's tough to quantify that.
The root (part 2)
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studes I agree with Guy, and this is something I've been ranting about for several years (now I sound like Chris Dial!). Clearly, all baseball teams develop players in their farm systems, and to ignore that fact is to model something that has little basis in reality. At one point, I calculated that all the players making the league minimum in a given year played .450 baseball, or something around that, using WSAB.
Of course, that's just a starting place, but I think the level of "no free agent" wins that would reflect reality would be somewhere between .296 (Colin's number) and .450.
Plus, I have to say that I'm a bit confused by the article (I know I'm slow at this stuff). I see that you "created a model for the value of a win above replacement to the average team" and I see a reference to specific variables in the footnote section, but what, exactly did your model do and why should we be surprised (or not) that it fitted Dave's data?
Is baseball special?
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studes Thanks, everyone. I'm sure ready to move onto other baseball subjects.
The injury zone
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studes Wow. Awesome, Josh.
The A-Rod Roundtable
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studes Again, I disagree, John. Landis was brought in BECAUSE owners realized they had to address the situation. Rickey would have brought in Jackie Robinson no matter who was commissioner (there is evidence that Landis's opposition to integration has been overhyped). And, yes, it took an arbitrator to introduce free agency, but baseball has incorporated it into their structure. It didn't take a change of ledership to make it happen.
Look, if people feel baseball isn't responding appropriately in the current environment, that's a huge issue. But constantly ruminating over who took what four years ago is unproductive.
The A-Rod Roundtable
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studes If there were evidence that the problem wasn't being properly addressed now, I'd agree with you. That may be a correct assessment, but A-Rod's positive test from three years ago is irrelevant to that particular question.
I don't call for heads just to make me feel good. That's cutting off your nose to spite your face. Donald Rumsfeld quit because he consistently made the same mistakes over and over. He showed an inability to learn. From what little I know, I think that Selig, Fehr and all have learned and are addressing the situation. If something were to come to light that shows they aren't, then I'd agree with you.
The A-Rod Roundtable
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studes I'm pretty sure Jack was being sarcastic.
The A-Rod Roundtable
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studes I agree with bandini's general point. Given the environment that existed in MLB at the time, taking steroids wasn't that different from going ten miles per hour over the speed limit.
Players took greenies for years. Hank Aaron reportedly did. Willie Mays did, Mike Schmidt did, etc. etc. From an ethical standpoint, how is taking steroids worse? Because they appear to work in ways people don't like?
Exploring contact quality
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studes Thanks for the clarification on the PMR data. Makes sense.
Seems to me that, if you're addressing your original point of Voros' finding and DIPS, batted ball type has to be included in the equation. Clearly, the trajectory of a batted ball has an impact on its fieldability, no matter how hard it's hit. If you're not including batted ball types, then I'm not really sure what your results represent.
Just my two cents.
