The overall leaderboard of 17 Games contains one peculiarity that warrants expanded discussion: Carter Blanchard, my colleague and friend, is tied for the lead with Brian of Awful Announcing. Brian, as we all know, watches and gets football. Carter does not. This development is obviously embarrassing for all of us who do watch the sport, but it also requires an analysis of exactly what Carter has gone up against this season.

First, let’s go through several things that Carter doesn’t know about the NFL. Over the course of the season, he has asked me about: the kicking team being allowed to pick up a kick, the clock not stopping on first downs, illegal contact, and a variety of other rules. Granted, these are things that are difficult to pick up if you’ve never watched a game, but they are still evident to anyone with some knowledge of the sport. In fact, I’d say Carter knows more about college football than pro football, although it’s hard to say he’s familiar with either.

But who is Carter Blanchard, the fan? A native of Southern California, Carter grew up with no team and thus adopted the Buffalo Bills a few months ago. Essentially, he did so because he went to Stanford and likes Trent Edwards. He also claims to be a fan of Marshawn Lynch, but it’s entirely possible that he says that just because he’s heard of him. As far as I can tell, Carter has never watched more than half of a single Bills game. Actually, for the season, he’s watched a combined three NFL games. Before this season, outside of Super Bowls, he had never watched a full NFL game. Again, this guy’s winning the frickin’ contest. It’s one of the most inspirational stories ever.

Not only that, but he’s doing it with some pretty tremendous, steady picks. Carter has taken the Patriots just once (Week 6 vs. Dallas), and even then he won just 15.5 points from them – an impressive pick, to be sure, but not exactly the best game the Pats have had this year. Additionally, he’s taken only one team more than once – the Seahawks, who have only given him 8.5 points. Basically, Carter has reached the top by making fairly solid picks every week. Theoretically, that should be the mark of a tried and true handicapper, the kind of person who just doesn’t screw up.

So what can we learn from the story of the man who knew too little? First, all this predicting is at least partially stupid, because even those who watch a lot of football can’t beat a guy who probably doesn’t know Canadians play on a different field. At the same time, Carter’s situation tells us that this is a pretty simple game, when you get right down to it. You look at the games, you see who’s good, and you make a pick. Sometimes it works, and sometimes it doesn’t. Carter’s choices have just happened to work a lot more often than not.

Last week's slate featured two high-pick games that blew up in everyone’s face. The week’s most popular pick was that of the Browns over the Cardinals, which led to a -7 output for 11 unlucky players, myself included. The other disaster of the week featured the Pats losing 16 points for seven players after their narrow victory in Baltimore. That game might scare a lot of us off of New England for a few weeks, but, well, we’ll have more on that later.

With the overall leaderboard already discussed above, let’s head right to the Ballhype Invitational, where Brian is understandably laying waste to the field – second-place MDS is a full 54 points behind. While that might look like an insurmountable lead, it’s important to remember that one blowout on either side could shift the tide within a week. So, it’s still somehow anyone’s game, although the smart money should rest on Brian.

This week has two games really striking games, although I won’t end up picking either of them. In the first, Minnesota (-8.5) travels to San Francisco, the worst team in the NFC. If this were a normal game, I would pick it, but I refuse to pick against my favorite team and therefore must abstain. But that shouldn’t stop all of you. The second game is unsurprisingly the Patriots (-10.5) hosting the Steelers, the obvious Best Game of the Week. The last two weeks presumably have told us that the Patriots have lost their edge a bit, but now that Anthony Smith (Did I even get his name right? Does anyone even care?) has issued a challenge things might get ugly. I also don’t know if this team is incapable of a blowout for three straight weeks. So, if I were a brave man, I would take the Patriots. However, I’m not, so I’m going with the Saints (-4) at the Falcons on Monday night. To be honest, I’m only taking it because the Falcons are involved and the spread is relatively small. I expect nothing out of it and strongly advise that you all take the Vikings.

Make your picks here before kickoffs.