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17 Games Week 17: The Gathering

tykeenan posted 12/28/2007 from ballhype.com

Ballhype’s weekly contest of one-game pigskin prognostication all comes down to this weekend as 17 Games comes to a close. There are some tight races going on for our prizes, and, while fantasy leagues may have ended last week, 17 Games can still provide you with a reason to care about insignificant games this week, too. So, while this likely won’t be my last week in this space, it is the last time you’ll have the chance to take my average-at-best advice on picks unless I get saucy and decide to handicap the opening round playoff games next week.

Last week’s picks were spread throughout the league pretty evenly, although the Browns did get six picks for their 19-14 loss (and -7.5 points in 17 Games) to the Bengals. Other than that, the most shocking news of the week was that the Patriots got just one pick for their victory over the Dolphins, although the one lost point from that game makes that look pretty intelligent. The biggest victories of the week (Bears over Packers and Jaguars over Raiders) were not picked by anyone, which makes Week 16 one of the least eventful weeks of the season.

In the overall competition, Fat Phil is still in first after both he and Carter Blanchard took the Seahawks. With one game left, 16.5 points separate these players, so Carter will probably need some help from Phil if he wants to come away with the prize. One-time leader Tom Ziller has fallen into fifth place after his Bills pick last week. He claims that I jinxed him by changing my pick after I published my article last week, but…well, he’s probably right. Sorry, TZ. I’ll make it up to you by not making any Kings jokes for the next two days. It’ll be tough, but I think I can do it.

The Ballhype Invitational looks like a two-horse race, too, with MDS holding a 6.5-point lead over Brian of Awful Announcing. Brooks is now 33.5 points off the lead, so a miracle could catapult him into first, but I wouldn’t hold my breath. Perhaps the most exciting part of this week’s games will be that we’ll finally find out which charity will receive the Invitational’s winnings. Most of us are banking on The Human Fund, although HOOP could always make a late charge.

Given that this is the last week, I figure it’s either time to play it safe or go all out from most of our participants. As such, I will now divide this week’s games into categories depending on what everyone needs. It should be stated right off the bat, though, that I never approve of playing it safe. If either Fat Phil or MDS does it, I suspect the handicapping gods will smite them from Olympus.

Playing It Safe
1. New England (-13.5) at Giants. The Patriots are not going to lose this game under any circumstances, so I find it hard to believe anyone will lose more than six points from this game. It’s far more likely you’ll end up with a positive .5, actually.
2. Philadelphia (-7.5) vs. Buffalo. The Bills seem to have hit a snag, and you have to think McNabb will play reasonably well in what is likely his last game in Philly.
3. Tennessee (-6) at Indianapolis. You have to think the Titans will do what’s necessary to get into the playoffs, so even a failure to cover wouldn’t be catastrophic.
Just Need a Win
1. Washington (-9) vs. Dallas. That’s a sizable spread, but the Skins are playing really well and the Cowboys should be resting everyone.
2. Bengals (-3) at Miami. They’re still the Dolphins.
Need a Miracle
1. San Francisco (+10) at Cleveland. This is my pick this week. I figure the Niners have been playing decently (at home, granted) and Cleveland has fallen off a bit. At any rate, when you’re desperate you need to reach a little.
2. Denver (+3) vs. Minnesota. Who knows, maybe the Vikes will get down early again and Childress will forget he has two good running backs. Never underestimate the Tarvaris Factor.

Remember to make your picks here before kickoffs.