2007 Projected Division Standings -- The Hardball Times

Links (29)

Hardball Times Division Forecasts
Published 3/19/2007 by John Beamer at Chop-n-Change
... Check out my Hardball Times article today that looks at how each division will shake out based on the THT player forecasts that are available in the Preseason annual. Here is how I think the NL East will shake out:

Division Projections
Published 3/19/2007 by StatsGuru at Baseball Musings
... John Beamer puts together his predictions for the division races at The Hardball Times . The most interesting thing about the standings is the National League is so bad. Arizona posts the best record in the senior circuit with an 86-76 mark. While I don't disagree there are no clearly dominant teams in the NL, just by chance one of these teams will win 90+ games.

at a glance
Published 3/19/2007 by lboros at Viva El Birdos: Front Page Posts
... finally --- the cards have won another simulated/projected division title, this one at The Hardball Times

Monday Morning Rockpile:
Published 3/19/2007 by Rox Girl <info@purplerow.com> at Purple Row: Front Page Posts
... but of course park effects take it down in the standardized rankings a bit. I bring this HR up, not only because Matt hit another one off the Rangers yesterday, but because John Beamer at the Hardball Times predicts the Rockies to finish behind the Giants this season. Take a look at the highlight one more time. What is Matt saying to Cain there? Personally, I think he says:

The Hangover: Edwin Jackson Or J. P. Howell For The 5th Spot
Published 3/19/2007 by The Professor at Rays Index
... The Hardball Times mathematical projections of the AL East standings indicate this could be a long season for the Rays with a final record of 68-94. One problem is that they predict each of the other teams to finish at .500 or better.

Monday Quick Hits: Matt Belisle Would Make A Fine Fifth Starter
Published 3/19/2007 by JD Arney at Red Reporter: Front Page Posts
... The Hardball Times really doesn't like the Reds chances in 2007, forecasting them to go 73-89, with a 5% chance of winning the division. I'm not terribly optimistic that they'll go nuts and win 95 games, but I'll also be surprised if they finish fifth.

And the Winner Is Probably...
Published 3/19/2007 by YF at YFSF
... The Hardball Times presents its projections for the 2007 division standings today. We're not crazy about the methodology (more buts than an Eddie Murphy film), and I'm guessing Sox fans will agree. Jays fans will certainly agree. Don't even get the Rays fan started. He's very upset.

Read: 2007 Division Projections
Published 3/19/2007 by Mike Nichols at MetsBlog.com
... John Beamer of The Hardball Times provides his predictions of the 2007 Projected Division Standings.

The NL East
Published 3/19/2007 by John Beamer at Chop-n-Change
... Check out my Hardball Times article today that looks at how each division will shake out based on the THT player forecasts that are available in the Preseason annual. Here is how I think the NL East will shake out:

Catching up and cleaning up
Published 3/20/2007 by billfer at The Detroit Tiger Weblog
... The Hardball Times predicts the division races and sees the Twins winning the Central, with a 3 way tie for second.

Catching up and cleaning up
Published 3/20/2007 by billfer at The Detroit Tiger Weblog
... The Hardball Times predicts the division races and sees the Twins winning the Central, with a 3 way tie for second.

Two weeks to go; cuts made
Published 3/20/2007 by Kurt at Mack Avenue Tigers
... The Hardball Times released its division predictions. It came up with 83 wins for Detroit, less than PECOTA. The White Sox and the Indians were all at that mark. The Twins romp with 89 wins. I don’t buy that for an instant. I just don’t see that Twins starting pitching as being strong enough to run away with the division. While many seem to overrate the Central, this analysis seems to underrate it.

Links for 2007-03-19 [del.icio.us]
Published 3/20/2007 at The Detroit Tiger Weblog
... 2007 Projected Division Standings -- The Hardball Times

Links for 2007-03-19 [del.icio.us]
Published 3/20/2007 at The Detroit Tiger Weblog
... 2007 Projected Division Standings -- The Hardball Times

PECOTA Provides.
Published 3/20/2007 by Robert J. Baumann at Brewers Bar
... To be fair, I should probably include this one from The Hardball Times, which is far less optimistic. Warning to sensitive Brewer Fans who are easily made anxious by preseason predictions: don’t click on link above.

Strange Tattoo Nighty Cap
Published 3/20/2007 by edwzipper at Sports Frog
... • The Hardball Times has a scientific statistical method of selecting baseball's order of finish for the upcoming season. In the

Tony and the Big Four
Published 3/20/2007 by Cory Humes at Pittsburgh Lumber Co.
... Long story short: We need a miracle. If everything falls into place as scripted, Bodog’s 20-to-1 underdog (substantiated by John Beamer) might pay off in a big way.

Items of Interest
Published 3/20/2007 by Rob G. at The Cub Reporter (TCR) | A Chicago Cubs Blog -
... (including an article by yours truly) to try and predict the division races. They’ve got the Cubs and Cardinals in a virtual dead heat, with the Cards winning by one game finishing with 85 wins.

Wednesday Morning Rockpile:
Published 3/21/2007 by Rox Girl <info@purplerow.com> at Purple Row: Front Page Posts
... list, and I thought again about how wrong some pretty smart people are about the Diamondbacks' chances in the NL West this season. It's not just Perry, but I've seen it all over the internet. Now, some would disagree, according to

Hangin' wi' da Twins...
Published 3/22/2007 by Jim McLennan <info@azsnakepit.com> at AZ Snakepit: Front Page Posts
... We're #1! We're #1! Well, that's the projections from a couple of places, both of which expect the Diamondbacks to win the NL West. The Hardball Times projections goes one step further, giving us the best record in the NL. That's probably a bit more optimistic than even most fans would be prepared to go. And I have to say, I think the Giants prediction (83 wins) is perhaps even more on the high side: I'm anticipating near-implosion over in the retirement community of Sun City by the Bay. PECOTA

Counting down
Published 3/26/2007 by Ryan McConnell at NJ.com: Always Amazin'
... Only 292 hours until Opening Day... Around the Web: Good news: The Hardball Times projects the Mets to win the division. Bad news: They predict the Amazins to win only 85 games. Seems a little low, though Baseball Prospectus

FanIQ Says ... NL East Predictions
Published 3/26/2007 by Blog@FanIQ.com (CriticalFanatic) at FanIQ Blog
... Hardball Times: Mets, Braves, Phillies, Marlins, Nationals

Computer simulations are now coming out regularly:...
Published 3/27/2007 by Al at Al's Ramblings
... Tuesday, March 27, 2007 (3/27/2007 10:09:00 AM) - Al Computer simulations are now coming out regularly: The Hardball Times

American League Final Standings, a sneak preview
Published 3/28/2007 by Sean Smith at Statistically Speaking
... This same approach was also done recently on the Hardball Times by John Beamer, using the THT projected stats. My results are pretty similar, but there are a few things the two systems see differently. Baseball Prospectus has similar predictions for their PECOTA system, and if you are a subscriber I recommend checking that out as well.

2007 Brewers: Mediocre Posers or Crew of Champs?
Published 3/28/2007 by Robert J. Baumann at Brewers Bar
... . The former has the Brew Crew finishing 3rd, at 78-84 and behind the Cardinals and the Cubs. The latter

More Speculation
Published 3/31/2007 by John Beamer at Chop-n-Change
... except for THT, which is from my article of two weeks ago)

Predicting, Predicting, Predicting
Published 4/2/2007 by Basil <info@federalbaseball.com> at Federal Baseball: Front Page Posts
... Perhaps I overstate, but that seems to be the long and short of it. These days, what you do is run every position and player through a projection system, then project team performance based on those projections. And, just to make sure you've filtered luck out of the process, you run those projections, say, one thousand times and report the average. You get results like those of the Hardball Times, which has all of two teams winning 90 or more games---you'll never guess which---and no teams losing more than 95 games. You see, that's a classic projection based on team quality, rather than a prediction of results in a specific year. In other words, it's reasoned, but it ain't wild-assed.

Protrade: The Sports Stock Market
Published 4/20/2007 by John Beamer at Chop-n-Change
... Let’s see if that’s fair. Before the season I had the Braves with a 24% chance of going to the playoffs. A team that has a 24% of going to the playoffs typically wins 87 games (I realize you’re going to have to take my word for that, but I’ll prove it in an upcoming THT article).

Projecting 2008
Published 12/4/2007 by Dave & Aziz Nekoukar at NJ.com: Pride of the Yankees
... in 2008. Beamer makes his biggest assumption in sending Johan Santana the Yanks' way. In our opinion, he also doesn't factor in enough of a defensive drop-off if Melky is gone and Damon is in CF for most of the season. But he does factor in a slight drop-off, so the projection is probably fair enough. The bottom line is that Beamer estimates the Yanks, with Santana, will be 15 wins above average in 2008 (which would put them at 96 wins). There might be something to the analysis, as THT's 2007 projections put the Yanks at 95 wins (they finished ...