Anatomy of a player: Tim Lincecum
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The Hardball Times found this 12/4/2007 on www.hardballtimes.com [flag] |
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MLB
Tim Lincecum
Comments (11)
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xv84 This is true. You can confirm this yourself. If you search for pictures of Lincecum, he never has a 4-seam grip. It's always a 2-seamer. Also, his changeup and curveball grips are based off a 2-seam grip so it makes it easier for him to switch grips while in his windup.
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profpepper Thanks again Josh.
One question. Should I use your tool (I'm sure I will) and publish results, how would you like to get credited?
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nomo1136 Good article. Thanks.
Though I would like to talk about something you addressed in the article.
"That 10 mph difference is very large for a changeup,...That huge separation really helps him get all those swings and misses."
I've been watchin and studying tons of pitchers along the years, but I don't think that the difference in speed between fastball and off-speed pitches are quite that important. Namely, if you throw a good off-speed, it doesn't really matter if it's 8 or 10 mph slower than the fastball, and vice-versa. Having a greater difference in speed may help you a little bit on some occations but not really that important. There're many pitchers who's got a off-speed quite slower than his fastball but ineffective or just a bit slower yet being one of the best in the game. Just my two cents. Thanks again for the work.
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studes Though that is the common wisdom, FWIW. Sounds like a great research topic for a pitch f/x article! (hint, hint)
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joshkalk Thanks for the kind words everyone.
Obsessive,
So all the fastballs Lincecum is throwing are actually two seamers? Wow I haven't read that but it is certainly possible. If that is the case then I would agree 100%. He isn't the sink you want on a good two seamer so you might as well throw a four seamer. That is nuts. He might throw 98+ then.
Profpepper,
I am so sorry that I didn't get the spin into this version. Something is totally messed up in my code on that and I need to fix it. It will happen in the next release though I promise. As for using the images go ahead and put them up anywhere. If you could add a link to the tool or the THT article that would be great.
Nomo,
You may indeed be correct on that. After the tool is in the shape I would like the next thing to do is start calculating league averages for basically every parameter. Then I can say this speed difference is x% better than league average and say if that matters or not.
And don't worry Dave, once that is done at least one article will come from that.
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obsessivegiantscompulsive Yes, according to the Giants regular TV baseball analyst (former pitcher for them too; former 20 game winner :^), Krukow, that is true. One would hope since he has such close contact, he would have passed this tip to Lincecum at some point.
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Jacob great article again Josh! i like seeing your graphs improve from article to article, too. If you are interested in data presentation i'd recommend Edward Tufte.
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profpepper Josh, I don't remember if this was on your to-do list, but I think a bases empty vs men on split could be interesting (to see, for example, if the break changes from full windup to the stretch position). -
joshkalk Prof,
I hadn't been planning it but I will add it to the list. The certainly makes a lot of sense though. I hadn't been tracking baserunners at all so since the xml code doesn't do it I will have to add that in and then rerun. So it might take a while.
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walshj58 Very interesting comments about Lincecum throwing only a 2-seamer. The speed and vertical movement on his pitches certainly make you think he uses a 4-seam grip.
Out of curiosity, I looked for images of Lincecum using google image search. I found maybe a half dozen photos where you could easily see the grip: in every one Lincecum was using a 2-seam grip.
Links (6)
Deconstructing Lincecum
Published 12/4/2007 by Geoff Young at Knuckle Curve - Baseball News
... Over at Hardball Times (full disclosure, I contribute to THT), Josh Kalk analyzes San Francisco Giants right-hander Tim Lincecum using PITCHf/x data. Josh likes the movement on Lincecum’s fastball, and compares the youngster to Milwaukee’s Ben Sheets (hopefully without the injuries). ...
Mutually Assured Destruction
Published 12/4/2007 by E.L.M. at El Lefty Malo
... reports that one Reds official thinks the Giants “have to” trade Timmy. (For more on why the Reds and other teams are drooling, read this.) ...
Around The Blogosphere for 12/4
Published 12/4/2007 by Alex Whiteleather at MVN Outsider
... pretty good. [The Bronx Block]
Things are not going as smoothly as planned this year in Anaheim. What’s wrong with the defending champions? [On The Pond]
Elsewhere in the sports blogging community:
No shame in the Sugar Bowl Bulldog fans. Oh plus there’s a sexy picture of Jennifer Aniston as well so double bonus. [GeorgiaSportsBlog]
Everything you ever needed to know about the young ace Tim Lincecum. [The Hardball Times]
More salt to throw in the wounds for Mizzou football ...
Anatomy of a player: Tim Lincecum—The Hardball Times
Published 12/5/2007 at BBTF's Baseball Primer Newsblog
Anatomy of a player: Tim Lincecum—The Hardball Times So Lincecum’s change has produced some amazing results. What is he doing to make it so effective? First, he is throwing the pitch very similarly to his fastball. It has nearly the same horizontal break as his fastball, but with less “rise.” It isn’t as hidden as Tom Glavine’s change up, but still is well hidden. Second, he throws it much slower than his fastball, checking in under 85 mph. That 10 mph difference is very large for a changeup. For instance, Johan Santana has less than an 8 mph difference. Cole Hamels has a ...
Tim Lincecum: Anatomy of a player
Published 12/5/2007 by Beavercat at PAFFL - Opinonated Fantasy Football News & Analysis
Normally this blog is all about football, fantasy football traditionally, but football in general as well. However as a life long baseball fan who lives & dies with the San Francisco Giants, I found this deep dive into the quality of Giants pitching phenom Tim Lincecum . Its called ' Anatomy of a player ' written by the Josh Kalk of the Hard Ball Times. He looked at approximately 50% of all Lincecum's throws last season (over 1000 in total) to analyze the speed, quality and frequency of each of his three pitches.
(The) Change is Good
Published 1/18/2008 by E.L.M. at El Lefty Malo
... News flash: Lincecum already has developed one. According to this Hardball Times analysis of every pitch he threw in 2007, his change-up is “already an incredibly effective pitch.” ...
According to the Giants announcer, Mike Krukow, who says he has spoken with Lincecum about this, Lincecum only throws a two-seamer, he hasn't learned to throw a four-seamer yet. He says that once Lincecum learns to do that, the league is going to have to watch out.
Carlos Gomez, who sometimes writes for The Hardball Times, basically agreed. He told me that if this is true, and if Lincecum then learns to throw the four-seamer effectively, he should be able to throw more fastballs by hitters. He feels that with his arm slot and velocity, Lincecum should really be throwing four-seamers all the time (Carlos wrote one of his profile of a pitchers mechanics about Lincecum once, so he's familiar with Lincecum's form; it might have even been for THT if I remember right).