Avoiding the hook
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The Hardball Times found this 2/21/2008 on www.hardballtimes.com [flag] |
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Comments (3)
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stevet Excellent article, David.
One quibble: the excerpt of the note from your reader, in which Sandy Koufax is paired with Pedro Martinez as a "little guy," goes unchallanged.
Where in the world does this notion come from that Koufax was a little guy? He wasn't little at all, in either height or build: he was tall, broad-shouldered, big-butted, and muscular. His size and build, in fact, were almost exactly equal to that of Nolan Ryan.
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GuyM David: More good work. In your second study (BB rates), I wonder if the greater longevity of the low-BB group might hide a superior performance? If they played more time in their mid-/late-30s, they would have an age decline missed by the hi-BB group (especially if the hi-BB group disproportionately had their careers cut short by injury). So it might be interesting to compare the two groups' FIPs over a limited age range, maybe 26-31, if sample size doesn't get absurdly small.
And I second Tango's request for the breakdown of BB, K, HR and BABIP, pre- and post-age-26 (for the first study too).
Links (2)
Buehrle gets the Opening Day start
Published 2/22/2008 by thewizardsofoz <info@southsidesox.com> at South Side Sox: Front Page Posts
... Mark Gonzales reports it too. ***** In other news, Jim asks for your photo/video requests from his trip to Tucson. Coop's Sweet 45. Fallout from Ryan Howard winning his arbitration hearing. Throwing Smoke (and Mirrors). THT: The worst outfield for the dough, and Avoiding the hook.
Projecting Pitching Longevity Revisited
Published 2/24/2008 by mgl (mgl8@cox.net) at THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball
... Another excellent, albeit incomplete again, look, by David Gassko, at whether and how we can project one pitcher to have a longer career than another, other than by our estimate of their overall pitching talent, as measured by something like regressed FIP (or simply a good context-neutral pitching projection). ...
In order to have the same FIP, the high-walk pitchers will either have very high K, or somewhat low HR totals. It would be good if you can provide the full stat-line: BB, HR, K per BFP, as well as BABIP, for the before and after.