Best Outfield Arms of 2007
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The Hardball Times found this 1/7/2008 on www.hardballtimes.com [flag] |
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Comments (13)
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sdanne +3I did a quick check-back on a few names from last year (yes, some of us read the old articles) and found that outfielders with a high kill rate in 2006 didn't have a high hold rate in 2007. You mentioned that Ethier might have a higher hold rate in 2008 because of his high 2007 kill rate, but the few names that I checked (hawpe, taveras, magglio, nady, and a couple others) didn't have that happen. In many cases, the hold rate actually went down the next season.-
walshj58 These are good points. I have always wanted to study this very thing: how Hold+ follows Kill+ in time (or if it even does). You would think that it does, but we don't know how long the time lag is.
Remember, also, that there is some statistical noise in these 1-year numbers.
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JopeX37 This article supports what I've been thinking for a while about the Twins, and that's that we could have a thoroughly silly defensive outfield next year. With Young in left, Cuddyer in right and possibly Melky Cabrera in center, you wouldn't be able to run on anyone at all. And we're shaping up to have a pretty fly ball-laden pitching staff too. Could be pretty fun to watch. -
JinAZ Hi John,
Thanks for once again running these numbers. Any chance that you'd be willing to release a spreadsheet with all players from 2007? I'd love to include these numbers in my player value calculations for all Reds players (if not all MLB players). Thanks, Justin
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walshj58 Hi Justin,
I'm certainly willing to post the full data set. It'll take me a couple a few days to get organized, but I will make the data available. -John
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skyking162 Any chance of getting the 2005 - 2007 data all in one spreadsheet?
Awesome work, yet again. Thanks.
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JinAZ That's fantastic--thanks!! -j
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The Zoner Fantastic work. Interesting that the Sox now have two negs in Dye and Swisher.
Thanks much!
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charlie swagger is there a way of adjusting for park dimensions? right fielders in home parks with short right field porches, should, given a random distribution in hits, on average, be making shorter throws than those whose home parks have more ground to cover. -
tiger337 Great work John! I'd also be interested in using the spreadsheet to update the defensive value of all outfielders.
Lee
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walshj58 For those asking for a spreadsheet with all the data, have a look here:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/more-outfield-arms-results/
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JinAZ This is absolutely wonderful! Thank you!
Just out of curiosity, do the pre-2007 data include the park factor stuff you added this year? I'll use it either way--I was just curious.
-Justin
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walshj58 No problem.
This year's analysis did not include any park factors, but rather included "extra assists". And yes, this new feature was also applied to the previous years. So, you will find small differences compared to the results previously published for 2005 and 2006.
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Links (33)
THT: Walsh: Best Outfield Arms of 2007
Published 1/7/2008 at BBTF's Baseball Primer Newsblog
THT: Walsh: Best Outfield Arms of 2007 Cripes...even Ida Greenberg left Juan Pierre in the ashes dust. I usually, for purely selfish reasons, hope that Ichiro will take the top ranking in my analysis. In 2005 Suzuki came out about average (in right field) and in 2006 he ranked fifth among right fielders (5.1 Runs/200), but that didn’t meet the expectations of his many fans, a goodly number of whom wrote to say that my rankings were, ahem, less than accurate. His 2007 performance, now in center, was almost a carbon copy of 2006. I suppose I should be expecting some email. ...
Reds Outfield Arms - Concerns about Griffey
Published 1/7/2008 by Justin at On Baseball and the Reds
John Walsh has released his annual report on outfielder arms. With the exception of the Fans' scouting report data, all of the fielding ratings that I've discussed on this blog of late look solely at the ability of outfielders to catch fly balls. That's typically the most important component of outfielding, but preventing baserunners from advancing via either "kills" or "holds" can also be an important factor in a fielder's performance, which is what makes Walsh's arm ratings so valuable. ...
Monday Morning Mets Newsstand
Published 1/7/2008 by Eric Simon <amazinavenue@gmail.com> at Amazin' Avenue
... At The Hardball Times, John Walsh ranks the best outfield arms of 2007. Carlos Beltran ranks about league average for center fielders; Shawn Green was close to the bottom of the pile among right fielders; Moises Alou, somewhat surprisingly, ranked fifth among big league left fielders. ...
Monday morning mish-mash
Published 1/7/2008 by Jim at Sox Machine
... last year ... and Kenny Williams traded him three days later. *********************** John Walsh at The Hardball Times released his Best Outfield Arms of 2007 . White Sox outfielders finished as follows: No Sox player qualified in left field, but ...
Early Morning Reads
Published 1/7/2008 by frankg4e at Fantasy Sports Outlook
... Baseball read, John Walsh has evaluated outfield arms over at The Hardball Times and you might be surprised who tops the list. Tim(mlbtraderumors) at RotoAuthority.com has a list of the ...
Roundup - PEDs, Tobacco and Alcohol
Published 1/7/2008 by Dave Rouleau at Baseball Digest Daily
... Clemens filed a defamation suit against his ex-trainer on Sunday. Steroid Nation , NY Times . - Scott Soshnick, at Bloomberg.com, takes a shot at another drug that should quit the world of baseball: tobacco. Ben K., of River Ave. Blues, talks about the alcohol problem in baseball , after Jim Leyritz killed a woman after driving through a red light, drunk. - HOF comparison: Jim Rice vs Tony Perez . - John Walsh takes a look at the best oufield arms of 2007 in the major leagues. - Viva El Birdos analyzes the ...
More Spring Training Thoughts
Published 1/7/2008 by Geoff Young at Ducksnorts
... items of potential interest:
Greg Maddux talks about steroids.
John @ MadFriars chats with Portland Beavers broadcaster Rich Burk.
Dave Studeman has made a boatload of win shares statistics available for download.
If you do the YardBarker thing, I’m on there now.
Andy @ B-R.com’s Stat of the Day notes that Tony Gwynn once hit .400 over a 162-game stretch.
Brian Giles doesn’t have the strongest arm ...
links for 2008-01-07
Published 1/7/2008 by billfer at The Detroit Tiger Weblog
... Royals Review :: A Kansas City Royals Blog- Sad Songs Say So Much
Nice capsules of the AL Central
Best Outfield Arms of 2007 — The Hardball Times
John Walsh runs his annual analysis. Maggs was a hair below average and Curtis ...
Who has the best oufield arm in baseball?
Published 1/7/2008 by garyclark at Sports Frog
... I guarantee you it will surprise you. If you enjoy baseball, John Walsh's piece on outfield arms at Hardball Times is required reading. It is, without a doubt, the most interesting and informative baseball article I've read throughout what has been the most interesting offseason in baseball history. ...
Brian Giles. Khalil Alpha. Subliminal bricks.
Published 1/7/2008 by Dex <info@gaslampball.com> at Gaslamp Ball
... First, I've discovered that Brian Giles possibly has the worst arm for a rightfielder. That's OK though, because we don't really crush on Brian Giles for his arm. We crush on him for his hoochiemama ass. ...
Some Quick Links
Published 1/7/2008 by Sky at skyking162
... John Walsh today published his outfielder arm ratings for 2007. Many fielding systems out there ignore fielding (including my 2007 player values), so this is a necessary addendum. Some interesting things I noticed: ...
We're bad at everything
Published 1/8/2008 by Pat at Where have you gone, Andy Van Slyke?
One of the things that constantly amazes me during the baseball season is how the Pirates almost always seem to be awful at everything. Bad offense, bad pitching, bad defense, everything. Today, the Hardball Times did their yearly off-season analysis of outfield arms. As you'd expect, the results were not pretty for Pirate fans. Xavier Nady clocked in with the fifth worse right field arm last year and Nate McLouth displayed the fifth worse centerfield arm. Surprisingly, Jason Bay rated the eighth best left-field arm, somehow clocking in slightly above average. ...
Outfield Guns Version 2007
Published 1/8/2008 by davidbloom at BaseballHappenings.com
... They’re back! The Hardball Times release they’re 2007 version of this metric. What was interesting to me is Upton and ex-Ray Delmon Young showing up on the top of the list. Again, ...
Twins Have Arms
Published 1/8/2008 by Twins Territory at Twins Territory ()
John Walsh of The Hardball Times just did an overview of the best arms in baseball, and surly enough, the Twins had multiple players near the top of the three outfield lists. ...
Alfonso Soriano: Throwin' Fool
Published 1/8/2008 by Cubnut at A Hundred Next Years
... Writing for The Hardball Times Monday, John Walsh did his annual analysis of outfielders' abilities to abuse, intimidate and obliterate baserunners. Soriano, who tied for the Major League lead with 19 outfield assists in 2007 and recorded 22 assists in '06 when no other LF had more than 12(!), not only "completely lapped" his fellow leftfielders in '07 according to Hughes, but "lapped them two or three times." ...
The truth is the truth. It is what it is.
Published 1/8/2008 by stoeten at Drunk Jays Fans
... According to some fine work by John Walsh of America's Most Wanted the Hardball Times, Alex Rios has been arrested for executing several members of a rival drug cartel the fourth best arm in the majors among right fielders. ...
Best Arm in Baseball?
Published 1/8/2008 by A.S. at East Windup Chronicle
... Very cool piece written by John Walsh, who here presents his annual baseball arm analysis, which, as much as I tried to poke holes in it as I read it is a great study. ...
Upton top CF arm
Published 1/8/2008 by Matt Bishoff <info@draysbay.com> at DRaysBay
John Walsh, conducted his survey on outfield throwing arms for the 3rd consecutive season over at Hardball Times, you can see the entire article here. Thanks to RJ for showing me this link. ...
Best Outfield Arms
Published 1/8/2008 at Twins Nation Blog
... John Walsh posted analysis of the best outfield arms of 2007 over at The Hardball Times. The entire piece is worth the read, but I just wanted to point out the Twins that appeared on the lists. ...
White Sox GM Kenny Williams is Delusional
Published 1/9/2008 by Perry at ChicagoSportsBlogs : Non Compete : WhiteSox
... I found while goofing off at work today, courtesy of the SportsFrog.com gang. The article is written by John Walsh for The HardBall Times. In it Walsh breaks down, using pretty amazing statistical analysis who has the best outfield arm in baseball. Go read it. I was curious to see if any White Sox players would show up on the list. JD is middle of the pack in the AL, and our new center fielder is practically last. That makes this trade even more curious. Swisher isn't that great of a hitter and based on what I just read in this analysis, he isn't that great in the field too. ...
[THE HANGOVER] Manatees Anticipating Carlos Pena's Home Runs
Published 1/9/2008 by The Professor at Rays Index
... he has more room for error, and psychologically, he probably thrives with the freedom to just "let 'er rip". Crawford's poor ranking is no surprise as he does have below-average arm strength and often has the accuracy of a blind man. Still. 20th? Among left fielders? The left fielder is generally the outfielder with the weakest arm and Crawford is one of the worst of the bunch, meaning CC ranks among the worst arms in baseball. Maybe he should try throwing right-handed. [The Hardball Times] ...
Outfield Arms - 2007
Published 1/10/2008 by Lee Panas at Tiger Tales: A Detroit Tigers Blog
... Earlier this week, John Walsh - a writer for The Hardball Times - wrote his annual report on outfielder arms . With the exception of the Fan Fielding Survey, all the measures that I have discussed in this series have focused on an outfielder's ability to catch fly balls. That is the most important part of outfield defense but the ability to stop the running game by throwing runners out or preventing them to advance is also important. Using the the ...
Wednesday Randomness
Published 1/10/2008 by Jim McLennan <info@azsnakepit.com> at AZ Snakepit
... for baseball. It's got the makings for a great baseball city." However, he does play down wanting to stay close to Phoenix, pointing out that "Once you get out of Arizona the plane flights are pretty much all the same." The paper also mentions that there is a large Giants fan base locally, and San Francisco's contract with their current Triple-A affiliate in Fresno expires after 2008 as well, and the Dodgers team in Las Vegas, the 51's, are under new ownership too. The Hardball Times analyzes outfield arms . No-one in RF for us qualified, but Chris Young and Eric Byrnes both ...
Published 1/10/2008 by Aaron at AaronGleeman.com
... Over at The Hardball Times, John Walsh analyzed advanced defensive and base-running numbers to determine which outfielders displayed the most effective arms in 2007. Here's a brief explanation of his methodology: ...
Best Outfield Arms: let's talk sabermetrics!
Published 1/10/2008 by SoxDevil <info@overthemonster.com> at Over the Monster
John Walsh at the Hardball Times has released his 3rd annual "Best outfield arms" report. I highly suggest reading the entire thing here. First, a primer from John Walsh: ...
Pathetically lame blogger battle!
Published 1/11/2008 by Ken Dynamo at GO METS DIE BRAVES
... And if you read this article from The Hardball Times, Beltran is worth almost 4 runs less than Rowand defensively when it comes to their arms. Granted, that's a rough measure, and I do believe Beltran is better than Rowand defensively overall (better range), but they're not that far apart for it to have a consequence in the figures. ...
Ranking the center fielders
Published 1/17/2008 by Lee Panas at Tiger Tales: A Detroit Tigers Blog
... Today, I am going to rank the center fielders. The first 10 columns of the table below are the same ones as displayed on the infielder tables but there are two additional columns after the ARS column. The 11th column (Arm) lists the runs saved per 200 opportunities as defined in John Walsh's article on outfielder arms . The final column (Total) is the sum of columns 10 and 11 or runs saved by range and arm combined. Note that we didn't need a throwing arm analysis for infielders because infielder throws are part of the typical ground outs which define the range analysis for ...
Ranking the right fielders
Published 1/19/2008 by Lee Panas at Tiger Tales: A Detroit Tigers Blog
... Today, I am going to rank the right fielders. As with the center fielders, columns 4-8 of the table below give the runs saved per 150 game estimates for 5 different range metrics, column 9 is the estimate for the fan fielding survey and column 10 is the average of columns 4-8. The 11th column (Arm) lists the runs saved per 200 opportunities as defined in John Walsh's article on outfielder arms . The final column (Total) is the sum of columns 10 and 11 or total runs saved per 150 games. John reminded me today that runs saved by outfield arms is still a relatively new area so we ...
Ranking the left fielders in 2007
Published 1/20/2008 by Lee Panas at Tiger Tales: A Detroit Tigers Blog
... Today, I am going to rank the left fielders. As with the other outfield positions, columns 4-8 of the table below give the runs saved per 150 game estimates for 5 different range metrics, column 9 is the estimate for the fan fielding survey and column 10 (ARS) is the average of columns 4-8. The 11th column (Arm) lists the runs saved per 200 opportunities as defined in John Walsh's article on outfielder arms . The final column (Total) is the sum of columns 10 and 11 or total runs saved per 150 games. Craig Monroe had an ARS of 1.3 and Arm rating of 4.3 for a total of 5.6 runs ...
2007 Defensive-Spectrum Beaters
Published 1/30/2008 by Pip at Fungoes
... as a first baseman). Having played left field the last two years, he may actually be better suited for right field, with a surprisingly above-average arm and an 89.90 PMR in 2007 (read: nowhere to go but up!). Similarly, Ryan Ludwick stands a good chance of beating the odds if he moves to center field, since he had an unremarkable 99.04 PMR in left field last year. ...
That's What You Get Charlie! You Get Fork Stabbed!
Published 3/6/2008 by Andrew <info@truebluela.com> at True Blue LA
... in baseball over the last three years according to +/-, with a solid arm, and he at least has a chance of helping offensively. At the very least, he's probably better than Juan Pierre. ...
How to make your team better by firing your third base coach
Published 4/3/2008 by Pizza Cutter at Statistically Speaking
... (and I’ve looked at them before, more below), and finally some good metrics for arms (although I found out about them too late to fully incorporate them). ...
How much better is Soriano than Murton?
Published 30 days ago by Colin Wyers at GoatRiders of the Apocalypse -
... , which doesn't measure arm strength. Soriano has an elite throwing arm for a left fielder, so let's go ahead and say 5 runs over a season. ...
