BP: Pelton: Pushing the Pace
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ashman posted 11/14/2007 from www.basketballprospectus.com [flag] |
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NBA
Don Nelson
Comments (11)
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Jason +4Kind of crazy that it has taken so long, given that the league has been tweaking the rules (3-point line, forearm-checking, etc.) for more than a decade to try to boost scoring.-
tziller Great point.
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Doctor Dribbles Anyone know why the nadir in 1999 (and corresponding peak in 2000)? I suppose I could do some research to discover the answer to the latter, but my guess for the former is that the strike forced teams to play slow (to correspond lack of training camps/players out of shape/lack of time for new offenses, etc.) in 1999.-
Jason Yeah, for the reasons you cite, most people seem to credit the strike for that 1999 downturn. I like to think that Yinka Dare's retirement had something to do with the temporary uplift of 2000.
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Doctor Dribbles You know, with this writer's strike, I really think there's room for a new late-night comedy show...material like that, what's stopping you, Ziller, and the rest of the NorCal blogging crew?
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kpelton The 1999-00 spike is an excellent question. The lockout explanation makes sense, but I can't see why pace would go up so much the next year and so temporarily.
Three teams really played much faster - Detroit, Cleveland and Orlando. The Cavaliers replaced Mike Fratello (always a good move for league pace) and Doc Rivers coached his first team to second place in pace factor. The Pistons are another head-scratcher - Alvin Gentry coached all of 1998-99 and 2/3 of 1999-00 and they went from 27th in pace to fourth.
Hmm, I guess George Irvine might have been partly responsible for that. I didn't realize his 2000-01 Pistons were the fastest team in the league.
But, of course, none of that explains the dramatic shift at the league level. I'd say the surprising success of the Kings might have played a factor in 1999-00, but why would that have disappeared thereafter?
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Jason I ran a quick team-by-team pace factor comparison between 99-00 and 00-01. Almost every squad slowed in 00-01, but these teams dropped by at least a point more than everyone else.
Team Pace Notable Additions/Subtractions
Pacers -3.7 -Bird,-Smits,+Isiah,+O'Neal
Rockets -3.8 +M. Taylor
Magic -4.1 -Atkins,-Wallace,+McGrady
Clippers -4.3 Wholesale changes
Hornets -4.5 -E. Jones,+Mashburn
Cavs -4.5 -Sura,+Harpring
Kings -4.9 +The Christies-
tziller I can attest the Kings got sane in 2001. Jason Williams was a lunatic in 2000, but had a nice year in 2001. Fewer turnovers = slower pace, with all other factors held constant. But actually, turnovers stayed similar on a team level, so the mystery remains. It could be that because Williams was focused on limiting mistakes, he wasn't as carefree and (by extension) fast. This jives with my memories.
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Digital Headbutt The early 90s were before my time as a sports fan, but why the sharp and continuous dip in points between 1993 and 1997? Was is due to the retirement of all the greats from the 80s?-
Doctor Dribbles If you mean dip in pace, it's what Pelton alludes at the beginning of the story: The Pistons' "Jordan Rules," and later, Pat Riley's Knicks. While the fast pace was great if you had the best scoring machine in the history of basketball, the other 26 MJ-less teams were looking for some edge to compete...hence, the increasingly universal focus on defensive principles, slowing the game and so on.
Interestingly, and as you note, the departure of the '80s greats (and the appearance of the callow '90s kids), also contributed to the impression that the league was in trouble and would be star-less post-Jordan...but, as far as I can tell, there were actually more players performing at the highest levels in 1997 (or even more removed from the '80s heyday, 2001) than in 1993, if you normalize for pace.
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kpelton It's also worth noting that the early '90s were the most extreme period of a general trend toward slower play that dates back to at least the '70s.
If you look at pace in the NCAA, and even the WNBA, it has generally slowed as time has gone by, outside of changes to the shot clocks. It will be interesting to see if the NBA's efforts to speed up the game can overcome that trend over the long run.
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Links (3)
The NBA's Live Ball Era Has Arrived
Published 11/15/2007 by Tom Ziller at FanHouse
... Phoenix has been the darling of up-tempo basketball for a few years now, but Kevin Pelton revealed at Basketball Prospectus that the Suns are only the 7th fastest team in the league so far this year, even though they've gotten faster themselves. Considering only two seasons ago Phoenix was ...
Published 11/16/2007 by Aaron at AaronGleeman.com
... and had a well-done article this week about how NBA teams are playing at a faster pace than they have since 1992. Actually, I'm not so sure that Pelton is still a "friend of AG.com." He lives in Seattle and ...
11.16.07 Game Thread: Sonics vs. Hawks
Published 11/16/2007 by Big Chris at Sonics basketball will return!
... are not playing to their potential, so we have a shot at win #2 tonight. The Hawks hold the dubious distinction as being the team the Sonics have beaten the most consecutive times currently (Sonics have won the last 7 meetings).
Insider Preview presented by Kevin Pelton.
Hawks blog roundtable.
NBA All-Star 2008 Ballot. Vote early, and vote often!
For you NBA nerds, KP wrote an interesting piece for Basketball Prospectus on “Pushing the Pace: The NBA gets faster“.
