Brainwashing by Boras

Brainwashing by Boras (flag)

www.hardballtimes.com — Scott Boras is priming baseball and the public for A-Rod's opt-out

MLB

Scott Boras

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The Hardball Times found this 6/22/2007

12 Comments

cephyn

+2

Clogs the bases?
Dusty Baker, is that you?

Posted 6/22/2007 respond (flag)
- John Brattain
  
  +2
  
  Wow, that one line has gotten a lot of attention (especially in e-mails). I should've worded it better.
  My bad.
  That remark wasn't meant as being critical of Thomas's on-base skills. While I appreciate Thomas' OBP, it generally takes three hits to score him. With the Jays in 2007, getting three hits has been a rarity in any inning. It would be nice if Thomas could go first-to-third on a hit, or be able to tag up from second on a fly ball and get to third.
  
  It was more a comment directed at the lineup as a whole--that his OBP hasn't been as much of an asset as it could otherwise be since the guys behind him need to get a hit/walk to get him to advance 90 feet. Hence his OBP is blunted because the guys batting 7-8-9 aren't likely to get him home since a hit/walk from one of them is unlikely yet alone three.
  
  When you sign a guy like Thomas, you're not acquiring him for his walks, you're getting him because he can rake. The walks are nice, but it only gets you as far as first base. They say you can't steal first (obviously). However you can't walk your way to second, third, and home. Once Thomas reaches base, he needs a lot more help than most players to get around the bases because of his lack of speed.
  
  Thomas has to realize that being aggressive earlier in the count instead of waiting for walks might serve the offense better. He’s got enough skill to recover from an 0-1, or a 1-2 count and still get on base, but he should be taking more shots at pitches earlier in the count. Thomas has to realize that due to his spot in the lineup, there isn’t enough hitting behind him to consistently get him home so he might be well-served being a bit more aggressive and make getting some doubles so he starts at second rather than first.
  Thomas himself realizes his mindset at the plate is off and that he should be looking for balls to drive rather that coaxing walks.
  
  A better way or wording that that part of the article would've been: "Thomas' OBP is blunted because of his lack speed puts the onus on the hitters behind him to move him along and they haven't been up to the task." I should've mentioned too that it's partly Gibbons fault for not better utilizing Thomas' on base skills to score runs by putting better hitters behind him.
  It was one of the reasons I criticized J.P. The Jays need help at the bottom the lineup. It has been obvious for a couple of months.
  Having re-read what I wrote, I can see why folks are taking me to task. I knew what I was trying to say, yet I didn't take the time to really explain where I was coming from.
  Best Regards
  John
  
  Posted 6/22/2007 respond (flag)
  - cephyn
    
    +2
    
    One of the things we forget though is - what is the other option? Who are they going to run out there instead of Thomas? Would you prefer a lower OBP if the guy was faster? How much lower, how much faster?
    Thomas is who he is. The game is filled with slower guys who can mash. They are valuable and should be used so.
    Now with this, you're saying he's not being used properly. That's an opinion (that you've supported here) that I can respect.
    
    Posted 6/22/2007 respond (flag)
  - Jacob
    
    +1
    
    John,
    It's neat that you revisited the "clog the bases" comment. I'm sure you are, at the very least by now, familiar with the famous Dusty Baker quote.
    The glaring problem with this post however, is that it is merely an expansion of the "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me" philosophy. You've essentially argued that Thomas should sacrifice some of his walks, swing at pitches outside of the strikezone or early in the count to increase the numbers of balls he puts in play. You've argued that because of his speed he needs to take fewer pitches, and be more aggressive at the plate.
    That is THE clog up the bases manifesto. It's cool, but you should probably just own up to it. Take the podium and say, "Hello, I'm John, and clogging up the bases isn't all that great to me."
    :)
    
    Posted 6/25/2007 respond (flag)
Geremiah

+2

Criticizing the team is one thing. Saying Thomas should be "looking for more balls to rake" seems bizarre. Thomas has a certain skill set and a certain way of hitting. They work very, very well. He is great at ignoring pitches out of the strike zone and crushing pitches in it. And by drawing walks, he forces pitchers to choose between walking him and throwing strikes.
Swinging at more bad balls would change every aspect of this dynamic. Why do you think his overall hitting ability would stay the same with a fundamentally different approach to hitting? Using statistics to say what players are good is one (good) thing; using them to say how they should play differently is so much more iffy.

Posted 6/23/2007 respond (flag)
- John Brattain
  
  0
  
  That's not the problem. Thomas lets very hittable pitches go by early in the count. Those are the pitches I'm saying he should be more aggressive with.
  Don't forget, most pitchers like to get ahead [on the count], especially to power guys like Thomas. They don't want to have to throw a 2-0, 3-1 meatball if they can avoid it.
  Thomas by his own admission has stated he needs to go up there looking for a ball to drive rather than just trying to get on base via the walk. In 2007, of Thomas' 46 walks, Thomas has come around to score six times.
  Six!
  Twenty of those BB have come with men on base. Of those 20, nine have some with a man on third. With men on base, don't you feel that a pitcher would rather have Thomas walk than get a hold of one?
  Best Regards
  John
  
  Posted 6/23/2007 respond (flag)
  - Geremiah
    
    +2
    
    If you're seeing Thomas pass on good pitches and Thomas himself says he needs to hit differently, OK. But I just wanted to mention that the further analysis seems off to me. If Thomas is up with men on base and the pitcher would really rather walk him, why would the pitcher do anything but throw absolute junk? There's no reason to throw a meatball on 2-0, and therefore no reason to fear falling behind in the count, if a walk is considered a good outcome. If it's really the case that a walk is what the opposing team *prefers*, there's not a lot Thomas can do about the situation except swing at junk. If they're throwing him hittable pitches, it means they prefer the showdown to the free pass.
    
    Posted 6/25/2007 respond (flag)
John Brattain

+1

If you're seeing Thomas pass on good pitches and Thomas himself says he needs to hit differently, OK
That's what I'm saying. I've seen him pass on too many good pitches. I'm not suggesting he swing at balls--that's idiotic, but look for the strikes early in the count when pitchers are trying to get ahead.
He's let too many go by--especially with men on base. As I mentioned above, of Thomas' then 46 walks, he's come into score six times and had two RBI (BB w/bases loaded).
Pitchers are trying to get ahead early, if they don't, they walk him. But they're not trying to throw first pitch balls to Thomas (this isn't Barry Bonds circa 2003), they're trying to get him out, not put him on.
Best Regards
John

Posted 6/26/2007 respond (flag)
John Brattain

+1

Jacob:
You wrote:
The glaring problem with this post however, is that it is merely an expansion of the "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me" philosophy. You've essentially argued that Thomas should sacrifice some of his walks, swing at pitches outside of the strikezone or early in the count to increase the numbers of balls he puts in play. You've argued that because of his speed he needs to take fewer pitches, and be more aggressive at the plate.
That is THE clog up the bases manifesto. It's cool, but you should probably just own up to it. Take the podium and say, "Hello, I'm John, and clogging up the bases isn't all that great to me."
If you look in the post above you, you'll note that I said: "Thomas himself realizes his mindset at the plate is off and that he should be looking for balls to drive rather that coaxing walks."
"Balls to drive" aren't pitches out of the strike zone. Check BB-Ref and check the various counts Thomas has been in. I've seen it, Thomas admits that he's passed on hittable pitches.
Again, you look at the 46 BB and the results of them. Some of those walks came as the result of Thomas passing on hittable pitches with RISP. Those 46 walks resulted in eight runs: six runs scored and two RBI.
Was that the optimal outcome of those 46 PA? Could Thomas have produced more runs by swinging at strikes early in the count or were the Jays better served by his walking?
Walks are good, OBP is important, but scoring runs is what wins games. Runners on second, runners on second and third can't score on a walk regardless of who is at the plate.
Allow me to give you an example: a while back, I wondered why Josh Towers was relegated to the bullpen rather than Gustavo Chacin. Both surrendered about the same number of base runners and Towers had better control.
Chacin gave up more BB/9, Towers more H/9. Then it dawned on me: Suppose you're the opposing manager--if the other team has a man on third and you have to choose between two pitchers to face the next hitter. Both pitchers have almost identical WHIPs. Pitcher A gives up more walks, but Pitcher B gives up more hits; are you going to choose the pitcher more likely to give up the hit or the walk?
You're going to pick the pitcher less likely to give up the hit. A walk leaves the man on third, a hit scores him.
Yes, if he walks, you still have a shot at a three run bomb but you still haven't scored a run, plus it sets up the double play. If he hits, you have a run scored on the board and a shot at a two run bomb and even if the next batter hits into a DP at least you've still gotten the run home.
Both situations can potentially give you three runs, but one of the options gives you a run guaranteed.
Remember, we're talking Frank Thomas and the 2007 Blue Jays not Joe Morgan and the 1975 Reds. The Jays, for the most part, simply have not had the firepower behind Thomas to optimize his OBP but they do have the talent to optimize his BA/SLG.
Thomas, going up to the plate looking to walk rather than hit has not maximized his own ability or the offensive potential of the Jays. The results speak for themselves: Both in Thomas' stats to the point where I wrote the column and the Jays overall offensive totals have shown that Thomas' OBP abilities aren't what they've needed from him.
A screwdriver is a useful tool. You can hold a screwdriver backwards and still drive in a nail (eventually). A hammer works much better and you can drive in more nails in less time allowing you to build more things that will require the screwdriver's usage. But to look at and use OBP/BB as the universal tool will eventually show up in your workmanship and production.
Over the last 10 games, Thomas BB/AB has remained static but he's batting .314 and SLG .829.
The Jays have won seven of those games. Had Thomas looked to walk more in his last 35 AB would the Jays have been any better off?
Not likely. Thomas has more value when he's hitting, not walking.
A walk is only as good as a hit when (a) you have speed to take extra bases or (b) when you've got strong bats behind you and (c) there's less than 2 outs and nobody is on third base.
It's not unlike what you want your lightning-fast leadoff hitter with the .400 SLG to do; on a 3-2 count, do you want him to focus on getting on base or jacking one out? What, you don't like home runs? Home runs are bad for your team? No, his spot in the batting order and his particular skill set tells you that he's more valuable getting on in any way possible rather than looking to go yard.
Getting back to Thomas hit/walk point ... Thomas has had neither A nor B. The Jays would've been better served with hits even if it cost him a couple of OBP points.
Best Regards
John

Posted 6/26/2007 respond (flag)
- Jacob
  
  +1
  
  It's not unlike what you want your lightning-fast leadoff hitter with the .400 SLG to do; on a 3-2 count, do you want him to focus on getting on base or jacking one out? What, you don't like home runs? Home runs are bad for your team? No, his spot in the batting order and his particular skill set tells you that he's more valuable getting on in any way possible rather than looking to go yard.
  You're not saying that a home run would kill a rally? right?
  Walks are good, OBP is important, but scoring runs is what wins games. Runners on second, runners on second and third can't score on a walk regardless of who is at the plate.
  Right, no one is arguing that walks are more important than runs or hits. The issue is, do you trade walks for balls in play?
  Assume in every one of those at bats where Thomas took a walk he was given a pitch to drive, a hittable pitch. Assume on those hittable pitches, Thomas can put 100% of them into play, also assume that he posts a .333 BABIP for all of those instead of his .244 he's posted this season so far.
  Would you trade 45 of his walks for 15 hits?
  
  Posted 6/27/2007 respond (flag)
John Brattain

+2

Jacob:
Tune in to Friday's column. You'll need the following: torches, pitchforks, multiple bundles of dry wood and a mob, errr bunch of friends. There you will be shocked and appalled by what will be revealed. Leave the women, children and faint of heart behind. Be sure to take a couple of Gravol and come on an empty stomach. You will be horrified, aghast and utterly dismayed with the words you will read.
Your life, as you know it, will be fully and irrevocably altered. If you have a pre-existing heart condition be sure to have your affairs in order. Consult a physician before beginning any exercise program. Some side effect may include vomiting, diarrhea, swelling of the tounge, dizzyness, blindess, impotence, prostate acne, loss of cognitive function, bladder control, Paris Hilton joining the Spice Girls as "Promiscuous Spice" volcanic activity, seismic tremors, plagues of locusts, the opening the fifth through seventh seals of Revelation and a matter/antimatter reactions which will cause the universe to implode in a cataclysmic 'big crunch.'
If you experience any of these symptoms be sure to contact your health care provider. Take on an empty stomach and do not attempt to operate heavy machinery. If you catch fire, stop drop and roll, if you choose to run, look both ways before you cross the street. If you ignore the warnings and you end up with two broken legs, don't come running to me.
You have been put on notice. My name is Indigo Montoya, you killed my father, prepare to die. Luke, I'm your father. Remember who you are, you are my son and the one true king. Life is like a box of chocolates.
Offer not valid in all states, check with your dealer for details. Refund where applicable. Remember, only you can prevent forest fires. Any retransmission or rebroadcast of this game is strictly prohibited without the express written consent of Major League Baseball, the commisioner's office and the Toronto Blue Jays.
I hope that clears things up.
Best Regards
John

Posted 6/27/2007 respond (flag)
- Jacob
  
  +1
  
  well done John, I am definitely looking forward to the next article.
  :)
  Cheers,
  Jacob
  
  Posted 6/28/2007 respond (flag)