D-Fence!
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The Hardball Times found this 6/14/2007 on www.hardballtimes.com [flag] |
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MLB
Comments (8)
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David Gassko I think we use the same methodology. I simply take plays made (both in-and-out of zone) and divide by balls in-zone. I then subtract from that league average zone rating and multiply by balls in-zone to get plays above average. I multiply that number by a position-specific run value to get runs above average.-
Matthew Wait, so plays made on balls out of zone are included in this rating? If so, there's some ratings here that aren't passing my intuition test. -
walshj58 Hi David,
Actually, what you describe here is NOT what you do. I agree with Matthew that it doesn't sound right and it's not what Sean, Jinaz and others have done with the ZR data.
So I ran a few numbers myself and compared with your spreadsheet and found that what you really do is right:
calculate plays above average separately for in-zone and out-of-zone balls. The first part is simple: it's just player (ZR minus league ZR) times balls in-zone. The second piece can be estimated by: plays out-of-zone divided by balls-in-zone minus league average of same, all times balls-in-zone. This will give plays out-of-zone above average.Then combining the two numbers gives the overall plays above average.
Out of curiosity: how do you calculate the plays-to-run conversion? Can you share those numbers?
thanks,
John
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David Gassko How is that different from what I described (other than splitting the process in two)? Maybe the confusion is over my use of the word "zone rating" -- what I mean by zone rating here is All Outs/BIZ.-
walshj58 Oh, ok. then we're on the same page. BIS defines ZR as OIZ/BIZ and that's the number that THT has on its stat pages. That's how I got confused.
How about those play-to-run values?
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notsellingjeans David,
Great stuff. I haven't seen much of Sizemore in person, but I was surprised to see how low he scored, given his terrific athleticism. What are your/other people's thoughts?
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John Beamer Great stuff David -- thanks for bringing this back.
Nice to see Andruw rated highly in CF
Links (19)
More Mail
Published 6/14/2007 by JC at Sabernomics
... on Jayson Stark’s claim that Andruw Jones is overrated. Well, some more support for AJ just came in. Revised BIS zone ratings will soon be published at The Hardball Times, and David Gassko provides a list of the top and bottom three at each position. Andruw comes in second. I can’t vouch for these ratings, because I know very little about the new ZR metric, but the ranking is consistent with the Plus/Minus ranking.
Dodger Thoughts: Flag Day Fever
Published 6/14/2007 at Dodger Thoughts
... , playing 95 innings in that time. With the Dodgers losing frequently last week and no one producing, Dodger manager Grady Little probably felt he needed every inch of Martin until the cavalry arrived. Well, as we'll see below, the cavalry has arrived. The Dodgers have two off days in the next five - after that, it's straight baseball from June 19 to July 8. Martin should get at least one day off a week. First base: Despite James Loney's 3-for-9, one-homer season debut, we still shouldn't get too excited about production from this position, relative to the rest of the league. Not yet, anyway. Nevertheless, just to have an option beyond the slumping Nomar Garciaparra (who is struggling defensively as well, according to today's Hardball Times ) is a relief. A recent article quoted Little as saying Loney would get a couple of starts per week. That's a fairly huge committment given Garciaparra's reputation. If Loney prod
THT: Gassko: D-Fence!
Published 6/14/2007 at BBTF's Baseball Primer Newsblog
... THT: Gassko: D-Fence! Gassko takes a look at the best fielders of 2007...so far. Shortstop Some things just never change: Adam Everett is at the top, Derek Jeter at the bottom, just like it has been for the past many years. As much as something in the baseball world can be a travesty, the fact that Jeter has multiple Gold Gloves and Everett has none is an absolute outrage. Hanley Ramirez’s poor rating is a bit surprising (not that he’s ever had good defensive numbers; just his fielding ratings haven’t been all that bad, either), but it certainly provides a boost to Jose Reyes in their battle to be the top shortstop in the National League. The man is so athletic though that I wouldn’t be surprised to see him turn around his fielding at some point, just like Reyes did last year. And since Royals fans have so little to be happy about these days, let us all rejoice in how many light years better than Angel Berroa Mr. Pena has
Rounding the Bases: No More Mustache Rides
Published 6/14/2007 by Adam Godson at Bugs & Cranks
... got the statheads all strung out. The busted out their calculators to see if Manny’s as bad in left as I thought. Yep. [ The Hardball Times]
Evaluating the 1st Round on Short Videos & Some Stats
Published 6/14/2007 by Russ <info@purplerow.com> at Purple Row
... were released today and David Gaskko checks in to see the leaders and the losers after the first two months or so of the season. Tulo's the only Rockies to make the list and that is as the third best defensive shortstop. He's saved 11 runs on the field. But, of course, we already knew how good Tulo was on the field before this.
Blue Jays Defensive Numbers Through June 14
Published 6/14/2007 by Bruce Wrigley at Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
... , David Gassko has a new article up summarizing (and crunching) some of the zone rating fielding data from Baseball Info Solutions for the first ten weeks of the season. David mentions only the leaders and trailers in his article, and there's only one Blue Jay who gets a look in, Alex Rios who is the #1 overall rightfielder in the majors. I thought it would be worthwhile to grab the data and see how the rest of the Blue Jays have fared... many thanks to David and THT for obtaining the data and boiling down the numbers into runs above/below average.
Why They Let The Fans Vote
Published 6/14/2007 by JP at Reds (and Blues)
... at The Hardball Times today, but David Gassko’s article their will make any fan of defensive metrics weep openly with joy. Really, it is quite acceptable for grown men to cry.
Quotebook: Cardinals 7, Royals 3
Published 6/14/2007 by Pip at Fungoes
... Though we criticized Miles’s lightweight hitting yesterday, he’s been reliable afield, both at second base and at short. THT’s recently released Zone Rating Runs has Miles with -1 ZRuns at both positions. It isn’t stellar, but he’s certainly very acceptable as a backup at both spots, better as he is than many everyday players at either position (including some big names). And the players he’s backing up aren’t too bad so far: Adam Kennedy is tied for third-best in MLB at 2B, and David Eckstein is tied for 14th at shortstop. All the same, without plus-defense, Miles’s case for being the righthanded-half of a second-base platoon diminishes — remember, the knock against Edgar Gonzalez was/is his glove.
Dodger Thoughts: Flag Day Fever
Published 6/15/2007 at Dodger Thoughts
... , playing 95 innings in that time. With the Dodgers losing frequently last week and no one producing, Dodger manager Grady Little probably felt he needed every inch of Martin until the cavalry arrived. Well, as we'll see below, the cavalry has arrived. The Dodgers have two off days in the next five - after that, it's straight baseball from June 19 to July 8. Martin should get at least one day off a week. First base: Despite James Loney's 3-for-9, one-homer season debut, we still shouldn't get too excited about production from this position, relative to the rest of the league. Not yet, anyway. Nevertheless, just to have an option beyond the slumping Nomar Garciaparra (who is struggling defensively as well, according to today's Hardball Times ) is a relief. A recent article quoted Little as saying Loney would get a couple of starts per week. That's a fairly huge committment given Garciaparra's reputation. If Loney prod
May 2007 Reds Review Part 3: Hitting and Pitching
Published 6/15/2007 by Justin at On Baseball and the Reds
... Phillips' month was solid, but somehow looks a bit disappointing for a guy who had a 22-game hitting streak in May. As always with him, it's that OBP that brings him down. Still, he's a middle infielder with nice power, and has the second-best range in baseball this year at 2B. When all is said and done, he may turn out to be Krivsky's best pickup.
links for 2007-06-15
Published 6/15/2007 by billfer at The Detroit Tiger Weblog
... D-Fence! — The Hardball Times
Father's Day Links
Published 6/17/2007 by Dan Agonistes at Dan Agonistes
... Defense - David Gassko at THT posts defensive metrics derived from Baseball Info Solution's Zone Rating data. Is it just me or do these numbers look really high (and low)? There's little doubt that the leaders and trailers he lists are the best and worst fielders but the magnitude of the numbers (+20 at first base for ...
The Reds’ Defense Stinks
Published 6/18/2007 by JP at Reds (and Blues)
... Well, Griffey’s current .957 OPS is third best among NL outfielders (as his 148 OPS+). Unfortunately, Griffey has to play in the field also. According to David Gassko at THT, Griffey has been the worst RFer in the NL. amassing -10 Zone Rating Runs. What exactly does that mean? It means a great deal of Griffey’s offense is negated by his defense. Loosely translated, those -10 runs are about .100 points of OPS at this point in the season, so we could say Griffey’s Defensive Adjusted OPS is about 857, which doesn’t exactly resonate All-Star. ...
Mark McGwire, Adam Dunn, and... Craig Monroe?
Published 6/18/2007 by Ian Casselberry <info@blessyouboys.com> at Bless You Boys
... But according to this Hardball Times article (via ...
The Morning Tailgate
Published 6/20/2007 at St. Louis Sports Magazine
... ] More from the Hardball Times…they’ve got a list of the best fielders in baseball this year and only one Cardinal makes the cut. [ Hardball Times ]
M’s D Rates a C
Published 6/22/2007 by Jeff Schwager at Bugs & Cranks
... But, as the saying goes, the truth is out there. And the truth is that the Mariners players are, with one notable exception, mediocre fielders or worse. Their fielding percentage is just ninth out of 14 teams in the American League. And this article published in The Hardball Times presents Baseball Info Solutions’ defensive zone ratings for every player in the majors (except pitchers and catchers), in terms of how many runs they save or cost their team compared to an average player; an average player gets a zero. Here is how the M’s rate: ...
BASEBALL: The Gloves of Flushing
Published 6/26/2007 by Baseball Crank at Baseball Crank
... A Hardball Times zone rating-based runs-saved analysis rates only one Mets defensive player among the top 3 at his position, rating David Wright as the best defensive player in baseball this year. ...
Brandon Phillips’ Leather
Published 7/3/2007 by JP at Reds (and Blues)
... , Phillips is the second best NL second baseman in fielding grounders hit in his zone (RZR). Not long ago, David Gassko published an excellent article that converted defense into a plus/minus run value. However, not everyone thinks in run values, plus some minds aren’t accustomed to placing that run value in context with overall offense. Many people are more comfortable with batting averages and OPS. ...
Second Half Preview: NL
Published 7/12/2007 by Jacob Wheatley-Schaller at Vegas Watch
... , but Utley’s defense is the difference here. This article is just one example of the huge difference in their defensive abilities. ...
It's great to hear that the updated ZR data will soon be available on the site!
Just curious -- what's your methodology for the /- translation? I dabbled with this myself earlier this year and would like to see if folks are doing anything differently. Thanks, -j