Evaluating April MLB Predictions (2008)

Links (22)

SAINT ANDREW’S NET: EQUINOX
Published 9/22/2008 by Matt at With Leather - Why, that's Satan's sports blog! With the homo-sexuals, and the nekkid women!
... Vegas Watch looks back on baseball analysts’ season predictions.  This may shock you, but ESPN “experts” are could be replaced by chimpanzees and do a better job of prognostication.  Smell better, too. ...

An early look at the early predictions
Published 9/22/2008 by Dave Studeman at The Hardball Times
An early look at the early predictions by Dave Studeman September 22, 2008 Vegas Watch assesses the various preseason predictions from some of the major outlets . His finding: don't listen to ESPN. Plus, it's past time to give PECOTA its due. Nate Silver is ...

Steve Phillips' baseball prognostication ...
Published 9/22/2008 by DAULERIO at Deadspin
Steve Phillips' baseball prognostication skills are as useful as his fake press conferences. [Vegas Watch] ...

Ugh, It’s Monday Reading
Published 9/22/2008 by Sarah Green at umpbump.com
... died trying to beat that steam drill. What does a poor, preseason-prediction-making sportswriter have to do to beat PECOTA ? Marlins players ...

If Thought Steve Phillips Struggled as a GM, How Would You Define His Preseason MLB Predictions?
Published 9/22/2008 by TheBigLead at The Big Lead
... Which makes this breakdown of his preseason predictions so comical. The former Mets GM actually projected 92 wins for the Seattle Mariners. So he’ll be off by about ...

Odds and Ends: Hawkins, Pettitte, Strasburg
Published 9/22/2008 by Tim Dierkes at MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com
... Rounding up the day's links... MLB.com's Jim Molony says the Astros would like to re-sign reliever LaTroy Hawkins.  Amazingly, Hawkins has thrown 17 scoreless innings as an Astro. This is a popular link lately...Vegas Watch examines April predictions from various analysts.  Meanwhile, Scott Long digs in deeper on PECOTA's American League predictions.  Personally I am more interested in the logic behind projections.  Did anyone predict Rays starters to post a 3.88 ERA?  Did anyone peg Dioner ...

Congrats, PECOTA
Published 9/23/2008 by Will Carroll at Baseball Prospectus: Unfiltered
Congrats to PECOTA and our favorite chili pepper, Nate Silver. Once again, PECOTA is at the top of Vegas Watch’s annual rankings of preseason predictions. As for Steve Phillips and Buster Olney, well, we’ve been wrong too.

Baseball Today: Tuesday, September 23
Published 9/23/2008 by Art Martone (amartone@projo.com) at Projo Sox Blog
... LOOKING BACK . . . The blog Vegas Watch examines some preseason predictions. PECOTA did well, not so Steve Phillips. ...

Saberists predict better than Insiders
Published 9/23/2008 by Tangotiger (tangotiger@yahoo.com) at THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball
... Thanks to Vegas Watch, we see that PECOTA and Neyer were off by 10 games, Vegas was off by 11, and Olney/Phillips were off by 13.  Lovely. ...

Yup, ignore ESPN
Published 9/23/2008 by Dave at U.S.S. Mariner
The Vegas Watch blog evaluated the preseason predictions of a lot of famous people, plus PECOTA’s projection system. And then Tom Tango updated the chart to include the default projection of every team going 81-81. Here’s the revised list (number to the right is RSME) 9.6 PECOTA 10.2 Neyer 10.5 Law 10.6 Perfectly Competitive Balanced (all teams predicted at 81-81) 10.8 Vegas 11.1 Passan 11.3 Sheehan 11.4 Brown 11.7 Kurkijan 12.1 Stark 12.1 Henson 12.4 Phillips 13.0 Olney ...

Who had the worst record predicting the 2008 ...
Published 9/23/2008 by Rick Chandler at Deadspin
... Who had the worst record predicting the 2008 baseball season? Steve Phillips was absolutely horrid, but his guy was worse ... [Vegas Watch] ...

Speed Read: Rising NHLer KO’d By Evil Golf Cart
Published 9/24/2008 by secho at SPORTSbyBROOKS
... VEGAS WATCH confirms what we’ve all suspected, nay, known for years: Steve Phillips ain’t that smart, particularly when it comes to baseball. And yet, somehow, he’s a better predictor of baseball standings than Buster Olney. ...

Preseason Predictions: Wrong, Wrong, Wrong
Published 9/24/2008 by Charlie at Bucs Dugout
... , this is a pretty hilarious read. It revisits preseason predictions about wins and losses for each team made by PECOTA and various analysts. It turns out that  ...

100 = 117
Published 9/25/2008 by The Big Picture (noreply@blogger.com) at The Big Picture
... It's almost comical to see a team worth so much do so little. Truly a pathetic showing by a team that was supposed to compete, even though the fact that Seattle overachieved last season and upgraded by adding a middle-to-upper-class pitcher made people think the M's were World Series contenders. ...

"Never make predicitions, especially about the future" -- Casey Stengel
Published 9/25/2008 by noreply@blogger.com (Craig Calcaterra) at ShysterBall
I somehow missed this the other day, but our friend Vegas Watch broke down the preseason predictions of various experts. The results are such that your average ink-stained wretch will likely have a stroke. Basically the computer won, followed by two guys -- Neyer and Law -- who are partial to computers. Here are the overall standings of prediction accuracy, using mean squared error, with the lower number being better. "O/U" means a perfectly-balanced guess of every team going 81-81: ...

Forecasting Baseball: The Computer Guys Win
Published 9/25/2008 by The Falconer (noreply@blogger.com) at Do The Thrashers Have Large Talons?
Now that the 2008 MLB season is winding down the website VegasWatch went back and looked at the pre-season predictions and who fared best. The quantitative guys cleaned up with Nate Silver (PECOTA), Rob Neyer and Law coming in ahead of the Las Vegas Over/Under numbers. Bringing up the rear are former Mets GM Phillips and ESPN journalists Tim Kurkjian and Buster Onley. The article I've linked to looks at the "hard to predict cases" such as Seattle, Chicago (AL), Tampa and which prognosticators did best. Phillips in particuar appears to have bought into the dead wrong hype ...

End of season thoughts
Published 9/27/2008 by Melvin Nieves at The Sacrifice Bunt
... 62-97 doesn’t reflect a commitment to this year at all costs, or true talent level. Tony Clark was traded July 17th. That day represents the moment the team began their focus on 2009. Since then they’ve traded Randy Wolf and Greg Maddux, and held auditions for others. Runs score / allowed expectancy puts the team at 67 wins. PECOTA, the best projection system in the business, predicted 79 wins. Judging expectations for 2009 based on simple 2008 record is just lazy. Check the media’s 2008 Rays ...

Around The Web: Yankee Stadium, Matt Kemp, And The Playoffs
Published 9/27/2008 by kensai (noreply@blogger.com) at Fire Ned Colletti Now
... Vegas Watch: They take a look at some predictions made back in April and then evaluate the best and worst. Steve Phillips from ESPN has the two worst predictions, and PECOTA from Baseball Prospectus has the two best predictions. I'm shocked. No, really. Flabbergasted, even. Aghast. Stupefied. ...

Trying To Rate My Very Own Preseason Predictions
Published 10/1/2008 by onemoredyingquail@gmail.com (One More Dying Quail) at One More Dying Quail
After Vegas Watch reviewed preseason picks by a number of "experts" and systems last week, I felt compelled to do the same with my own predictions. I don't think I ever posted them and the won-lost records aren't even (1,139-1,121, if I'm remembering correctly), but the awfulness is all real. ...

Looking Back at 2008 MLB Predictions
Published 10/1/2008 by J Money (noreply@blogger.com) at Boiled Sports
... I got the same number of playoff teams correct as Hall of Fame writer Peter Gammons! Idiot extraordinaire Steve Phillips also got three right but he gets docked points for picking the Seattle Mariners to win 92 games and the AL West. Vegas Watch says that “it’s possible nobody will ever be this wrong again.” Hee. ...

Crystal Ballin': Southeast Division
Published 10/22/2008 by Will Brinson at FanHouse
... . Why, you ask? Because no one cares about predictions later. That's because no one is ever right. Actually I take that back; people remember predictions if you say stupid things on national television and make it apparent that you suck at your job. ...

My player evaluation philosophy
Published 10/29/2008 by Derek Carty at THT Fantasy Focus
... contrary to popular belief. These things do very much exist, and saying that they don't is simply incorrect. The thing is that they either can't be quantified or aren't repeatable skills. Because of this (and because the impact, in my opinion, is relatively small compared to the actual talent of the player, anyway), they aren't included in the process. We could make guesses, but they would be just that: plain, shot-in-the-dark guesses. It's been documented that people who do that don't tend to predict things very well . At least when we (someone who is qualified, that is) ...