Blog Reactions
Tremendous Upside Potential: Quick Thursday roundup
Deadspin: You Should Probably Stop Having Birthday Parties When You're 11 [Weekly Buzzsaw Countdown]
Gaslamp Ball: Can Prospectus' PECOTA predict a president? Possibly.
MOUTHPIECE Blog // A Chicago-Addled Sports Blog: Lost Time Is Not Found Again: Oct. 15, 2008
Baseball Prospectus: Prospectus Hit and Run: Revisiting Those Rays of Hope by Jay Jaffe
Quick Thursday roundup
Tremendous Upside Potential —
... of planet Earth. * Words cannot express how awesome I think Nate Silver
is. For those who aren't aware, he's the dude that created PECOTA, the
most accurate model for predicting the future performance of a baseball
team, for Baseball Prospectus. Sox fans may remember it for nailing the 06 season. Now Silver is doing the same thing for politics, with FiveThirtyEight, which I've been reading daily the past few months. This profile of him in the New Yorker is a must read. * How ridiculously ugly are the dark Thunder ...
You Should Probably Stop Having Birthday Parties When You're 11 [Weekly Buzzsaw Countdown]
Deadspin —
... Cardinals (4-2). I am not saying anything. I'm just not. I'm not ready. Maybe the bye week will help me out here. OK, I will say this: If the Buzzsaw had lost that game Sunday, there isn't a doubt in my mind that they would have finished this season 6-10. None. Now? Well, hey, 7-9 sounds about right. Sorry. I need more time. But hey: Looks like we broke the Cowboys. So, you're welcome, America. 15. New York Jets (3-2). My magazine ran a great feature on Nate Silver, the guy from Baseball Prospectus who runs FiveThirtyEight.com. It's a ...
Can Prospectus' PECOTA predict a president? Possibly.
Gaslamp Ball —
... I'm stepping juuuuust outside of our general unwritten policy to not talk about politics to point out a New York Magazine article profiling Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus and how he carries baseball into politics. It's long, but fascinating if you're into baseball and politics, which, let's face it, I know you are. I've seen you waving your flags in the comments sections. ...
Lost Time Is Not Found Again: Oct. 15, 2008
MOUTHPIECE Blog // A Chicago-Addled Sports Blog —
... “Sometimes being more accurate means you’re getting things right 52 percent of the time instead of 50,” says Silver. “PECOTA is the most accurate projection system in baseball, but it’s the most accurate by half a percent.” That half-percent, though, makes all the difference. Silver’s work, in both baseball and politics, is about finding that slim advantage. “I hate the first 90 percent [of a solution],” he says. “What I want is that last 10 percent.” – ...
Prospectus Hit and Run: Revisiting Those Rays of Hope by Jay Jaffe
Baseball Prospectus —
... 's roll continues. Before delving into the numbers, it's worth a clarification, however. Those Defensive Efficiency marks I used in the spring did not include Reached On Error totals in their calculations, a product of both a quirk in our sortable stats (since changed, along with adding the 1954-1958 seasons due to increased greatness on the part of Retrosheet) and the consequence of reverse-engineering team Defensive Efficiency marks from individual pitcher BABIPs. The figures here do include Reached on Error totals via the proper formula: 1 - (( ...
Triple Threat
The Futility Infielder —
... their sudden rise into contention appears to be overstated, and we'd be well served to temper our expectations.Holiday bird-feasting is still about a month away, but it's time to eat some crow here, since the Rays not only surpassed the 88 wins but also the 46-point jump. As with the bullpen's WXRL total and Fair Run Average, they set a record for the largest year-to-year improvement in our database, and they led the majors in that category as well. Nate Silver's roll continues.Rather than embark on another lengthy history lesson ...
Nate Silver Is the MVP of 2008
Dan Shanoff —
Nate Silver has pulled off an unprecedented "double" this year: In his role as guru of the PECOTA performance projection system at Baseball Prospectus, he correctly predicted the Rays' rise this season. Arguably, he sparked the bandwagon. In his role as founder and lead voice of politics blog FiveThirtyEight.com, he has become the breakout star of political polling punditry - it's in my heavy rotation. Here is a must-read New York magazine story that puts it all together about Silver. -- D.S.
Presidential Fantasy League: An interview with Nate Silver
ESPNtheMag.com - MagDaily —
... , and New York Magazine. We caught up with him by phone while he was waiting in a TV studio to do a spot on the Charlie Rose show. Like we said, guy's in demand.
