Winning Streak Applesauce - Mets Sign Urbina, Royals Ban Rany, Joey Chestnut vs. Kobayashi
Amazin' Avenue —
... the Boxscore adds some objectivity to the interleague attendance discussion.
Jim Leyritz: douchelord.
R.J. Anderson at DraysBay bids adieu to Winston Abreu.
DodgerSims celebrates Christmas in July, with the return of Manny Ramirez.
Mike Silva continues the "Should Joba be in the bullpen?" discussion for some reason, which is only a discussion for the Beningos and Francescas of the world.
Colin Wyers at THT looks at the reliability of UZR. A couple takeaways: ...
This Week's Links (6/29-7/3)
Vegas Watch —
Posnanski questions Hillman's use of Meche. Wyers on the reliability of UZR. Brooklyn native Lance Stephenson signs with Cincy. Nate Silver is playing in the WSOP. Pos on The Great Mariano. The OC Register interviews Sean "CHONE" Smith. RAB looks at the accuracy of various MLB mock drafts. ...
Past Performance Does Not Guarantee Future Gains
Beyond the Box Score —
... And here's a graph:
Eyeballing that chart, you are likely willing to discount his outlier season of 2009, despite the fact that it is the most recent. It was fueled largely by a career high 16.3 fielding runs above average (by UZR), and perhaps you don't trust UZR's year to year fluctuations (motivated by good reasons).
So let's say you throw out his outlier 2006 and 2009 seasons, and expect him to be worth between $9 million and $12 million. We'll split the difference and say $10.5 million. Again, ...
Was Joe Mauer Streakier than Jimmy Rollins?
Beyond the Box Score —
... But it's very important to remember that even with these seemingly stable numbers, we can't be certain they represent true talent. As Colin Wyers has pointed out, even when a player has 300 PA, we still need to regress his wOBA almost 50% to the mean. However, that does not mean that, with 600 PA, we do not need to regress at all to the mean. ...
