posted by Geoff Young
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The Last Road Trip - Process vs. Results
Redleg Nation —
... This blog post, by Padres Assistant GM Paul DePodesta, really tracks my thinking on the process: Yeah, W-L are what ultimately matter, but how they play is, over the long run, a better barometer than the results over a single week. ...
DePodesta On Basic Strategy
Football Outsiders —
DePodesta On Basic Strategy Well, not quite. Paul DePodesta, formerly the assistant GM of the Oakland A’s and general manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers, and now special assistant to the general manager in San Diego, wrote a blog post elucidating the difference between judging performance based upon process and outcomes. It’s a simple essay, but it’s incredibly effective and important and transferable across all sports and walks of life, which is why DePodesta uses the analogy of a man hitting in blackjack on 17. You’ll never guess which team was analyzed under a similar lens ...
DePo breaks it down
River Avenue Blues —
... Former Dodgers’ GM Paul DePodesta goes in-depth about “The Process” in his latest blog entry. Can’t recommend it enough, make sure you check it out. Plenty of Yankees’ fans need a refresher course. ...
Killing Time--Quickly
The Ragnarok —
... Finally, Paul DePodesta, the assistant GM of the San Diego Padres (and whom you may remember from the book Moneyball) has his own blog and he has a very good post on the MLB draft that is applicable to almost all walks of life, including the NFL (which is why Football Outsiders ...
Friday links
Friar Forecast —
... ability to take a walk. He slugged 16 HR and ranked second in the country with 62 BB in only 56 games. Dykstra struggled on Friday nights (although in a much smaller sample size than normal), going 6-for-33 with 2 HR. He was named as an All-Star in the Cape Cod League last summer, hitting .308/.444/.481 while ranking third in OBP. Dykstra was a teammate at Wake Forest with second baseman Matt Antonelli, who was SD’s first-round pick (17th overall) in 2006.
Paul DePodesta on the draft:
At the Padres, we want to win every game we play ...
Audible: Is This Deserved Success?
thejetsblog.com —
... Paul DePodesta, who Moneyball readers will remember as one of Billy Beane’s right hand men has written a very interesting post on his personal blog about the how gambling and the MLB Draft have similarities and looks at the importance that teams should place on the process of scouting and building. It’s well worth reading and something that applies to the NFL, and specifically the Jets. ...
Unverified Voracity Consumes Human Flesh
mgoblog —
... Etc.: Paul DePodesta has a blogspot blog and it's pretty smart; this post is about dissasociating outcome from process and it heavily reflects my worldview. There is a ...
DePo @ PetCo c/o BP
FakeTeams —
Pretend for a moment you don' t know this is a sports website. Are you pretending? No? Come on, just play along.
Last night I listened to an upper management type from a local business speak. Here are the areas he focused on:
-Process vs. Outcome
-Culture vs. Expectations
-Correlation vs. Causation
-Psychological Biases
-Humility in the face of uncertainty.
Given this list of topics would you think I was referring to baseball? If you were playing along I'm going to say no. ...
Are You a Good Bengals Fan?
WhoDeyRevolution —
... None of this is groundbreaking and for a more well written and thorough description see here. But take a look at the chart above. Since the Bengals have a failed Process, we as fans are forever reduced to hoping for that bottom left corner, Dumb Luck (like the 2005 season). However, in the long run, a season or two of Dumb Luck can be far more dangerous to us as Bengals fans. Why? ...
Processes > Results
DRaysBay —
... Let me state that I am not cheapening the value of a win. Instead, I'm placing more value on processes than results. Refer to this chart, courtesy of the great Paul DePodesta: ...
Processes > Results
Beyond the Box Score —
... Let me state that I am not cheapening the value of a win. Instead, I'm placing more value on processes than results. Refer to this chart, courtesy of the great Paul DePodesta: ...
Deserved Success via Good Process
Rufus on Fire —
... to imagine Whisenhunt engaging in such purposeless gimmickry.
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Here's how the Bobcats could apply the lessons the Cardinals, and to a lesser extent the Steelers, offer: Stop screwing around. Determine a course of action based on fact and sound reasoning, and stick with it. There is no substitute for Good Process. Even when things go badly, trust that the Good Process will yield positive results more often and more consistently than blind wandering.
Here's a chart yoinked from Paul DePodesta, assistant general manager of the San Diego Padres. ...
Interpreting Oliver Perez's 2009
Amazin' Avenue —
... with Oliver Perez. This opinion is hardly universal though, due in large part to reliance on statistics like Wins and ERA, which give an incomplete and often misleading view of a pitcher's performance. Omar Minaya and staff, having just lost a bidding war against themselves for Perez, obviously use some if not all these statistics in evaluating players. This failed method can be summarized in a chart courtesy of Paul DePo: ...
Daily Box Score 6/24: Cleveland is Frustrated with The Process
Beyond the Box Score —
... Sure, blame the scouts. Color me starry-eyed, but I still believe what kind Uncle DePodesta told me a while back: ...
Selected criticisms of Football Outsiders Almanac 2009
Bleed Scarlet —
... so often, a statistical anomaly defies reasonable expectations. The Giants weren’t playing over their head; the playoffs and the following season evidenced that they were a legitimately talented team, which finally had started living up to their potential. It may have been a mistake for FO (and to be fair, almost everyone else to boot) to not qualify their predictions more strongly. However, despite, well, being wrong in that particular instance, FO was behaving correctly. They followed a reliable process that has a better chance to produce meaningful future predictions, ...
Why do we bother trying to judge trades as they happen?
Basement Dwellers —
... Paul DePodesta wrote a great article about this that I've been meaning to link to for a long time. Here's an excerpt: As tough as a good process/bad outcome combination is, nothing compares to the bottom left: bad process/good outcome. This is the wolf in sheep's clothing that allows for one-time success but almost always cripples any chance of sustained success - the player hitting on 17 and getting a four. Here's the rub: it's incredibly difficult to look in the mirror after a victory, any victory, and admit that you were lucky. If you fail to make that ...
Bad Process Can Still Lead to Reasonable-Looking Results
Rufus on Fire —
... The key corollary is that good outcomes do not necessarily come from good process. They can come out of the blue, the result of dumb luck. Decisions are not justified because they work out well. ...
Requiem for the Nets
Bleed Scarlet —
... “Aha”, you may say. The Devils haven’t won a championship in six years. I have two easy responses to that line. The very thought that expectations are up to a point where not winning the cup is a disappointment is enviable. As Paul DePodesta has said, the most dependable way to build a winner is through a reliable process. Sporting seasons aren’t long enough to register a meaningful enough sample size, so flukey events can and do happen. Unfortunately, the natural inclination is to panic and do something knee-jerk in response. ...
In Defense of Joe Girardi
The Yankee Universe —
... -Nothing in Baseball is ever 100%. Even making the right move doesn’t always work. For those who need a refresher course, I suggest this Paul DePodesta blog piece. ...
On Belichick's decision (or, Why results-based analysis is stupid and how it applies to WSU)
CougCenter —
... the decision (which is based on a process) and the result (which is usually based on an incalculable number of variables completely out of the control of the decision maker) are two different things entirely -- much different than most people ever want to recognize. After all, if the decision doesn't generate the desired result, someone has to be to blame, right?
I'm reminded of this matrix from "Winning Decisions" by Russo and Schoemaker, introduced to me by Paul DePodesta: ...
