Lies, Damned Lies: Blowing It by Nate Silver
30| BBTF's Baseball Primer Newsblog found this 9/27/2007 on www.baseballprospectus.com [flag] |
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BPro: Silver: Blowing It
Published 9/27/2007 at BBTF's Baseball Primer Newsblog
... The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Thursday, September 27, 2007 BPro: Silver: Blowing It Silver looks at the bad, badder and baddest collapses of all time and finishes up with the 2007 release of SuperBad . ...
A bunch of stuff
Published 9/28/2007 by Adam J. Morris <info@lonestarball.com> at Lone Star Ball: Front Page Posts
... along with little writeups on each. Nate Silver has an article up, going through the biggest collapses in baseball history, in terms of greatest percentage likelihood of making the playoffs without actually making it. I don't know if I explained that well. But it is a neat piece, and in the BP free section, so... Chris Young, since coming off the disabled list in early August: 0-5, 48 1/3 IP, 6.33 ERA. The Pads have won only 2 of the 9 starts he's made since coming off the d.l. Before going on the d.l., he had a 1.08 ERA in his previous 15 starts. You know what is weird about Chris Young's 2007 season? Young has 11 fewer innings than last year, has allowed 1 fewer walk, and struck out 4 fewer batters. And he has about the same FB% as last year. But Young has allowed only 9 homers this year, after allowing 28 homers last year. Guess what individual offensive stat a plurality of major league players said ...
September 27th @ The Devil Rays
Published 9/28/2007 by Steve Lombardi at WasWatching.com
A D-backs Collapse Won’t Be Worst Of All Time
Published 9/28/2007 by Greg Esposito at AZ Sports Hub - Arizona's Destination for Sports - Blogs - Podcasts - Forums
... Baseball Prospectus put together a study of the worst collapses in baseball history and the information is very interesting and well researched. The highlight of the piece is when they statistically break down the possible collapses of this season. Here is what they concluded: ...
Baseball Today: Friday, September 28
Published 9/28/2007 by Art Martone (amartone@projo.com) at Projo Sox Blog
... THE ALL-TIME GREATS: Baseball Prospectus lists the 13 biggest late-season collapses in baseball history, based on ''teams that had the highest percentage chance to reach the playoffs at some point during the regular season [and] then failed to do so.'' Two Red Sox teams -- from 2002 (No. 11) and 1978 (No. 7) -- make the list. The team most famous for folding at the end, the 1964 Phillies, are only at No. 10; BP notes ''it was not quite as bad as it might seem at first glance because of the disparity in the schedules. From September 18th onward, the Phillies played teams with an average winning percentage of .548, as opposed to .470 for the Cardinals, which was enough to wipe the equivalent of a game or two off of their lead.'' Coming in at No. 1: The 1995 Angels. ...
Presenting Your National League East: Two NL East Ballparks, Exactly Opposite
Published 9/28/2007 by Leitch at Deadspin
... Baseball Prospectus points out that if the Mets do lose this lead, it will be the second worst collapse in baseball history, behind the 1995 Angels. ...
This Week's Links (9/24-9/28)
Published 9/28/2007 by Vegas Watch at Vegas Watch
... Nate Silver has a (free) article on BP looking at the worst collapses in history. The odds of the Angels blowing it in '95 were 1 in 8,332; if the Mets miss the playoffs, it would be the second biggest collapse ever. ...
The Week In Blogs IV
Published 9/28/2007 by MWJ at Midgets With Jetpacks
... Baseball Prospectus researches the biggest collapses in baseball history. ...
Surf's Up
Published 9/29/2007 by redsock at The Joy of Sox
... Nate Silver at BP gives us the thirteen worst collapses in baseball history. Gene Mauch's 1964 Phillies are at #10. (The 1978 Red Sox are #7, the 2002 Red Sox are #11, and the 2000 and 2001 teams almost made the list. Jesus.) ...
100% Certainty
Published 9/30/2007 by Dave Studeman at THT Live
... 100% Certainty by Dave Studeman September 30, 2007 The National League East moved from probability to certainty, as the Phillies beat the Nationals, 6-1, and the Mets lost to the Marlins, 8-1. This was a thrilling comeback for the Phils, and the second-biggest collapse in baseball history by the Mets. Congrats to Philadelphia. So our attention turns to the National League West and the wildcard slot. The Padres are losing to the Brewers, 9-4, in the top of the seventh (win probability of 98%), but the Rockies and Diamondbacks are tied at 0-0 in the bottom of the sixth in Colorado. Ubaldo Jimenez is pitching a great game for the Rockies, allowing only one hit and striking out ten in six innings. Update : the Rockies just took a 1-0 lead in the bottom of the sixth. If the Rockies maintain their lead and the Padres lose, they'll play an extra game tomorrow. Dave is the manager of the ...
Steve Phillips: Super Genius
Published 10/1/2007 by Vegas Watch at Vegas Watch
... I'll ignore the typos (Brina Laurence?), because I'm a nice guy. From that point on, the Mets' team ERA was 5.13, as they suffered through the second worst collapse in baseball history, missing out on the postseason after having a seven game lead with 17 games to go (without even needing a Monday playoff, which is truly incredible). ...
Letting it Sink In
Published 10/1/2007 by Doc at Balls, Sticks, & Stuff | Phillies, Eagles, golf and other matters of great importance...
... Perhaps snowballs really would be able to survive in hell. After all, the chances you would give one of those icy spheres was about the same most of us gave the Phillies of making the playoffs not too long ago. As a matter of fact, as of September 12th, Baseball Prospectus ...
The Week in Geek: And So It Ends
Published 10/1/2007 by Eric Simon at Mets Geek
... Was it the worst regular season collapse in baseball history? Possibly not, but it was close, and it was probably the worst ever by a National League team. The Mets had a 99.80% likelihood of making the playoffs back on September 12, considering their seven game lead on Philly, the number of games remaining and who those games were against. That the Mets won just five of their final seventeen games was atrocious, but winning so infrequently when thirteen of those games were against the Marlins and Nationals makes their undoing historically and almost unthinkably regrettable. ...
The Sports Conspectus: September 30th 2007
Published 10/1/2007 by MWJ at Midgets With Jetpacks
... The Phillies, by some miracle, are in the playoffs. You can say that the Mets choked, in epic fashion, but you can just as easily say that the Phillies were clutch, ...
The End Of The Line: Rangers Swept In Seattle
Published 10/1/2007 by Joey Matschulat at Baseball Time in Arlington
... While the Mets’ 2007 collapse may not go down as the worst in baseball history, it certainly ranks right up there: according to Baseball Prospectus’s Nate Silver, the Mets had a 99.8% chance of reaching the post-season on September 12th. Just to put that in context, that ranks their meltdown as second all-time, behind only the 1995 Anaheim Angels (99.988% on August 20th) ...
Diamondbacks 3, Rockies 4 - The end...and the beginning.
Published 10/1/2007 by Jim McLennan <info@azsnakepit.com> at AZ Snakepit: Front Page Posts
... Meanwhile, over on the East coast, Mets fans are flinging themselves from the walkway to the #7 train as their team completed the worst late implosion in baseball history. They blew a seven-game lead in the last eighteen days of the season, from the best record in the National League, to falling, not only out of the division lead, but also out of the wild-card. Well done! You must get up very early. Devin pointed me to a Baseball Prospectus article on all-time biggest collapses, based on playoff odds, and mlb.com also ...
Phillies Surmount 500-to-1 Odds Against
Published 10/1/2007 by billbaer at crashburnalley.com
Enjoy the shadenfreude a-holes
Published 10/1/2007 by Ken Dynamo at GO METS DIE BRAVES
... If we're going to dish it we may as well get used to taking it. So yeah, we fucking suck. 2nd biggest collapse ever. ...
10/1: Open One-Game Playoff Thread
Published 10/1/2007 by Jeff <jbingham@gmail.com> at Lookout Landing: Front Page Posts
... On the topic of one-game playoffs, you'll never guess which team was the biggest choker of all time. ...
Looking to 2008: Getting your league together
Published 10/1/2007 by Derek Carty at THT Fantasy Focus
... adding a flexible keeper system should keep everyone interested throughout the season. Concluding thoughts Hopefully this gets you thinking a little bit about your league next year. Even if there aren't fundamental problems with your league, it still might be a good idea to talk with the other owners and see if there are any smaller changes to be made. I'll be back tomorrow with a player profile or two. If you guys have any particular players you want me to look at, feel free to shoot me an email. I've already gotten a few of these, and I'll do my best to go over everyone you want me to, at the very least sending you an email back with an abridged analysis. I'm looking forward to a fruitful off-season, ultimately leading up to an excellent draft or auction for you guys (and myself, too)! P.S. If you're a Mets fan, like myself, feel free to wait a few days before getting in contact with the rest of your league. Even if you won, I doubt that would stop them from bringing up ...
Clearing the Bases -- Down from the Mountain Edition
Published 10/2/2007 by Jay at The Futility Infielder
... covering a second-half Hit List and the hottest and coldest hitters and pitchers in September, and watched one of the most thrilling final weekends in baseball history. Thanks in part to my Extra Innings package, I watched more than 24 hours of baseball from Thursday through last night, and while relatively little came up Milhouse from my point of view, the ride has been pretty fun. The biggest news around these parts, of course, is the Mets' collapse, one in which Nate Silver and Clay Davenport estimated to be the second-worst in baseball history based on the Prospectus ...
2004 Yankees Vs. 2007 Mets
Published 10/2/2007 by Steve Lombardi at WasWatching.com
Lies, Damned Lies: The Greatest Pennant Race Comebacks by Nate Silver
Published 10/4/2007 at Baseball Prospectus
Playoff Prospectus: Yanks-Indians
Published 10/4/2007 by Jay at The Futility Infielder
... s, I'm looking at you). Benches are far more important in the NL, where pinch-hitting for pitchers is a factor, but the Creeping La Russaism move to 12-man pitching staffs has shortened too many benches and left managers without a proper counter to that third lefty. As for picking against the Phillies, I like their bench, but as great as their run has been, their staff and bullpen still make me very nervous. I've been heartbroken by Tom Gordon one too many times to have much faith in him. Jim Clancy (Exhibition Stadium): Why is the Mets' collapse from this year so much "worse" than clunkers before it--like the awful and touched-by-Satan collapse of the Blue Jays in '87 (despite their having at least one stellar right hander)? I mean, to hear people talk now, no one else ever collapsed so brutally as the Mets did this year. Even this year's Padres might qualify as similar. JJ: From the Postseason Odds perspective that Clay Davenport invented and Nate Silver applied in his fine ...
Willie survive?
Published 10/8/2007 by Chris Jaffe at THT Live
... second and the Phillies were in the postseason. As if that wasn't bad enough, rumors circled that Randolph had lost the clubhouse and that the team was not happy with the third-year skipper. That's not a good combination for any manager who would like to stick around. Losing the clubhouse is bad enough, but at least that's fairly common in baseball. More damning is the historically bad job his team did holding onto first place in the pennant race. You'd certainly think that such epic suckititude down the stretch would make Randolph a sitting duck. No, apparently not. How much precedent is there for this? Without looking, I'd assume that managers whose teams blow huge leads end up unemployed posthaste. To see how much precedent there is for the Mets' decision and what the future holds for Randolph, I'll look at what happened to previous managers who presided over epic collapses. Fortunately for me, this is actually pretty easy to check on. Just before the season ended, ...
Better to Have Loved and Lost?
Published 10/8/2007 by Greg at Faith and Fear in Flushing
My 2007 MVPs
Published 10/11/2007 by David Gassko at THT Live
... (+73 Runs Above Average) If nothing goes wrong, Wright is going to win multiple MVPs in his career. His triple crown numbers are exactly what voters love: .325 average, 30 home runs, and 107 RBIs this season, and a career average of .311, 29, and 109. He steals a lot of bases: 34 in 2007, and an average of 23 a year over his career. And Wright is solidly rounded player, hitting at least 40 doubles in each of his three full major league seasons, walking at an above-average clip, and not even striking out all that much. Plus, he plays in New York. And despite all that, it’s unlikely that Wright will win the MVP this year. The historic Mets collapse combined with ...
Carlos Delgado: What Can We Expect?
Published 1/21/2008 by Jeff Mathews at Mets Geek
... and ended it with a broken hand in the final game of one of the worst choke-jobs in sports history. You could say he had a rough year. What’s important now, though, is what Carlos is going to do in 2008. Will we again see the first baseman that hit a very pedestrian .242/.305/.435 in the first half of ...
Chronicling the Possible Collapse: The Nature of the Cubs' Fan Base
Published 29 days ago by dan-bob (noreply@blogger.com) at Fire Jay Mariotti
... . It's true - lots of teams have blown leads. The 1951 Dodgers, 1993 Giants and 2007 Mets are legendary for blowing leads. Here's an interesting article that looks at the statistical numbers - suggesting, actually, that the 1995 Angels were the biggest "chokers". Over the course of a hundred years of baseball, for every comeback team, there's a comeback victim. ...
Mets 3 1/2 Up With 17 To Play. I See No Way This Ends Badly [MLB]
Published 29 days ago by Rick Chandler at Deadspin
... Last year at this time, the Mets were 7 games up with 17 to play, giving them a 99.80 percent chance of winning the division, according to Baseball Prospectus (you would have gotten 500-to-1 odds if you bet against them). So if I'm reading it correctly, they turned in the second-worse collapse in baseball history. ...
(Collapse being defined as not making the playoffs)