Lies, Damned Lies: Offseason Plans, NL West by Nate Silver

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Dodger Thoughts: Less Is More
Published 10/31/2007 at Dodger Thoughts
Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus advances the argument that the Dodgers should hang onto the status quo rather than make a strong push to improve the roster through trade or free agency - taking it a step further by advising the team to say no to Alex Rodriguez. Play. The. Kids. The Dodgers simply need to deploy their existing assets correctly, rather than seek help from elsewhere. To get a bit more specific about it, next year's lineup should look as follows: SS Furcal C Martin 1B Loney 2B Kent LF Kemp RF Ethier 3B LaRoche CF Pierre That group would be significantly ...

Nate Silver Plays GM For The Angels And Dodgers
Published 10/31/2007 by Rob at 6-4-2 — an Angels/Dodgers double play blog
... franchise valuation and become Red Sox West with a World Series title, while still having some bailout options as a lot of money is coming off the books in 2008 or 2009. Alex Rodriguez and Barry Bonds should be target numbers 1 and #1A. What They Will Do: Strong Buy. It’s perhaps the best individual fit for both Rodriguez and Bonds. I’d give 50-50 odds that the Angels snag at least one of them, with a decent chance that they go after both. For the NL West and the Dodgers: Los Angeles Dodgers 2007 Record: ...

The Wins Budget, the Dodgers, and A-Rod
Published 10/31/2007 by Nate Silver at Baseball Prospectus: Unfiltered
Oftentimes, there is perceived to be a disconnect between making money and winning ballgames. This is perhaps inevitable, because it’s easy to see how expenditures on talented players can negatively impact a team’s bottom line, but more difficult to see how the extra wins those players generate can positively impact a team’s top line. But they do, sometimes profoundly, like when those wins lead a team into the playoffs or toward a championship. I believe that professional baseball clubs should be run with the objective of maximizing long-run profits, but I also believe that there is strong alignment ...

Getting PADE and Other Notes
Published 11/1/2007 by Jay at The Futility Infielder
Getting PADE and Other Notes Just clearing my clipboard: • This week's installment of Prospectus Hit and Run just went up. In it, I note that the 2007 Red Sox are in very fine company in terms of post division-play teams that went on to win the World Series after conclusively proving themselves as the best teams of the majors in terms of run differential, Pythagorean record, and/or Hit List ranking -- and went went on to win the World Series. It's a short list, just nine or 10 teams long (depending on which of those criteria you use) and it includes some true powerhouses: 1970 Orioles, 1975 Reds, 1978 Yankees, 1981 Dodgers, 1984 Tigers, 1986 ...

No Divine Comedy
Published 11/1/2007 by E.L.M. at El Lefty Malo
The first obituary for the 2008 San Francisco Giants has arrived, courtesy of Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus. Steel yourself for plenty more this winter even if Brian Sabean makes savvy moves, because the Giants have used up their political capital among the punditocracy. The statheads think the brass isn't smart enough, the morally righteous can't wait to see them fail for their long affiliation and complicity with The Great Satan, and just about everyone is generally suffering from Giant fatigue. It's simply not an interesting organization to opine about these days.Before we begin our long dark plunge through the nine circles this ...

Rockies Expect A Quiet Offseason
Published 11/5/2007 by Tim Dierkes at MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com
... Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus recently wrote in reference to the Rockies: Teams that overachieve expectations tend to keep everything in place, and in fact that’s exactly what Charlie Monfort is saying. This is likely to be one of the bigger misplays of the offseason. Indeed, no one is expecting any kind of shake-up or blockbuster.  That said, Tracy Ringolsby indicates that teams will inquire on Brian Fuentes and Garrett Atkins over the next few months.  The free agent market for closers ...

Play. The. Kids.
Published 11/8/2007 by Ted at The Diamond Fan
... Nate Silver, the Baseball Prospectus analyst, recently did an article on the offseason plans of NL West teams (Subscription required to view the full article.) His suggestion for the Dodgers starts off with the three words I use for the title of this post: ...

Dodgers Sign Andruw Jones To 2-Year, $36.2M Deal
Published 12/6/2007 by Rob at 6-4-2 — an Angels/Dodgers double play blog
... the same mistake the Angels did, shoring up one bad centerfield acquisition with (arguably) another. Now, it's possible that Jones is merely coming off a lone bad season, and that he will bounce back; but for Colletti's expensive potential bust, we may add the caveat that at least the (perhaps rotten and stinking) fish he landed has a two-year expiration date on it, a far better deal than the five years Gary Matthews, Jr. and Torii Hunter have. Oddly enough, Nate Silver called Jones "closer to Hunter in reality than in perception" at the end of the season, which makes sense: ...

Dodger Thoughts: More Perspective on the Jones Signing
Published 12/6/2007 at Baseball Toaster
... , Rob McMillin excerpts other reactions and adds his own two cents to the sobering talk: Oddly enough, Nate Silver called Jones "closer to Hunter in reality than in perception" at the end of the season, which makes sense: low-ish OBP, higher single-season home run totals offset by a precipitous plunge from previous levels. As to whether the deal stinks: ...