Lies, Damned Lies: PECOTA Projected Standings, AL and NL Central by Nate Silver

Links (7)

PECOTA Projects the Tigers Third in the AL Central
Published 3/28/2007 by Brian at TigerBlog
... | Nate Silver used his projection system, PECOTA, to see how the AL Central (and NL Central) will turn out in the 2007.  Not good news for Tiger fans because they have the Tigers in third place with 85 wins .   It projects the Indians and Twins to come in with 90 wins with the White Sox at a disappointing 72 wins.  I d be interested to see what they projected last year to see how close they came.  He does hedge himself because PECOTA isn t looking for much from Gary Sheffield so if he puts in a full, 2005 like season, that ll be worth a few more wins.   He concludes with some tweaks that the Tigers will actually win 88 games, which is pretty close to what I m predicting. Post a comment Name:(required) Email (will not be published):(required) Website:

Tiger news round-up
Published 3/28/2007 by billfer at The Detroit Tiger Weblog
... The straight run of Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA projections for the AL Central put the Tigers in 3rd place with 85 wins. Nate Silver makes some tweaks and post-adjustment he’s looking at the Tigers winning 88 games. With his other adjustments that puts them in a tie for 2nd place, one game out. So essentially it’s a 3 team toss-up in Silver’s eyes. Kind of hard to argue with that, unless you’re a White Sox fan who doesn’t like the 77 win projection.

Thursday Roundup
Published 3/29/2007 by bryanzane <info@buccosdugout.com> at Bucs Dugout: Front Page Posts
... Can't remember if I posted this or not, but Baseball Prospectus has their preview up of the NL Central. Their projection system (PECOTA) has the Bucs finishing 5th, ahead of the Reds but posting a decent record of 76-86. They don't think Freddy Sanchez will come close to challenging for a batting title again and they note that if the pitching blossoms they might be better than projected. They aren't counting on that though and put the human prediction at 74-88. They put the Cubs winning the division, followed by the Brew Crew, Cards, and Astros. I happen to think that is insanity.

Meet the New Number Five Starter
Published 4/3/2007 by Mike Pindelski <info@beyondtheboxscore.com> at Beyond the Box Score: Front Page Posts
... , the 22-year old Danks pitched better than any of his counterparts and won the job.  Though his 5.91 spring ERA is hardly impressive, it was better than that of Gavin Floyd (9.00 ERA), Charlie Haegar (8.10 ERA) or Adam Russell (8.53 ERA), all whom were being considered for a spot in the major league rotation.  I feel the same way about Danks now as I did back in December when he was first acquired by the Sox:  I believe he needs more time in AAA.  Danks is a home run-prone pitcher with poor control and that's not suited for major league competition or the hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Field.  Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus likes the White Sox going with Danks, I on the other hand prefer the knuckle-balling Haegar. PECOTA's projected ERA for Danks is 5.53 in 110 innings of work and while I agree with Silver that this figure is pessimistic, I don't think Danks is ready to produce much

Where we stand now, and why this series is crucial.
Published 4/23/2007 by shawndgoldman at Another Cubs Blog
... , which is like the previous report but also takes into account PECOTA projections by regressing records to this year s PECOTA projeted standings . In the Cubs case, that means regressing their expected win record to .525 instead of to .500. This boosts the Cubs expected win total to 89.1, and their chances of making the postseason to 45.7% Finally, we can look at

Evaluating April MLB Predictions
Published 9/25/2007 by Vegas Watch at Vegas Watch

AL Central Preview
Published 2/10/2008 by houstoncardinal <info@vivaelbirdos.com> at Viva El Birdos: Front Page Posts
... There's little doubt that this is one of the best, if not the best, divisions in baseball. Cleveland and Detroit are clearly at the top of the heap and while the Twins are a notch or two beneath them, they have an exciting stockpile of young talent. (Is it possible the Twins will replace their ace w/ a pitcher who'll be even better over the next 7 years?) Probably the most amusing result from this division last year was the White Sox season. There was a huge uproar when PECOTA predicted 72 wins from the Pale Hose , who were just 1 season away from winning it all. And ...