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Mapping the NBA

tziller posted 8/7/2007 from ballhype.com

If you're like me, analysis is useless without pictures. And while this visual exercise won't be nearly as... stimulating as, say, Sports By Brooks, it's sure to open your mind like an evening with The Birdman.

With some inspiration from the popular 'Aerials' feature from The Mid-Majority - a charming slice of NCAA analytical artistry - we present the first in a series devoted to Mapping the NBA. (Cue the gong.)

The Map of Goodness & Badness 

This map is fairly straight-forward: green is good, red is bad, white is indeterminate. The further to the right, the better a team's offense. (Thus, lefthood is bad offense.) The closer to the top, the better the defense; the closer to the bottom, the worse the defense. A team at or near the crux of the axes (such as New Jersey) is completely average.

This map won't blow your mind if you paid any attention this season. San Antonio, Dallas and Phoenix? Yeah, those guys were good. Atlanta, Boston? Bad. In that sense, the map is self-explanatory.

We use offensive and defensive efficiency here, which is points per 100 possessions. This accounts for pace differences among the teams. Ken Pomeroy and Kevin Pelton explain it more elegantly than I could, so see those links. Quick example, though: Golden State scored 106.5 points per game last season, suggesting it was one of the best offenses in the league. Not so: Golden State used a lot more possessions to get those points, and offensive efficiency -- a pace-independent measure -- reveals the Warriors offense was just a bit better than average. Antipodally, Dallas didn't boast a particularly high points per game average, but their offensive efficiency was marvelous -- the second-best in the league.

Does balance matter? Yes, to a degree. Champions do typically come from that green quadrant, but it is not a hard rule. Two champions this decade have fallen elsewhere: Detroit 2004 would've sat in Chicago's proximity if placed on this map, and Los Angeles 2001 would have been about a square to the right of Utah. Detroit's offense and L.A.'s defense were below average. But note Detroit's defense and L.A.'s offense were very, very good... which should give hope to unbalanced modern teams like Phoenix and Chicago.

Overwhelmingly, this map says to me lots of team have a real chance next season. Houston's Rick Adelman hiring should shift its place rightward, while the loss of little personnel shouldn't damage its extraordinary defense too much. Utah and Toronto were very good and are still rising; Denver and Golden State could be considered 'right there'; Cleveland and Chicago have the offensive weapons to slip into the green.

But you don't need a graph to show you the Hawks suck. You might, however, need one to show you Mike Woodson is the scourge of the Earth.

The Map of Awesome Speed & Apocalyptic Boredom

This map pits offensive efficiency against pace. Like before, good offenses to the right and bad ones to the left. Faster-paced offenses, or teams who use more possessions per game than average, go up high and slowpokes slide low. Thus, Golden State's on meth and Detroit's got gum stuck to its shoe.

Pace isn't a value statement... for analysts. For fans? Heck yes it is. While allegiance and superstars may dictate much of our viewing pattern, I don't think it's crazy to say most of us enjoy streaking offensive displays in lieu of plodding, pedant affairs. (If you're a unique snowflake, ignore my assumptions.) So in this map, we've put value to pace: fast = fun; slow = boring. Teams in the top-right quadrant play fun basketball, teams in the lower-left are dullards who should be subjected to military tribunals.

In light of this, I recommend medals be given to Tony Barone and Eric Musselman. Both sacrificed careers to put a speedy system in play. Bad offense is bad enough without molasses added to the recipe. Also, we should probably thank Don Nelson for continuing to be a presence in our lives despite his advanced age. And Eddie Jordan is certainly underrated as showmanship goes. But Mike Woodson? Nate McMillan? Brian Hill? Maurice Cheeks? Pat Riley? Byron Scott? Damn you all, damn you all straight to hell. At least make your crappy offenses somewhat fun to watch.

Histrionics aside, Golden State and Denver really jump out at me on this map. Phoenix is fast, right? Look how much faster Golden State and Denver were. I love Don Nelson, I really do.

Now we delve further into value statements based solely on personal taste.

The Map of Thugs & Hummingbirds

Here, we introduce foul rate to the picture. Our x-axis now represents pace and our y-axis represents rate at which fouls are given, as in Utah fouls a lot and San Antonio does not...

Wait, San Antonio doesn't foul? Nope -- lowest foul-rate in the league. This, coupled with its non-evil placement in the above cartography, redeems Gregg Popovich's system. They may work slow, the Spurs, but their offense is efficient and they don't foul a lot. In other words, it could be worse. A lot worse.

We could be subjected to the unwatchable Orlando Magic. Terrible offense, slow offense, foul a lot on defense. Three ingredients for ADHD suicides. Blame ironhands Dwight Howard and noodly-armed Darko Milicic, or keep blaming Brian Hill (see if I care). Something's got be done, and I imagine Rashard Lewis is that something: He doesn't care enough about defense to bother fouling, and he's never been one to let the shot clock wind down before making his move. Sleep well tonight Florida, fun is on its way. But we have got to be worried about Portland. You take a slow, plodding, hamhanded team... and add Greg Oden? There's no reason for this team to change. If they win a title, foresaken 'right way' ball will be the victor. There is little, maybe no incentive to change. Lord help us. It's me, Margaret Martell.

Denver Golden State, of course, sticks out: wings of a butterfly, body of a rhinoceros. The Nuggets Warriors really are an enigma -- they don't fit the Phoenix style to a tee; it's almost like they exist as the lovechild between Steve Nash's Mavericks and Avery Johnson's Mavericks, speedy with roughneck sensibilities. Like if Paul Westhead were born in Queens. Whatever the case, it's an interesting team to study.

There's one more way to slice into the speedsters' psyche, though.

The Map of Riflemen & Roughnecks

This graph discriminates among the offenses, separating those who depend on the perimeter from those who camp the paint. The x-axis discerns foul-drawing rate, or what percentage of offensive possessions ends in foul shots. The y-axis investigates dependency on three-pointers in field goal attempts (which the actual equation being 3pa/fga). Teams in the upper-left quadrant shoot a good deal of threes and don't draw fouls, thus living on the perimeter when compared to their contemporaries in the lower-right, who shoot more twos than threes and draw more fouls than average.

The Denver mystique comes into play here. Zippy brethern Phoenix and Golden State sit high among the riflemen; Denver is regulated just north of the brass-knucklers. We've already learned the Nuggets weren't afraid to rough some folks up, which would theoretically transfer to the offensive side (as it does); the lack of reliance on threes is more stunning. Considering the team doesn't foul much, it's surprising to see them draw so many -- especially existing as a very fast team. Fast teams shoot fast, which typically means pulling up for the first decent opportunity. Denver's favorite opportunity is sliding into the lane, though. That means more fouls and less threes. As Carmelo Anthony is without question the Don on offense, and as Melo has an incredible midrange post game, it shouldn't be such a leap of reason. But laid out in such stark contrast with the Gunners Anonymous we had previously lumped Denver with, it's a jolt. The Nuggets are not who we thought they were.

Houston's asynchronous presence with the Gunners deserves a look, too. The reliance on threes can be explained by the pair of Rocket point guards: Luther Head and Rafer Alston each take half their shots from long-range. (Shane Battier has a similar disposition.) And Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady are the only two Rockets to draw fouls, so there you go: Houston is full of germaphobic snipers, despite being defensive stalwarts and slowpokes.

Hope these maps helped give you a different look at the league. If so, click that shiny hype button up top. Many thanks to basketball-reference.com for the statistics and Jason Gurney for the image assistance.