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MLB's April Surprises and Disappointments

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Ahhh...April. You bring us so much joy. With the scanning of those first tickets, sale of those first steamy hot dogs, and of course, rising for the singing of our national anthem, the sports community shares a communal sigh of pleasure when you bring us Major League Baseball’s opening day.

And while April is by no means an indicator of what we will see in October, it can still be fun to make some comparisons. Why not right? The first pitch of the season also signifies the beginning of batting averages, ERAs, and of course, bitter losing streaks. So to kick off the MLB season we asked a few baseball bloggers to speak out and share some early opinions. Here’s what we asked:
1. Pick the team that surprised you the most this April.
2. Pick the team that so far has been the biggest disappointment in April.
3. End of season predictions: At the end of the year will these picks still be a disappointment or pleasant surprise?

Read on to see if you agree, disagree, or want to add your own input.

Blogger: Sooze
Site: Babes Love Baseball

1. The biggest surprise this month has been the Seattle Mariners, who've been pretty exciting to watch. They're heading into May with a 13-9 record after being literally the worst team in baseball last season. They're sitting atop the American League West, 2 1/2 games ahead of the Texas Rangers and 3 1/2 ahead of the Los Angeles Angels, the best team of the 2008 baseball season. They're getting contributions from nearly everyone on the team, including Endy Chavez, Yuniesky Betancourt, Mike Sweeney and Wladimir Balentien. If Jarrod Washburn and Erik Bedard continue to pitch this well, they're going to give the three other teams in their division a run for their money.

2. Not that I suspected a repeat of the Tampa Bay Rays 2008 season, but they had a pretty awful April. They have compiled a not-so-great 9-14 record at the end of the month, in the all-too-familiar basement of the AL East, where they sit 5.5 games behind the Boston Red Sox, who are on fire as usual. They can't just rely on Matt Garza to carry them through the season, they're going to need to get better pitching performances from Andy Sonnanstine and Scott Kazmir, as well.

3. I really think both teams are going to do a 180. The Mariners will depend heavily on their pitching to stay near the top of the AL West and might have a very difficult time fending off the Angels. Meanwhile, the Rays' youth may end up being their Achilles heel. Sadly, I doubt they'll end up winning the AL East again.

Blogger: David Pinto

Site: Baseball Musings
1. My biggest surprise is the Mariners. I thought they had a chance with Hernandez and Bedard at the front of the rotation, but I didn’t think the pitching staff would be this good overall. The other interesting thing is that they’re doing it without a lot of offense. They’re allowing 3.82 runs per game, 2nd lowest in the AL, but they are also scoring 4.23 runs per game, also second lowest. Usually, two extremes like that mean a .500 team, but so far, the pitching is much better than the hitting is bad.
 
2. The biggest disappointment is Oakland. With the addition of Giambi and Holliday and the collapse of the Angels staff, Oakland seemed to be poised to win the AL West. The big guns aren’t hitting, and the lineup spreads out the players who do hit so they can’t concentrate their offense. The pitching, which was the big question mark is fine, third lowest runs allowed per game in the AL.  The offense, however, is worse than that, worst in the AL.
 
3. The Mariners will be a pleasant surprise. Beltre will start to hit eventually, and that will help the team. I have no doubt that the pitching is real, especially Bedard and Hernandez.
 
The A’s will probably play better. I don’t expect Giambi and Holliday to slump all year. However, the A’s offense has disappointed for a number of seasons now, so I wouldn’t be surprised if that continued.

Blogger: Peter Schiller
Site: Baseball Reflections

When I was asked to participate in this BallHype original article looking at the most surprising and disappointing teams after the first month of the season, I jumped at the opportunity. Although, in my opinion, it is too soon to make season-long judgments the two teams that have most surprised me have been the Seattle Mariners and the Tampa Bay Rays.

1. The most surprising team in the month of April in my opinion was the Seattle Mariners who have welcomed home OF/DH Ken Griffey Jr. who still owns the sweetest swing in baseball. They are in 1st place in the AL West primarily due to great pitching out of the  top three slots in the rotation.

"King" Felix Hernandez is 4-0 so far after 5 starts with an ERA of 2.38, a WHIP of 1.09 to go along with 36 Ks while holding batters to a .220 batting average against in 34 innings averaging at least 6 innings per start.

Erik Bedard is only 2-1, but is sporting an ERA of 2.61, a WHIP of 1.06 to go along with 32 Ks while holding batters to a .231 batting average against in 31 innings averaging at least 6 innings per start.

Jarrod Washburn is 3-1 with an ERA of 3.42, WHIP of 1.10, but he only has 17 Ks while holding batters to a .220 batting average against in 26.1 innings averaging at least 6 innings per start.

Having your first three starters pitching that good will keep your bullpen rested while keeping you in games going into the late innings.

On the offensive side of the ball, aside from gaining Griffey, they have replaced Raul Ibanez in the OF with Endy Chavez who will not knock in 100 RBIs or hit 30 HRs, but he is hitting .305 with an OBP of .374, 11 RBIs and is another stolen base threat, to go along with Ichiro, with 5 SBs thus far.

Replacing Sexton at 1B is converted 3B/OF Russell Branyan whom they acquired in free agency this past off season. At 33, he is finally showing his long sought after potential as he's hitting .333 with an OBP of .415 to go along with 4 HRs, 10 RBIs 14 Rs & 1 SB.

Leading the team in RBIs is 2B Jose Lopez.

While their offense doesn't put fear in the hearts of opposing pitchers, they are getting the job done so far and if the pitching keeps this up and new closer Brandon Morrow doesn't become erratic, Seattle might just make a run at the AL West this year.

2. That leaves the most disappointing team in the month of April as the defending AL Champion Tampa Bay Rays who are fielding a similar team this year than they did in the World Series. They traded away 5th starter Edwin Jackson to the Tigers, but they have added former World Series opponent DH/LF Pat Burrell.

The big problem for the Rays thus far is poor pitching, especially in the bullpen leading up to closer Troy Percival.

Both starters James Shields (3.74 ERA) and Matt Garza (3.82 ERA & 34 Ks) are only 2-2 and all other starters have an ERA over 4.40.

Set up men Grant Balfour and Dan Wheeler are sporting ERAs over 6.00 (Wheeler's is over 8.50).

On the flip side, after 16 games and a delay to his season due to injury, CF BJ Upton is only hitting .177 without any HRs, but does have 5 SBs. Still, they need him to be more productive than that!

Other than that, the offense is doing their part as 1B Carlos Pena has 9 HRs and 24 RBIs; 3B Evan Longoria is hitting .369 with an OBP of .419 while hitting 6 HRs and 24 RBIs of his own.

The blame falls on the pitching, especially the bullpen. I do not expect this problem to remain for much longer as I do not foresee them being any lower than 3rd place in the AL East given their slow start. On the other hand, for Seattle to maintain their threat to the AL West title, their offense needs to show me more than this! Not Branyan or Chavez, mind you, but the rest of the team needs to be more productive or their hot start will soon fizzle.


Blogger: Mark Townsend
Site: Bugs and Cranks
1. Toronto. I'm not so much surprised by how well their lineup is producing, but I am surprised by their no nonsense approach.  They just keep hitting, and the bullpen (save for BJ Ryan) closes the door every night. It's a nice little formula that very few teams are capable of pulling off.

2. Arizona. After reaching the NLCS in 2007 many figured this team would be scary good by now. All the starting pitching you could ask for (Haren and Garland added since then), a core of young, athletic position players, and yet this team has been in steady regression since last June. Maybe they peaked too soon.  Maybe they'll never recover from the premature (franchise changing) trade of Carlos Quentin.  Whatever the case, they may be the first team to launch their manager in 2009.

3. Reality will set in for Toronto sooner or later.  It's not that I don't think they can finish over .500, it's just there's a comfortable spot waiting for them in 4th place in the AL East and eventually they will settle into their place.

For Arizona, a possible turnaround hinges on the health of their pitching—and their ace is not healthy. Whatever the deal with Brandon Webb's shoulder is—whether it be physical or he's straight from Mark Prior's school of hypochondria—will determine if they have a shot at the playoffs. Without Webb they may struggle to finish above 4th out West.


Blogger: Brad Bortone
Bugs and Cranks

1. Surprise: Dodgers - I had expected them to limp out of the gate, but all they've done is prove that Manny was the expensive icing, rather than the cake.

2. Disappointment: Mets - They fix the bullpen to the tune of a 1.82 ERA, but are now searching for timely hitting, smart base running and a myriad of other fundamentals.  This may be the most expensive .500 team to date.

3. End of Season: I anticipate a boost in Mets' performance, while the Dodgers will return to earth, and both will see some form of postseason play.


Blogger: Patrick Smith
Site: Bugs and Cranks

1. At the moment, Seattle's the biggest surprise to me. As awful as they were last year, I thought they'd be buried by now.

2. I'm most disappointed by the Nationals. I knew they weren't very good, but I didn't figure them for a complete meltdown right out of the gate.

3. NL: Dodgers, Cubs, Phillies, Mets (wild card) AL: Boston, Detroit, Angels, Yankees (wild card) Dodgers over Yankees. Nothing is more disappointing than that.

Site: Diamond Hoggers
1. I am most surprised at the Toronto Blue Jays to be honest. The Marlins are a surprise but they were the best team in baseball at a point early in last season too. The Blue Jays play in a deeper division and just don't have the star power the Marlins do.
 
2. Cleveland Indians. I knew they didn't have much pitching but I didn't know that they'd be this level of poor. They're in big trouble with the way Cliff Lee and Fausto Carmona have looked.
 
3. I said at season's beginning the Yankees would win the World Series led by Cy Young AJ Burnett. They'll beat the Cubs.

Blogger: Steve
Site: Not Qualified To Comment

1. I'm assuming this means in a positive way, not like "surprise, we're Milwaukee, and we're terrible!" There definitely have been some surprising division leaders in the AL with Toronto, KC, and Seattle all leading at some point. I think Florida has been the biggest surprise so far though. A lot of people couldn't name two Marlins outside of Hanley and Uggla, and there they are on top of a tough NL East after starting 11-1. Then they got swept by the Pirates. Surprise!

2. Ah, here we go, surprisingly bad. The Yankees and Red Sox started slow, but they're on the way back to restoring painful order to the AL East. I'll go back to the Brewers as the most disappointing team in April. Have the Brewers forgotten that their collapse isn't supposed to happen until late summer? Sure, they lost their ace and Sheets is still hurt, but the Brewers are a better team than an NL Central bottom dweller.  

3. The Marlins will probably fade into obscurity shortly after the all-star break because their division is so tough. The Phillies and Mets are off to slow starts, but will eventually rise to the top. Florida has a lot of good young talent though and could factor in soon. The Brewers? Who knows what they're going to do. The Cubs are the class of that division and the Cardinals seem to find ways to win games without good players most years, so I'll say the Brewers stay behind the pack.  

Blogger: Tyler Hissey
Site: Tyler’s Articles

1. The Pittsburgh Pirates have surprised me a bit, though I do not expect their early success to last very long. In 2008, the Pirates' starting rotation featured one pitcher who posted an ERA+ above 100, which represents league average. Earlier this week, pretty much that same group of pitchers was leading the circuit in starters' ERA.

2. The Tampa Bay Rays have gotten off too a poor start. It is still early, but several of their key position players are really struggling. That roster is still loaded with talent, though, so I expect them to pick it up—even in the American League East.

3. The Pirates will almost certainly regress, especially in that rotation. Several Pittsburgh starters have produced poor peripherals and unsustainable batting averages on balls in play; if you don't miss bats and give up home runs, eventually the runs will come. That group will again end up being a disappointment in the long run, and the Bucs will end up near the cellar of the National League  Central.

As for the Rays, I think they will still be in the thick of things in the A.L. East. They have an excellent defense, a strong rotation and a few of the best position players in the game. The club actually struggled a bit out of the gate in '08 as well, but ended up winning 97 games on the way to the  World Series. That division will make it tough, but Tampa Bay is a lot better than what we have seen in the first few weeks.
1 Comment
  • Detroit4lyfe Detroit4lyfe
    +1

    I was asked to do this and I flaked...actually, I just forgot because I've been so busy with things... but I do want to weigh in my opinion anyway.  Here is what I would have said:

     1.  The biggest surprise in April, in my opinion (and in a bad surpise way) was the Tampa Bay Rays.  I understand that they are fresh off their first ever World Series berth and there is probably a "hang over" involved, but I would not have expected this team with the addition of Burrell and after having the experience of playing through a tough playoff run they would come out this flat to start the season. I think a lot of it has to do with BJ Upton not performing up to expectations, Kazmir possibly dealing with arm problems, and the loss of Edwin Jackson (terrible trade for the Rays).  Either way, given all that, I probably still would not have guessed them to be 6 under .500 right before the end of April and in the cellar.

    2.   The biggest disappointment at this point has to be the Cleveland Indians.  They spent a lot of money on closer Kerry Wood this off season shoring up a blotchy bullpen, and were predicted by many "experts" to win the Central Division.  Instead, they started the season 0-5 and have been clawing their way back ever since.  While I'm not too disappointed in this performance due to the fact my Tigers are in their division, this has to be a huge disappointment for Cleveland's organization given the expectations.

    3.  I think both teams will turn it around, but I don't see either one making the playoffs.  The Rays are starting to play better and the Indians are too, however they both find themselves playing catch up as teams ahead of them used these team's early struggles to put some cushion between.  If I had to guess, I think the Indians have the best chance of making a full recovery and competing for the division, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Rays make a run either.  

    Detroit4lyfe.com

    Posted 5/7/2009 respond (flag)
Blog Reactions

Early Surprises
baseballmusings.com — BallHype polled bloggers to see which teams were the biggest surprises and disappointments in April of 2009.

Links For Wednesday
Around the Majors — ... to as a high character guy by the likes of Daytom Moore. Yet, when he was sent down to the minors last summer in the middle of a disastrous .653 OPS campaign, he cried and moaned like a little girl. I guess that character intangible only works when everything is going right for certain guys. The Dodgers have locked up the West, writes Dave Cameron. The Twins have demoted Alexi Casillia, as Cameron touches on here. I was asked to provide a brief recap of April's surprises and disappointments over at BallHype. Kerry Whisnant ...

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