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NBA Festivus: Southeast Edition
tziller posted 9/27/2007 from ballhype.com
Between now and the start of the NBA season, Ballhype's NBA Festivus will bring you plenty of reasons you should not be optimistic about your favorite team heading into 2006-07. Previously: the Atlantic. Now serving: The Southeast Division.
For all the crap the Atlantic got last season, the Southeast might have been worse from a performance standpoint. Atlanta finished with the fourth worst record in the league; Charlotte spent three-quarters of the season on Odenwatch; the three Southeast teams which made the playoffs went 0-12 there. Injuries ravaged Washington and Miami; Brian Hill ravaged Orlando. Will health and Stan Van Gundy, along with new additions Jason Richardson, Rashard Lewis and Al Horford, save the Southeast from the dregs this year?
The Airing of Grievances
Oh, the ways the Southeast has disappointed me. I'm a big fan of many Southeastern stars large and small -- Gilbert Arenas, Hedo Turkoglu, Michael Doleac, Gerald Wallace, John Edwards... what?! Atlanta let John Edwards slip away?!!! (Last summer, actually.) That's it, Grievance #1 in the book. Ryan Bowen-clones sharing a name with a big-ticket presidential candidate do not grow on trees, Billy Knight!
All told, Atlanta's offseason was infinitely better than it should have been. Knight can't take any credit, of course, unless he planted the loaded balls in the hopper which screwed Boston, Memphis and Milwaukee. That actually makes some sense... Knight rigs the lottery and still ends up on the relative short end. (No offense to Al Horford.) Atlanta could have ended up with no lottery picks; instead, they take two. That is, of course, the only thing the Hawks did all summer, unless you count settling the ownership issues which have steeped the franchise in a front office stalemate for years, a stalemate which doesn't allow decisions bolder than 'let John Edwards walk' to be made. Wait, the issues weren't resolved? In fact, things are less certain than ever? Awesome.
I appreciate head coach Mike Woodson (despite his jockblocking Reggie Theus, who tried to hire Larry Drew away). Woodson can coach defense fairly well (despite finishing 23rd in said category last season), and I can't imagine many coaches would fair better given his roster/situation. But... it's not very reassuring to know your head coach has only kept his job because the front office would have trouble trying to fire him. This is why Billy Knight has a job, too -- Steve Belkin wants to can him but can't; the other owners can't can Knight because it might vindicate Belkin. Every suit is in place not because they're the right fit for the job... it's because the bosses can't do crap while they're slinging their own crap at each other. It's either perfect or perfectly insane, depending on your perspective.
Josh Smith hasn't gotten an extension yet, and word-of-mouth says he's asking for way more than even Billy Knight will commit. What's that mean? Josh Smith, restricted free agent in summer 2008. If you're cynical, Smith's strategy for this season become 'don't get hurt' followed closely by 'inflate those stats.' Smith is a Shawn Marion-type who would get the stats in the right system. Unfortunately, Atlanta has no system (let alone the right system), so Smith ends up with non-awesome offensive stats. A shame. For Josh Smith's wallet.
From a 'talent balance sheet' standpoint, Charlotte had the best offseason: They kept Wallace at a reasonable price and infused Jason Richardson. J-Rich is overpaid (he'll make roughly 50 percent more than Kevin Martin this season, for example), but he can be a dynamite scorer. Charlotte needed a consistent scorer and has cap room to burn... for now. That deal might start feeling heavy when Emeka Okafor gets his extension (any day now; should be the second biggest in this class behind Dwight Howard's max), not to mention the pipeline of Ray Felton and Sean May (next summer). Richardson's contract isn't worth a #8 pick in a solid draft -- either Brandan Wright or Joakim Noah could've helped the Cats today, tomorrow and forever (especially Noah). But the positive of Richardson's entrance is we'll get to see even less Adam Morrison. Or will we?
Knowing the unfairness of the world, we'll probably get less Walter Herrmann and Matt Carroll, two very able scorers in their own right. Morrison scored 15.8 points/40 minutes on .450 true shooting last year; Herrmann went 18.9 on .625 and Carroll gave 18.5 on .580. Morrison, terrible as he was, held Charlotte's bench mob back. If Sam Vincent feels pressure from above to let the #3 pick loose, two nice scorers will be stuck to the bench while we watch a mustache fire bricks. AWESOME.
Speaking of Mr. Vincent... how crazy is it that Reggie Theus -- a former (All-Star) ballhog and TV actor whose only coaching experience is two years of WAC basketball -- wasn't the most insane rookie coach hire of the summer? We knew Michael Jordan was into cronyism. But wow... Sam Vincent? A guy who played seven years of mediocre ball and coached (in this order) the Nigerian national team, the NBDL's Fort Worth Flyers, and was an assistant for Avery Johnson in Dallas... all of those stints for one year? And ESPN's Marc Stein -- if he's not plugged into Dallas, no one is -- says folks around the Mavs organization doubt Vincent's ready to take over a team? And Dell Curry already quit as an assistant? I have no qualms over hiring folks you're comfortable with; it's hiring pals who don't really seem prepared to handle a pretty important job which is problematic.
Orlando also added an overpaid scorer and a new coach. Except their overpaid scorer is REALLY OVERPAID -- like, in a year or two he'll be the Barry Zito of basketball -- and their new coach has tons of experience. Behind the Wallace extension, hiring Stan Van Gundy is probably the best move any Southeast team made this summer. Of course, SVG wasn't Orlando's first choice. Otis Smith tried to bring in Billy Donovan (and succeeded for a minute), a young college coach whose biggest strength at Florida has been recruiting (a skill not so important in the pros). The Donovan episode almost got SVG to Sacramento, which would have left Orlando with... Jim O'Brien? Sam Vincent? Reggie Theus? Nonetheless, success prevailed and Orlando got clearly the best veteran coach on the market. Joy of joys.
Then Smith decided to ensure SVG would never get another free agent to work with again. Rashard Lewis is a good player, a fantastic scorer. He is not a $20 million per year player. Even next season -- the first and smallest year of the deal -- Lewis is among the 20 highest salaries in the league. Is he a top-20 player? He has one All-Star game to his name, and he is 28 years old. He has never been named to even the All-NBA third team. In two years, he will be making more than Tim Duncan, Steve Nash and Dirk Nowitzki. Orlando could have signed him to a five-year deal for about $94 million. No one else was in contention for his services. Yet Rashard's agent somehow got a sixth year (and that extra $24ish million) out of Orlando. Judging by Otis Smith's oeuvre, I can't imagine it was difficult. Combine Rashard's deal with Dwight Howard's no-brainer $80 million extension and... Orlando's capped out for a while. Even renouncing Darko Milicic was a mistake -- they tied their hands in wooing a decent point guard to either work with or replace Jameer Nelson. (Never mind Darko ended up being a bargain for a worse team in a worse city for a Serbian to live in.)
But at least Orlando did something. I'd love to dissect the big moves middling Miami and Washington made... except they didn't do anything crazier than release James Posey and Calvin Booth, respectively. The Wizards gave up on a good guard in Juan Carlos Navarro for basically nothing and did absolutely nothing to fortify the frontcourt (besides bring in 21-year-old Handsome Oleksiy Pecherov, a shooting forward). Meanwhile the Heat struck out on every point guard option but Smush Parker -- a guy who can't shoot and can't defend. (He's like a small Antoine Walker.) Dwyane Wade is out the first two weeks, which means we could get the pleasure of Walker and Dorell Wright in the starting lineup. (They combined to go 89 for 339 from deep last season, a 26% rate. You definitely shouldn't double Shaq, though.) Pat Riley could soon be so desperate for scoring help he might give up Ron Rothstein and his condo on Lake Como for Mike Bibby.
Festivus Miracles
It will be miraculous if...Stan Van Gundy's Magic (the team, not the mustache) doesn't destroy the Heat on November 24.
Sean May plays 60 games.
Sean May looks at all fit at any point in the next 12 months.
Emeka Okafor doesn't get at least a $65 million extension for five years by Oct. 31.
Pat Riley takes no leaves of absence from the Heat this year.
The Heat go better than 5-5 in their first 10 games.
The Hawks ownership situation gets resolved by the end of the season.
Josh Smith wins the league sportsmanship award.
Marvin Williams gets a single vote for Most Improved Player.
Rashard Lewis justifies his contract with election to the All-NBA 2nd team or better.
A Southeast team finishes with one of the best four records in the conference.
Adam Morrison has fans left by the end of the season.
Feats of Strength
With a nod to Colbert, I argue with the only person who will listen to me over some key Southeast issues. We start with prospects of the Heat and Wizards. And we thank Howie for immortalizing us in JPEG format.
Ziller #1: Washington was rolling when the injury bug hit them. And Miami played great down the stretch, even with Dwyane Wade's injury. They finished 17-9 in their last 26 games.Ziller #2: Actually, they went 0-4 to finish the season. As in "Chicago 4, Miami 0, Series Over."
Ziller #1: These are recent champions, with only James Posey and broken-ass Gary Payton gone from the title run. Shaq's in shape, Wade's ready for his MVP season, Alonzo Mourning's back...
Ziller #2: This team, who was hot down the stretch, couldn't get a single win against a squad who finished third in their division. Miami, even when they looked good, was fool's gold all year. They had a negative point margin on the season. And they lost their best guard defender in Posey, their only good shooter in Jason Kapono... and brought in Smush Parker to play behind Jason Williams. Considering all the point guards Riley chased, Parker is something completely different. It just doesn't make sense.
Ziller #1: When you have Wade and Shaq, plus a great defender in Udonis Haslem and maybe the best backup center in the league in Mourning, you don't need a whole lot else. Look at 2006.Ziller #2: Lightning never strikes the same place twice.
Ziller #1: Even if you don't believe in Miami, you have to admit Washington is a threat to get to the Eastern Conference Finals.
Ziller #2: I think if playing four guards and one stiff center was a viable strategy, someone would have mastered it by now. Until the Wizards have a legitimate option inside 10 feet, they'll be too susceptible to those nights when the jumpers don't fall.
Ziller #1: Thanks to Gil Arenas and Caron Butler, they get to the line plenty enough to protect themselves from off shooting. And they were in the top half of the league in offensive rebounding.
Ziller #2: They could be the best offensive team in the league and they'd still be average. Their defense is that bad.
Ziller #1: Changing the subject, I see. Yes, defense is a huge problem for Washington. But Pecherov is a great rebounder, and Andray Blatche should help on the boards too. And don't discount Darius Songaila's impact -- he's a bruiser who looked healthy at Eurobasket. If Washington's offense is as good as it can be and the defense improves marginally, this can be an Eastern contender. If Miami's so bad and Washington's not great, who is the class of the Southeast?
Ziller #2: Orlando had a tremendous defense last year and I think they've addressed the offense by adding Rashard Lewis. This team could win 45 games, which is something neither Miami nor Washington did last year.
Ziller #1: They added Lewis but lost Grant Hill, their best offensive player last year. So it's a net small upgrade at best, not the complete rebirth some suggest. It might not even be that positive -- Hill could handle the ball, which was the Magic's key weakness. Shard has gotten more than six assists in a game twice in his career. And he's played 617 games. He averages less assists per game than everyone in Boston's starting lineup except Kendrick Perkins. With Jameer Nelson as your point guard and Hedo Turkoglu probably starting... who exactly will be setting up his teammates?
Ziller #2: It's not like Orlando's going to be a running team, not with SVG at the helm. With two go-to players in Shard and Howard, they don't need playmakers -- they need shooters. Hedo can stroke, Nelson can stroke, J.J. Redick might be able to stroke. The offense should be average, and the defense should be top 5. That smell is the playoffs, my friend. Waft it in. Waft it in.
Ziller #1: Whatever. So Charlotte? Sam Vincent says not making the playoffs would be a disappointment.
Ziller #2: Adam Morrison getting 30 minutes a night again would be a disappointment. What a disaster of a player. It wouldn't be so bad if they needed him -- but they don't! They have scorers. Imagine their prospects if they had Brandon Roy or Tyrus Thomas or Randy Foye instead of him.
Ziller #1: I still wouldn't consider them average if they had Roy. Ray Felton is outmatched in the backcourt -- he can't shoot worth a damn and he doesn't have Jason Kidd's gifts... he's in point guard no-man's land.
Ziller #2: He's great as a playmaker, though -- great assist and turnover rates, gets to the line decently. He can't be much worse than T.J. Ford.
Ziller #1: Ford shot a good deal better than Felton last year... so yeah, he's worse than Ford. It's too bad, because the offense looks like it will be built around Felton, who is inferior at his position... even in the East. They need to go way up-tempo to have a shot. And they need to not have May and Okafor miss half the season. And they need to banish Ammo to one of Saturn's moons.
Ziller #2: Agreed, on that last point. Atlanta is obviously still out of range. If Al Horford is good this year, they'll have a grand total of three good players.Ziller #1: They need Joe Johnson and Josh Smith to be great and Horford to win Rookie of the Year to make the playoffs. And they need all that plus Josh Childress to come to camp with his afro doubled in size to get anyone's attention. I just can't believe they let John Edwards and Esteban Batista walk in consecutive summers. Zaza Pachulia just lost half of his weekly poker game.
The Human Fund
It's time to get a bit more sincere.Final Standings
1. Orlando (44-38)
2. Washington (42-40)
3. Miami (40-42)
4. Charlotte (39-43)
5. Atlanta (31-51)
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Southeast MVP: Dwyane Wade
Southeast ROY: Al Horford
All-Stars: Wade, Shaq, Rashard, Dwight, Joe Johnson, Gilbert
All-NBA: Wade (1st team), Dwight (3rd team), Gil (3rd team)
Playoffs (Seed): Orlando (4), Washington (8)
Pat Riley's Self-Combustion: February 5th.
Next week: The Central.
