PECOTA’s Back

Links (15)

Hey, PECOTA is alive
Published 2/2/2008 by Jim at Sox Machine: Chicago White Sox blog
... . Nate Silver at Baseball Prospectus released his PECOTA projections , and here's a glance at how it sizes up the positional battles set to take place in Tucson: MIDDLE INFIELD: If Ramirez were to hit that projection, I'd probably wet myself. There were ...

You Say PECOTA, I Say PECATA
Published 2/2/2008 by Chris Needham at Capitol Punishment
Baseball Prospectus released their PECOTA projections the other day. Although, yes, they fall under the category of "BS Projections", they are an interesting look, and give you a perspective on our players and their potential. Essentially, PECOTA compares a player to every other player in baseball history and projects stats and performance based upon the subset of similar players. It factors in height/weight, performance, experience, age, ballpark, era of play and run environment and about a bazillion other things to find those comparable players. More background here , if you're bored. Just a few notes from some of our ...

Batting Order
Published 2/2/2008 by Tom at Redleg Nation
I think one of the interesting questions entering into this season is how will Dusty Baker setup the Reds batting order. I really don’t envy him this task, since I believe it will be difficult. Given our expected starting lineup, we really don’t have anyone who fits nicely into the top two positions and most of our best hitters are LH. Below is the best lineup possible as calculated by the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis tool when fed the Baseball Prospectus Pecota projections for the upcoming season. Best Reds Lineup 5.043 Runs ...

PECOTAing the Big Three
Published 2/2/2008 by Nick-YF at YFSF
... Baseball Prospectus has released its 2008 PECOTA Weighted Mean Projections (subscription required). Hey, I know that this forecasting thing is not everybody's cup of tea--predictions are silly; reality is more interesting and will actually happen--but I'm a big fan of the Nostradamus shows that pop up every once in a while, and ...

Bunt Singles: Groundhog Day
Published 2/2/2008 by Kurt at Mack Avenue Tigers
... to similar conclusion as Jon Paul Morosi at the Freep a few weeks back: the Tigers could benefit if Cabrera wants to become a free agent at age 30. That gives Detroit six of his potential Hall of Fame season, in the meantime hoping he really likes Detroit and is happy to only play for $30M per year by then. Remember when we thought Magg’s $75M-105M contract was a lot of money? Now that’s two or three seasons for some players. Baseball Prospectus released its PECOTA projections Which is a good reminder that I need to ...

The 2008 PECOTA’s are here
Published 2/2/2008 by billfer at The Detroit Tiger Weblog
... has released it’s 2008 player projection system known as PECOTA. What’s available at this point isn’t the full results of the system, just the weighted mean. PECOTA offers projections across a spectrum which are available on the player cards which will be forthcoming. What we have now is the middle. ...

Published 2/3/2008 by El Guapo's Ghost at El Guapo's Ghost Rambles on about the Red Sox
... Thankfully, Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA forecasting system does not see Coco and Lugo being the automatic outs their spots in the lineup were last year. PECOTA has Lugo hitting 275/337/384 and Coco going 278/338/407. Thus, the Sox should not have a third of the lineup sucking $hit in a quarter of the games. ...

“Writing” for the sake of writing
Published 2/3/2008 by MB at Friar Forecast
... PECOTA’s are up. In nonsensical fashion, I’ve got the monthly BP subscription (which is like $20 more a year than the year version), so I’ll have to wait until they update the player cards to see the projections. Remember that while PECOTA is probably the best system out there, all of the advanced ones (and even not so advanced) are ...

I Just Looked at BP's PECOTA Projections for the Pirates
Published 2/3/2008 by Charlie <info@buccosdugout.com> at Bucs Dugout: Front Page Posts
...And I wish I hadn't (subscription only). Man, it's a sad state of affairs. The program still sees Andrew McCutchen and Neil Walker having real upside (Grady Sizemore is on McCutchen's comparables list, and Troy Tulowitzki is on Walker's), but that's about it. And they didn't do a projection for Ian Snell, one of the few players who might have made those charts less depressing for me. Maybe that omission will provoke another round of conspiracy-theory rantings from fans who believe that BP just issues depressing projections for the Pirates ...

Predicting the Red Sox
Published 2/3/2008 by StatsGuru at Baseball Musings
... February 03, 2008 Predicting the Red Sox Yanksfans vs. Soxfan uses the newly release PECOTA (subscription required) projections to ...

They’re Talking Pecota
Published 2/3/2008 by davidbloom at BaseballHappenings.com
... With pitchers and catchers reporting in about 10 days, it’s also the start of projection season. Nate Silver and the team at Baseball Prospectus unveil the PECOTA projections (for BP subscribers). The name of the projection spelled out is Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm that boils down to the last name of Bill Pecota, a former major league utilityman. Here is who is talking about the Pecota 2008 projections: Catfish Stew: “BP’s new PECOTA projections love Huston Street. PECOTA ...

Day 56 And Counting
Published 2/3/2008 by IMHO at Rotisserie Baseball Musings
Expect fantasy baseball chatter to pick-up considerably over the next week or so leading into pitchers & catchers reporting on February 14th. Jeff Erickson' XM Radio show returns on Monday, and Nate Silver has just released his 2008 PECOTA projections. ...

Denard Span Challenges All Comers
Published 2/5/2008 by ubelmann at The WGOM
... and not much else. I mean, I'm happy that Denard is so confident in his ability to play baseball. If he thought he sucked, he'd probably be even worse than he is already. I just don't think he's ready for a role with the Twins just yet. (Of course, I don't really think that Pridie or Gomez are especially ready for a role with the Twins yet, either, but someone's gotta run around in CF.) The PECOTA forecasts for 2008 were recently released , and there was some interesting stuff regarding center field. The first thing that stood out to me was the ...

The running of the monkeys
Published 2/12/2008 by Sal Baxamusa at The Hardball Times
The running of the monkeys by Sal Baxamusa February 12, 2008 Player projections! It's become a rite of spring on par with pitchers and catchers. Over the last several weeks we've been treated to projections from Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster , Bill James and Baseball Info Solutions , Sean Smith's CHONE system , Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA and Dan Szymborski's ZiPS . In a few weeks, The Hardball Times will throw its hat into the ring with The Hardball Times Season Preview 2008 . Spring is the natural time to make projections ...

2008 Preview - Steve Pearce
Published 2/20/2008 by Matt Bandi at Pittsburgh Lumber Co.
... Projection System Xavier Nady Steve Pearce PECOTA .281/.338/.467 .267/.328/.444 ZiPS ...