Postseason Odds, PECOTA version

Links (127)

Hafner Extension Will Wait
Published 4/16/2007 by RotoAuthority at MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com
... Hafner and the Indians have some work done that could eventually form the basis of an extension.  Shapiro's comment on retaining his two big free agents makes sense: he'll do it if the money is there.  A big factor will be whether the Tribe reaches the playoffs this year.  Postseason revenue could help Shapiro sign both players before the '08 season begins.  Baseball Prospectus says the Indians have a 61% chance of making the playoffs.  They see 93-94 wins for Cleveland.

Where we stand now, and why this series is crucial.
Published 4/23/2007 by shawndgoldman at Another Cubs Blog
... . As of today s simulation, the Cubs end up with 85.8 wins on average, and have a 36% chance of making the playoffs. Of note is the average wins for each position in the NL Central: 96, 89, 83, 79, 73, and 65. That means that, on average, the winner of the division will have 96 wins, the 2nd place team 89, and so on. This is a much higher win total for each position than most of us would expect, so it indicates something is awry with the projections (like small sample size), we underestimate the strength of the division, or we are underestimating the power of the unbalanced schedule in boosting top teams records in weak divisions. We can also consider the PECOTA-adjusted postseason report , which is like the previous report but also takes into account PECOTA projections by regressing records to this year s

HopeThey say hope springs eternal, but for most of...
Published 5/7/2007 by Scott at The Northside Lounge
... and this tidbit from Peter Gammons... "Then there's the matter of plate discipline and on-base percentage. After one frustrating loss in April, Piniella went into the clubhouse and yelled, 'There's nothing wrong with taking a walk once in a while.' 'In reality, plate discipline and patience has to be taught in the minors and become part of the club's culture,' Piniella says. 'But we'll get more aware on the big league level. Believe me, it'll happen.'" ...that streak of uninterrupted despondency has come to an end. We picked some long overdue close wins this weekend, including our first one-run win of the season (!) yesterday afternoon. That has evened out the luck a bit, and the projected standings shows a two-horse race in the Central. I would generally say it's too early to worry exclusively about Milwaukee, but a number of factors conspire to allow for some scoreboard watching. Milwaukee is a talented you

Batting Average on Ballz in Playa! Part 1: Why its the critical question RIGHT NOW
Published 5/11/2007 by shawndgoldman at Another Cubs Blog
... can be found . While one may

Where we stand now
Published 5/21/2007 by Maddog at Another Cubs Blog
... The ELO version of the standings is, as shawn mentioned, how the team is doing right now. Momentum is considered and it takes about a half season for the previous season to no longer be considered. So these standings, at least partially, consider the awful 2006 Cubs season. Record: 77-85, 3rd place Odds of making the playoffs: 11.4% Odds of winnings the wild card: 1.1% Odds of winning the Division: 10.3% POST-SEASON ODDS REPORT (PECOTA VERSION) This report is based on the current standings and simulating the remainder of the season 1 million times using BP s PECOTA projections. Record: 88-74, 2nd place (Brewers at 91-71) Odds of making the playoffs: 46.3% Odds of winnings the wild card: 11.5% Odds of winning the Division: 34.8% - If you want to compare these numbers to the most recent entry you can read

Odds of making the playoffs
Published 5/24/2007 by Tangotiger (tangotiger@yahoo.com) at THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball
... sites that track daily the chances of each team of making the playoffs.  CoolStandings.com even offer two flavors, one the “smart”, and one the “dumb” (presumes a prior of .500 for each team).

Where we stand now
Published 5/28/2007 by Maddog at Another Cubs Blog
... The ELO version of the standings is, as shawn mentioned, how the team is doing right now. Momentum is considered and it takes about a half season for the previous season to no longer be considered. So these standings, at least partially, consider the awful 2006 Cubs season. Record: 77-85, 2nd place Odds of making the playoffs: 16.3% Odds of winnings the wild card: 0.6% Odds of winning the Division: 15.7% POST-SEASON ODDS REPORT (PECOTA VERSION) This report is based on the current standings and simulating the remainder of the season 1 million times using BP s PECOTA projections. Record: 88-74, 2nd place (Brewers at 89-73) Odds of making the playoffs: 51.3% Odds of winnings the wild card: 6.6% Odds of winning the Division: 44.8% - Shawn has found an article written by Bill James that pretty much explains away the difference between the Cubs actual record and their Pythagorean record. Here are Shawn s co

Good Standing(s)
Published 5/29/2007 by SF at YFSF
... ) the magic number (the Sox' stands at 101 following last night's victory over Cleveland).  At Baseball Prospectus, they even include PECOTA-adjusted playoff odds.  Today's Major League charts show a universe at peace, though we know chaos can ensue in the blink of an eye.  But there's more than just MLB when it comes to the standings, and more than just Boston and New York when it comes to the Red Sox and Yankees.  We poked around and found the following:

Groundhog Day
Published 5/30/2007 by Ben Felton at The Bard's Room
... No wonder things look so bleak.

Royals May Never Win Again
Published 5/30/2007 by royalsreview <info@royalsreview.com> at Royals Review: Front Page Posts
... -Playoff Odds, Pecota version: 61-101

Game 51: Feeling Like a Winner
Published 5/30/2007 by Eric at Keep Your Sox On: From Brooklyn to Boston
... It's almost frightening to say this, but every win puts me in an odder and odder place as a Red Sox fan. Baseball Prospectus predicts 106 wins for the Red Sox this season, a rate so fantastic that if the projections are even close (i.e., over 100 wins) they will make the 2007 Sox the winningest team in Red Sox history

Yanks Could Ditch Clemens
Published 6/4/2007 by RotoAuthority at MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com
... The value of a player certainly hinges on his ability to push a team into a playoff berth.  The $4.6MM a month for Clemens can almost be justified if it's getting the Yanks over the hump.  At fourth place and 12.5 games behind the Yankees, a division title is out.  They're seven games out of the wild card, but need to leapfrog seven teams.  Baseball Prospectus and PECOTA think the Yankees still have a 22% chance of making the playoffs. 

Where we stand now
Published 6/4/2007 by Maddog at Another Cubs Blog
... The ELO version of the standings is, as shawn mentioned, how the team is doing right now. Momentum is considered and it takes about a half season for the previous season to no longer be considered. So these standings, at least partially, consider the awful 2006 Cubs season. Record: 73.2-88.8, 3rd place Odds of making the playoffs: 8.2% Odds of winnings the wild card: 0.2% Odds of winning the Division: 8.0% POST-SEASON ODDS REPORT (PECOTA VERSION) This report is based on the current standings and simulating the remainder of the season 1 million times using BP s PECOTA projections. Record: 83.4-78.6, 2nd place (Brewers at 88.7-73.3) Odds of making the playoffs: 31.8% Odds of winnings the wild card: 3.5% Odds of winning the Division: 28.3% -

The Vegas Watch Index (AL Edition)
Published 6/5/2007 by Jacob Wheatley-Schaller at Vegas Watch
... Although the Yankees' ranking may seem a little inflated, I don't think it's all that out of line. Despite being buried in fourth place, Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA Postseason Odds gives them a 22% chance of making the playoffs (before tonight's loss).

White Sox Won't Trade For Prospects
Published 6/5/2007 by RotoAuthority at MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com
... The Sox are given a meager 1.7% chance to make the playoffs, according to Baseball Prospectus and PECOTA.  And I rounded up.  They're in fourth place, seven games back in the AL Central.  They're in fifth for the wild card, 4.5 games out.  If we try this exercise without PECOTA projections, the chances still seem bleak at 4.1%.  Using a third method, Elo, the Sox have an 11.2% chance.  I'd lean toward the latter; while the competition is fierce, 4.5 games doesn't seem insurmountable.

Read: Current Postseason Playoff Odds
Published 6/5/2007 by Mike Nichols at MetsBlog.com
... Clay Davenport of Baseball Prospectus provides the current postseason odds for every Major League team.

Beach House
Published 6/5/2007 by Whitney at Misery Loves Company: Two Guys Watch Baseball
... (who in turn borrowed the data from the Prospectus )... "According to Davenport the Mets have a 93.4% chance of making the playoffs, which is only second to the Red Sox, who have a 96.5% chance." Summertime . . . and the living is easy. Unfortunately, we aren't even to summer yet, and the breathing doesn't match that living just yet. Hold steady, boys.

The Vegas Watch Index (AL Edition)
Published 6/6/2007 by Jacob Wheatley-Schaller at Vegas Watch
... Although the Yankees' ranking may seem a little inflated, I don't think it's all that out of line. Despite being buried in fourth place, Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA Postseason Odds gives them a 22% chance of making the playoffs (before tonight's loss).

VWI Predicted Standings: AL
Published 6/11/2007 by Jacob Wheatley-Schaller at Vegas Watch
... VWI agrees with BP on Cleveland and Detroit, putting the Indians at about 65% to win the division. PECOTA really dislikes the White Sox, predicting them to win just 69 games. I don't think Chicago is particularly good, but that seems a little harsh. I would put the rest of the Central odds as follows: DET 30%, MIN 3%, CHW 2%. Sorry, Kansas City.

Where we stand now
Published 6/11/2007 by Maddog at Another Cubs Blog
... The ELO version of the standings is, as shawn mentioned, how the team is doing right now. Momentum is considered and it takes about a half season for the previous season to no longer be considered. So these standings, at least partially, consider the awful 2006 Cubs season. Record: 75.8-86.2, 3rd place Odds of making the playoffs: 14.9% Odds of winnings the wild card: 0.3% Odds of winning the Division: 14.6% POST-SEASON ODDS REPORT (PECOTA VERSION) This report is based on the current standings and simulating the remainder of the season 1 million times using BP s PECOTA projections. Record: 84.9-77.1, 2nd place (Brewers at 87.5-75.5) Odds of making the playoffs: 42.1% Odds of winnings the wild card: 5.0% Odds of winning the Division: 37.1% COMPARE TO PAST WEEKS

VWI Predicted Standings: NL
Published 6/12/2007 by Jacob Wheatley-Schaller at Vegas Watch
... ?). VWI isn't as high on the Mets as PECOTA, which has them winning 96.5 games. VWI also has the gap between the Braves and Phillies being smaller than PECOTA thinks it is.

VWI Predicted Standings: NL
Published 6/12/2007 by Jacob Wheatley-Schaller at Vegas Watch
... ?). VWI isn't as high on the Mets as PECOTA, which has them winning 96.5 games. VWI also has the gap between the Braves and Phillies being smaller than PECOTA thinks it is.

Trade Season
Published 6/16/2007 by Justin at On Baseball and the Reds
... Some more data: Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA-adjusted odds report gives the Reds an 0.5% chance of making the playoffs.

Where we stand now
Published 6/19/2007 by Maddog at Another Cubs Blog
... POST-SEASON ODDS REPORT (PECOTA VERSION) ...

Where we stand now
Published 6/25/2007 by Maddog at Another Cubs Blog
... POST-SEASON ODDS REPORT (PECOTA VERSION) ...

No, Fuck You
Published 7/2/2007 by The Feed at The Feed
... It would work as one, though. The Yankees are giving the finger to anyone and everyone who thought they would be contenders this season. Yesterday's 11-5 loss makes them losers in nine of their last 11 games and has them looking at three months of irrelevancy to close out the season. The Red Sox played a game under .500 for the month of June and the Yankees, even with their hot play in the first half of the month, are still 11 games out of first place. They are nine games out of the Wild Card with five teams ahead of them in the standings. Those are some desperate odds for a team that doesn't look all that good to begin with. The losing streak has been continued by poor play in every facet of the game at one point or another and there doesn't seem to be an answer in house for the problems. Not that they should go looking for help elsewhere. The only good thing that's happened this season is that the Yankee farm s ...

Where we stand now
Published 7/2/2007 by Maddog at Another Cubs Blog
... POST-SEASON ODDS REPORT (PECOTA VERSION) ...

Top 10 Futures Odds
Published 7/6/2007 by Jacob Wheatley-Schaller at Vegas Watch
I've come up with something of a formula to find the best futures odds on various sites. The details are uninteresting, but it involves Baseball Prospectus' Playoff Odds, and odds from four different sites ( ...

Game 85 Open Thread: July 8, 2007
Published 7/8/2007 by erik at Viva El Birdos: Front Page Posts
... According to the PECOTA version of the postseason odds at Baseball Prospectus, the Cards have less then a 2% shot at making the playoffs. While the recent mini-revival has been fun, the Brewers still look like the team to beat. Unless they suffer a pretty drastic meltdown, they should walk away with this division rather handily. Going back to BP's postseason odds, the Brew Crew has an 85% chance of doing just that. You and I may not like to hear it, and obviously computers don't hand out pennants, but the odds are pretty well stacked against the Card's favor. If things are still where they are at in the next few weeks, it's time to fold. Just for the sake speculation, here's a few goofy trade ideas I'd like to float: ...

Where we stand now
Published 7/9/2007 by Maddog at Another Cubs Blog
... POST-SEASON ODDS REPORT (PECOTA VERSION) ...

Second Half Preview: AL
Published 7/10/2007 by Jacob Wheatley-Schaller at Vegas Watch
... Maybe Alex Rodriguez leading the Yankees to a championship is just not meant to be. Despite being on pace for a 57 HR, 163 RBI year, the Yankees have only about a one in five chance of making the playoffs. And the chances of A-Rod returning next year may be even smaller than that. ...

How is Colorado Still 150:1?
Published 7/10/2007 by Jacob Wheatley-Schaller at Vegas Watch
... and PECOTA) to create these rankings. I've added a new column, "Expected", which is just what I would expect the line to be for each of these teams. ...

Odds to Win: Division
Published 7/11/2007 by Jacob Wheatley-Schaller at Vegas Watch
... , and here) BP projections have the A's chances of winning the West right at 10%. At ...

Emptyin' the Mailbox: Indians Edition
Published 7/11/2007 by Corey at Mistake by the Lake Sporting Times
... As a sports fan, I tend to err on the side of optimism. After all, isn't watching baseball supposed to give you joy? Right now, the Tribe has a 75.2% chance of making the postseason. Which sounds good to me. If they do falter in the end, I'll be upset like everyone else. But why not root them on now and try to enjoy the pennant chase? ...

Second Half Preview: NL
Published 7/12/2007 by Jacob Wheatley-Schaller at Vegas Watch
... Outlook: According to PECOTA, of the 22 teams that would miss the playoffs if the season ended today, the Cubs have the best shot of making the playoffs if the season ended September 30th (it does), at 40%. This is a two team race- the Cardinals are given about a 2.5% chance of sneaking in, but I can’t see that, and the other three teams are pretty much hopeless. Interestingly, BP has both the average WC winner and the Brewers at 90 wins, so at least the Cubs have something to shoot for. ...

Where we stand now
Published 7/16/2007 by Maddog at Another Cubs Blog
... POST-SEASON ODDS REPORT (PECOTA VERSION) ...

Two Reasons Not To Believe
Published 7/18/2007 by The Feed at The Feed
... The Yankees have won 9 of 12 and are three games above .500. That's causing some to re-evaluate their playoff chances. According to Baseball Prospectus's Playoff Odds they now have a 23% chance of making it to the postseason with the Wild Card remaining their most likely position. ...

Really big things
Published 7/19/2007 by Kurt at Mack Avenue Tigers
... The Tigers make the playoffs 89% of the time according to Baseball Prospectus’ computer simulation. ...

Handicapping World Series Chances
Published 7/24/2007 by Jacob Wheatley-Schaller at Vegas Watch
Using Baseball Prospectus' Postseason ...

JoeChat
Published 7/25/2007 by Ken Tremendous at FIRE JOE MORGAN
... They have excellent hitters, 1-9. They have excellent starting pitching. It is relatively easy to predict what is going to happen in Detroit. They are going to make the playoffs, probably. BP's PECOTA-adjusted odds report has them at 71.3% to win the division and 18.9% to win the WC. There. I just predicted it. ...

Where we stand now
Published 7/30/2007 by Maddog at Another Cubs Blog
... POST-SEASON ODDS REPORT (PECOTA VERSION) ...

shock, awe and joy
Published 8/2/2007 by gaius marius at 1060west.net (archives)
... that is not a huge difference, and it could easily be overcome with some more good fortune -- but that's the baseline expectation. contra reportage such as baseball prospectus' playoff odds reports, which focus on runs scored and allowed but make no adjustment for babip and so show the cubs a slight favorite, i'd suspect the balance of expectation still tipped in the opposite direction. ...

Where we stand now
Published 8/6/2007 by Maddog at Another Cubs Blog
... POST-SEASON ODDS REPORT (PECOTA VERSION) ...

2007 MLB Playoff Odds Reports
Published 8/10/2007 by digital-derek at SawxBlog
... Playoff Odds Report (PECOTA adjusted) ...

Where we stand now
Published 8/13/2007 by Maddog at Another Cubs Blog
... POST-SEASON ODDS REPORT (PECOTA VERSION) ...

THT Mailbag: Red Sox Nation, please exhale
Published 8/17/2007 by Bryan Tsao at The Hardball Times
... to keep pace. Granted, the Yankees have won 74% of their games in the past five weeks, so if you're a pessimistic Red Sox fan, you might be worried. But look at who they played in that stretch: the Angels (two games), Devil Rays (eight games), Blue Jays (seven games), Royals (seven games), Orioles (seven games), White Sox (three games), Cleveland (three games) and Tigers (one game). All in all, that's only 13 games out of 38 against teams above .500. So while it's not outside the realm of possibility for the Yankees to catch the Red Sox, a two unlikely pieces would both have to fall into place: 1) The Yankees would have to play as well as they have the past five weeks against the rest of their significantly harder schedule (just 15 of 41 remaining games against teams currently under .500) 2) The Red Sox would have to play worse than they have for the past five weeks. Neither of these is likely, and both happening are extremely unlikely. A quick glance at Baseball Prospectus' ...

Where we stand now
Published 8/20/2007 by Maddog at Another Cubs Blog
... POST-SEASON ODDS REPORT (PECOTA VERSION) ...

Mazz: It's Over
Published 8/27/2007 by redsock at The Joy of Sox
... projection ...

Where we stand now
Published 8/27/2007 by Maddog at Another Cubs Blog
... POST-SEASON ODDS REPORT (PECOTA VERSION) ...

Baseball Today: Tuesday, August 28
Published 8/28/2007 by Art Martone (amartone@projo.com) at Projo Sox Blog
... . The numbers of Baseball Prospectus are almost identical. Both systems list the Yankees' chances of winning the division as virtually nil (obviously, if the Sox are at 98.8 percent) and their chances of making the playoffs at around 48 percent. ...

A Long Slide
Published 8/31/2007 by rluzinski at Another Baseball Blog
From Baseball Prospect's PECOTA adjusted playoff odds report: ...

TBS Postseason Billboard Promotes Team That is Unlikely to Make Postseason
Published 8/31/2007 at FanIQ Blog
... For those who are wondering, the Braves currently have a 17.1471% chance of making the playoffs. They are by no means eliminated, but TBS could have picked from 11 other teams that are more likely to make the playoffs and are not featured on the billboard. If you figure they wanted 2 AL & 2 NL teams, that still leaves 7 better choices. ...

This Year, It’s Us
Published 9/19/2007 by mattmatros at Hot Foot
... These are the times that try men’s souls–and I’m talking more about the souls of the fans than the souls of the ballplayers. Management is gambling that Baseball Prospectus, and their cockamamie math that still gave us a 95% chance of winning the division going into yesterday, knows what its doing. Management is gambling that we can go with a six-man rotation and rest our veterans, at the expense of running guys like Brian Lawrence out on the mound. Management is gambling that we can pull Moises “I get a hit every at-bat” Alou if he feels even the slightest stiffness in his quad, just as a precaution. Management is gambling that we can do all these things and still win the division. Management makes this gamble because it is confident that the 2007 New York Mets will not screw this up, just as the 2006 Cardinals didn’t. It may ...

Odds
Published 9/19/2007 by redsock at The Joy of Sox
... PECOTA version: W L East Card P-Offs ...

Where we stand now
Published 9/21/2007 by Maddog at Another Cubs Blog
... BP Playoff Odds Report, PECOTA Adjusted: 77.95% ...

Three. It's the magic number.
Published 9/26/2007 by Mike Miliard at Sox Blog
... to win the AL East. (Above 98 if you believe ...

Brewers at Cubs open game thread
Published 4/3/2008 by Maddog (maddog@anothercubsblog.net) at Another Cubs Blog
... BP’s PECOTA-adjusted Playoff Odds has the Cubs down to a 51% odds and the Brewers up to 47%.  A loss today and the two will have an equal chance based on the PECOTA projections.  ...

Where we stand now
Published 4/8/2008 by Maddog (maddog@anothercubsblog.net) at Another Cubs Blog
... team is playing at the moement, the momentum also means that early in the season these standings have a lingering effect from the previous season. In Nate Silver’s article describing the methodology, he says it takes about half a season for the effects of the previous season to be washed out of the system. The Brewers have the highest odds using the ELO report in the division at 38% while the Reds are 2nd.  The Cubs are at 28.9%. BP also provides the pecota-adjusted postseason odds.  ...

Futures Watch: Week 2
Published 4/9/2008 by Vegas Watch at Vegas Watch
... The main tool I use in doing this, beyond common sense, is the BP Playoff Odds report. There are multiple versions of it, but this early in the season the PECOTA version is the useful one. It takes into account games that have been played, but also uses PECOTA's ...

I'll Be Here For You David
Published 4/10/2008 by Andrew at True Blue LA: Front Page Posts
... and we would have a one game playoff to determine who took the NL West. Because of this, the Dodgers and Diamondbacks came into the series with near equal chances to make the playoffs. Arizona had about half a percentage point lead, most likely because they haven’t got to play the Giants yet. After taking three games though, the half a percentage point difference suddenly became a five percent difference in both directions. The sweep means the Diamondbacks are now 10 percent more likely than the Dodgers to make the playoffs. Now, the important question is does ...

Where we stand now
Published 4/14/2008 by Maddog (maddog@anothercubsblog.net) at Another Cubs Blog
... POST-SEASON ODDS REPORT (PECOTA VERSION): 58.51% ...

Hands Down: Brought To You By The Number 4 Edition
Published 4/20/2008 by Jessica Bader at Take the 7 Train
... with other idiots than actually watching the game. Sadly, stuff like this happens all too often, and I doubt that even limiting beer sales during games would make much of a difference - it would only punish the people who can handle their drinks, as the troublemakers would just get plastered before coming to the ballpark. Ring Finger: Two links to bookmark for future reference: Baseball Prospectus’s Playoff Odds Reports (the basic version and the version that incorporates PECOTA projections and is probably more useful this early in the ...

Finding The Happy Medium
Published 4/22/2008 by Vegas Watch at Vegas Watch
... I try to put things in perspective by looking at BP's PECOTA Playoff Odds report. See, that's better. The Orioles only have a 1.25% chance of reaching the playoffs. The world makes more sense now. ...

Where we stand now
Published 4/22/2008 by Maddog (maddog@anothercubsblog.net) at Another Cubs Blog
... POST-SEASON ODDS REPORT (PECOTA VERSION) ...

Where we stand now
Published 4/28/2008 by Maddog (maddog@anothercubsblog.net) at Another Cubs Blog
... POST-SEASON ODDS REPORT (PECOTA VERSION) ...

Break Up The Rays
Published 4/29/2008 by Vegas Watch at Vegas Watch
... 25:1 is too high. Those are very good odds. Should they be +233, as PECOTA suggests? No, that'd be ridiculous. But there's a whole lot of room between +233 and +2500. ...

Futures Watch: Week 5
Published 4/30/2008 by Vegas Watch at Vegas Watch
Sorry about the lack of posts over the past couple days. Finals week. Last week: Atlanta, 40:1; now 30:1 Cleveland, 17:1; now 12:1 This week: Oakland, 75:1 (BetUS) Current Record: 17-12 PECOTA Playoff Odds: 33.3% Tampa Bay, 125:1 (BetUS) Current Record: 15-12 PECOTA: 36.8% Some books are giving these guys respect, but not all of them, causing for some huge gaps. You can still get Oakland at 75:1, but they're 20:1 at ...

This is What Three Wins Looks Like
Published 5/3/2008 by rluzinski at Another Baseball Blog
... ZiPS says Bush is about a run per 9 innings worse than Gallardo. That's going to work out to around 2 or 3 less wins. BP projected 90.4 wins and a coin flip chance at the playoffs before the injury. I'd change that to about 88 wins and a 25% chance at this point. ...

Where we stand now
Published 5/6/2008 by Maddog (maddog@anothercubsblog.net) at Another Cubs Blog
... POST-SEASON ODDS REPORT (PECOTA VERSION) ...

Futures Watch: Week 6
Published 5/8/2008 by Vegas Watch (noreply@blogger.com) at Vegas Watch
... and are now 500:1. It's not like their World Series chances doubled; the folks at VIP probably just realized there is no reason to put a team at 1000:1 to win the World Series in early May. The Reds were not as fortunate, going 1-5. This dropped their PECOTA Playoff Odds from 8.8% to 5.9%. Their odds are probably about right at this point. This week: Oakland, 45:1 (5Dimes) Current Record: 21-14 PECOTA Playoff Odds: 34.2% Tampa Bay, 100:1 (Sportsbook) Current Record: ...

Where we stand now
Published 5/12/2008 by Maddog (maddog@anothercubsblog.net) at Another Cubs Blog
... POST-SEASON ODDS REPORT (PECOTA VERSION) ...

Outs are fun!
Published 5/14/2008 by Andy (noreply@blogger.com) at Forest City Fanatics
... using performance so far. The odds go up to 54.8% for the division and 61% for the playoffs using PECOTA player projections. We're doing alright! Fans are still pretty nervous about the club's prospects, and I think it's because of the close games the Tribe plays and their pitching-first mentality. If they had the same run differential but had scored and yielded 50 more runs, people would be less concerned. I think it's easier to appreciate a team that wins 10-8 slugfests over one that wins 3-1 pitcher's duels. ...

Futures Watch: Week 7
Published 5/14/2008 by Vegas Watch (noreply@blogger.com) at Vegas Watch
This week: Oakland, 35:1 (5Dimes) Current Record: 23-17 PECOTA Playoff Odds: 34.3% Tampa Bay, 100:1 (Sportsbook) Current Record: 23-16 PECOTA: 46.3% If the season ended today...What, it doesn't? Can we change that rule? Please? Tampa's odds at different books have been quite strange. At Sportsbook, they're 100:1 to win it all, and 5:1 to win the division. At BetUS, they're 35:1 to win it all and, until a few hours ago, were 16:1 to win the East (it's been changed to 6:1). ...

Where we stand now
Published 5/19/2008 by Maddog (maddog@anothercubsblog.net) at Another Cubs Blog
... POST-SEASON ODDS REPORT (PECOTA VERSION) ...

Why Mayfield Is A Flaming Douche Bag: A 1,508th Look
Published 5/20/2008 by GA Hill (noreply@blogger.com) at Heavy Soul
... Not to mention if you look at Baseball Prospectus' PECTOA odds, you see the Cubs ending the season with a 95-67 record--better than their current .562 winning percentage. And your Astros, sitting at 76-86, good for 5th place in the Central. In fact, that would place the Cubs with the best NL record and only 2 games behind the Red Sox' best projected record in baseball. The Astros....well, not so much. ...

Futures Watch: Week 8
Published 5/21/2008 by Vegas Watch (noreply@blogger.com) at Vegas Watch
This week: Oakland, 50:1 (VIP) Current Record: 24-23 PECOTA Playoff Odds: 27.3% Tampa Bay, 35:1 (BetUS, 5Dimes) Current Record: 27-19 PECOTA: 49.4% Oakland beat the Rays today, which is not factored into any of the statistics above. Tampa's average weekly odds thus far this year: The first big shift comes directly after their six-game winning streak, which ended April 27. Their odds have been steadily descending since. They've now allowed 193 runs in 47 ...

Where we stand now
Published 5/27/2008 by Maddog (maddog@anothercubsblog.net) at Another Cubs Blog
... POST-SEASON ODDS REPORT (PECOTA VERSION) ...

Futures Watch: Week 9
Published 5/28/2008 by Vegas Watch (noreply@blogger.com) at Vegas Watch
This week: Oakland, 40:1 (5Dimes) Current Record: 29-23 PECOTA Playoff Odds: 32.5% (+5.2% since last week) Tampa Bay, 22:1 (5Dimes) Current Record: 31-21 PECOTA: 51.5% (+2.1%) Tampa won today. Oakland went 5-0 this week, significantly boosting their playoff chances. Interesting to note that PECOTA thinks there's an 81.6% chance that the wild card comes out of the East, so the A's are probably going to have to overtake the Angels to reach the postseason. The fun is over. The odds for ...

Marcus Thames and Playoff Odds
Published 5/31/2008 by Brian at TigerBlog
... .  Every morning, Clay Davenport runs a simulation of the season a million times to see where everyone ends up on average.  Right now, the Tigers stand just under a 10% chance of making the playoffs and they’re slotted at 77 average wins.  They do a lot better in the PECOTA adjusted report , which kind of accounts for the fact that everyone thought the Tigers should be good, so they have them finally living up to their true potential.  There, they still have a healthy 35% chance of making the playoffs with 85 average wins.  In both, the number of wins on average to win the ...

Note: Mets Post-Season Odds
Published 6/2/2008 by Mike Nichols at MetsBlog.com
... Using PECOTA projections, Baseball Prospectus latest post-season odds state the Mets have a 51% chance of winning the National League East and a 65% percent of making the playoffs. ...

Where we stand now
Published 6/3/2008 by Maddog (maddog@anothercubsblog.net) at Another Cubs Blog
... POST-SEASON ODDS REPORT (PECOTA VERSION) ...

Halos Win Third Straight….So Why am I Worried?
Published 6/3/2008 by Richard Nickerson at Big A Baseball

Futures Watch: Week 10
Published 6/5/2008 by Vegas Watch (noreply@blogger.com) at Vegas Watch
This week: Oakland, 35:1 (VIP) Current Record: 32-27 PECOTA Playoff Odds: 27.7% (-4.8% since last week) Tampa Bay, 17:1 (5Dimes) Current Record: 35-23 PECOTA: 54.9% (+3.4%) The A's completed a sweep of the Tigers this afternoon, while Tampa's road struggles continued in their loss to the Red Sox. The Rays placed Percival on the DL, and missed picking first in the draft while in first place by a day. Not much else to report that hasn't already been said; a win on ...

One Foot On The Bandwagon
Published 6/8/2008 by The Cheat at South Side Sox: Front Page Posts

Where we stand now
Published 6/10/2008 by Maddog (maddog@anothercubsblog.net) at Another Cubs Blog
... POST-SEASON ODDS REPORT (PECOTA VERSION) ...

Hands Down: Storm Clouds Edition
Published 6/11/2008 by Jessica Bader at Take the 7 Train
... based on how they’ve played so far. Even the PECOTA-adjusted version of the Postseason Odds Report isn’t giving us much more than a one-in-four chance. ...

Cubs to aggressively pursue Sabathia?
Published 6/11/2008 by Colin Wyers at GoatRiders of the Apocalypse -
... The Indians are a long shot to win the AL Central this year, with only a 13% chance right now according to BP's PECOTA-adjusted Odds Report. And the AL Wildcard looks to be even tougher to crack. If they continue to slip, dealing Sabathia may be appealing, especially with 2009 shaping up to be a shallow draft in the eyes of many - the Indians don't figure to resign the prospective free agent. ...

Futures Watch: Week 11
Published 6/12/2008 by Vegas Watch (noreply@blogger.com) at Vegas Watch
... up at the moment, so their odds won't be included this week. Last week: Milwaukee, 75:1 (VIP) 40:1 to win the NL (VIP) 12:1 to win the NL Central (Sportsbook) They are now 40:1 to win it all at VIP (45:1 at 5Dimes), and 20:1 to win the pennant. So that went pretty much as expected. This week: Oakland, 40:1 (Sportsbook) Current Record: 34-30 PECOTA Playoff Odds: 57.2% Tampa Bay, 17:1 (5Dimes) Current Record: 38-27 ...

Where we stand now
Published 6/16/2008 by Maddog (maddog@anothercubsblog.net) at Another Cubs Blog
... POST-SEASON ODDS REPORT (PECOTA VERSION) ...

Published 6/17/2008 by El Guapo's Ghost (noreply@blogger.com) at El Guapo's Ghost Rambles on about the Red Sox
... Of course, the Sox like everything is not perfect. But Theo is unlikely to pay the price to bolster the pen, solidify the rotation, or acquire a middle of the order bat when the Olde Towne Team has the highest A.L. shot (83% to ...

Futures Watch: Week 12
Published 6/19/2008 by Vegas Watch (noreply@blogger.com) at Vegas Watch
This week: Oakland, 35:1 (VIP) Current Record: 39-31 PECOTA Playoff Odds: 71.3% Tampa Bay, 16.5:1 (5Dimes) Current Record: 41-29 PECOTA: 70.2% The Rays beat the Cubs tonight. As I write this, the A's are down 8-0 in Arizona. I tried to come up with a pretty graph that shows the dramatic effect home-field has had on the AL East race. I failed, but am posting it anyway. The following graph is how many games each team is over .500 on each day of the season. The red line is ...

Where we stand now
Published 6/23/2008 by Maddog (maddog@anothercubsblog.net) at Another Cubs Blog
... POST-SEASON ODDS REPORT (PECOTA VERSION) ...

Ten Reasons Why It’s Still Good to Be a Mets Fan
Published 6/24/2008 by Jeff Mathews at Mets Geek
... I swear, it’s true. At least, according to Clay Davenport. After simulating the rest of the season a million times (adjusted for talent, as represented in their PECOTA projections) the boys at BP think the Mets make the playoffs four times out of ten, even after the crummy start. Those are much better odds than you thought, admit it. ...

Reevaluating The Tribe: Pitching
Published 6/24/2008 by Vegas Watch (noreply@blogger.com) at Vegas Watch
... Combining this with yesterday's post, we have the Indians scoring 4.76 R/G while allowing 4.74. In terms of Pythag, that's a .502 winning percentage, which is actually quite close to the .497 that the BP PECOTA Postseason Odds is using. In light of that, the Indians' chances of reaching the playoffs are probably around 8 or 9 percent. ...

Futures Watch: Week 13
Published 6/26/2008 by Vegas Watch (noreply@blogger.com) at Vegas Watch
This week: Oakland, 50:1 (Sportsbook) Current Record: 42-34 PECOTA Playoff Odds: 52.5% Tampa Bay, 16.5:1 (5Dimes) Current Record: 45-31 PECOTA: 76.8% After all this, you can still get pretty decent prices on these two teams. The Rays are +400 to win the East at Sportsbook, and PECOTA loves that Oakland WS line. The PECOTA percentages for the AL West are very strange. Even with the Angels having a five game led, the division is almost a toss-up, with the A's having a 45.8% chance of winning it. This is caused ...

What’s the Problem? A First Half Review
Published 6/27/2008 by Jessica Bader at Take the 7 Train
... of making the playoffs appear to be no higher than one in four , and just about every pundit who picked them as a World Series favorite in February is now blasting Omar Minaya for assembling an old, fragile roster. So, what went wrong? Did the flash and sparkle of the Santana trade blind us to the team’s flaws? Were our expectations too high, or are the Mets just underachieving? Why am I doing this analysis now, two and a half weeks before the All-Star Break and before the Mets have played even half of their schedule? Read on for some answers (or at least reasonable attempts ...

A Tampa Bay-Florida World Series? Don’t Laugh …
Published 6/27/2008 by TheBigLead at The Big Lead
... For the time being, let’s ignore the two teams’ respective rosters, and take a look at their mathematical playoff odds gathered by the indispensable Baseball Prospectus. According to BP, the Rays have about an 84% chance of making the playoffs, and the Marlins have a 6% chance. Building on this, let’s assume that as the Oakland general manager Billy Beane and Atlanta Braves manager Bobby Cox say, the playoffs are a crapshoot. That means each team playing in their own league (American or National), has a one in four chance of making the fall classic. Put that together, and it ...

149-102
Published 6/30/2008 by Vegas Watch (noreply@blogger.com) at Vegas Watch
... don't look at his clutch stats from last year; that was a fluke. Speaking of flukes, the Twins have gone on a nice little run here, winning 13 of 15. Which is great, until you realize they have a team OPS+ of 98, and ERA+ of 92. There are better, more thorough ways to make that point, but I think that sums it up pretty nicely. By the way, the Twins are currently -590 to not win the division at Matchbook, which is a pretty good price for a team that has a 6% chance of doing so. AL West Today-Wednesday; OAK @ LAA 7/11-7/13; ...

Where we stand now
Published 6/30/2008 by Maddog (maddog@anothercubsblog.net) at Another Cubs Blog
... POST-SEASON ODDS REPORT (PECOTA VERSION) ...

Futures Watch: Week 14
Published 7/2/2008 by Vegas Watch (noreply@blogger.com) at Vegas Watch
This week: Oakland, 40:1 (Sportsbook) Current Record: 45-38 PECOTA Playoff Odds: 49.6% Tampa Bay, 12:1 (BetUS) +220 to win the AL East (VIP) Current Record: 51-32 PECOTA: 92.1% The statistics above do not reflect today's events. Does this mean I'm going to have to do series previews every week? I hope not. The home team is now 12-0 in this year's Rays-Red Sox games. That is a nice little stat which will inevitably get blown out ...

Futures Watch: Week 14
Published 7/3/2008 by Vegas Watch (noreply@blogger.com) at Vegas Watch
This week: Oakland, 40:1 (Sportsbook) Current Record: 45-38 PECOTA Playoff Odds: 49.6% Tampa Bay, 12:1 (BetUS) +220 to win the AL East (VIP) Current Record: 51-32 PECOTA: 92.1% The statistics above do not reflect today's events. Does this mean I'm going to have to do series previews every week? I hope not. The home team is now 12-0 in this year's Rays-Red Sox games. That is a nice little stat which will inevitably get blown out ...

Is There Even a ‘Winner’ in the CC Sabathia Deal?
Published 7/7/2008 by TheBigLead at The Big Lead
... . And while it’s not unreasonable for the Indians to make a second half run into the postseason, it is extremely unlikely. Indians GM Mark Shapiro probably saw the choice of getting as big of a return as possible, rather than staying in the miracle business, and with the talent he’s been able to bring to the team since the beginning of his tenure in 1991, he’s earned that right. After all, even the 2007 New York Mets couldn’t blow a 14-game lead.* An interesting dynamic in the AL Central to keep your eyes on is that the more pieces the Indians trade this year to get better for ...

Chicago Cubs Trade Rumors: Sabathia Mania & the Cubs
Published 7/7/2008 by noreply@blogger.com (jumbo) at Towel Drills: A Chicago Cubs Blog
... What Sabathia does change in this equation, and what worries me the most, comes in the playoffs. A rotation of Sheets, Sabathia, and Manny Parra is pretty damn scary. I doubt anyone would want to face that. Being in the same division as the Cubs, we wouldn't meet the Brewers until a NLCS, but that currently seems like a very likely scenario (per BP's latest Postseason Odds Report, the Brewers are have a 44% chance of taking the wildcard while the Cubs are at 80% for winning the division). The Brewers, if anything, definitely made themselves better if they can get ...

Where we stand now
Published 7/8/2008 by Maddog (maddog@anothercubsblog.net) at Another Cubs Blog
... POST-SEASON ODDS REPORT (PECOTA VERSION) ...

A Peek at AL Postseason Odds
Published 7/10/2008 by Jimmy at The House That Dewey Built
... the shit out of me. Today’s off-day is going to feel like the Friday after Thanksgiving, our bodies sluggish after becoming engorged with slaughtered animal carcasses. (My apologies to our vegan readers. Substitute “carcasses” with “butter-nut squash” in that last analogy). After a sweep of the surprising Twins, let’s take a quick look at the current postseason odds, as seen by the two major sources for this type of projection. Baseball Prospectus: Tampa Bay: 91.72 % Boston: 86.11 % Chicago: 82.92 % Anaheim: ...

Futures Watch: Week 15
Published 7/10/2008 by Vegas Watch (noreply@blogger.com) at Vegas Watch
Oakland, 40:1 (Sportsbook) 7:1 to win the AL West (VIP) Current Record: 49-42 PECOTA Playoff Odds: 39.6% Tampa Bay, 9:1 (BetUS) Current Record: 55-35 PECOTA: 91.7% I do not think Billy Beane had this blog in mind when making the Rich Harden trade. I'm not sure what I ever did to him; I've read his book at least twice.After a shocking double by Willie Bloomquist broke the streak and extended Seattle's lead to 2-0, Oakland staged ...

All-Star '08: The Final Recall
Published 7/11/2008 by Vegas Watch (noreply@blogger.com) at Vegas Watch
... Cristian Guzman, WAS: 15:7 GIDP:BB ratio, which is not good. 3/6 in SB attempts. Team is rapidly approaching having a 0% chance of reaching postseason. ...

State of the Cubs (6/30 - 7/13)
Published 7/14/2008 by BellwetherMeltdown (jczahor@gmail.com) at Another Cubs Blog
... breaking a sweat. These past two weeks we haven’t seen that kind of dominance, and we probably shouldn’t expect to, instead these two weeks have been a pretty accurate microcosm of what this team really is, a ballclub not without it’s blemishes, but capable of winning every time out, and one that is very very capable of winning the World Series with a little bit of luck at the right times. 57-38 at the All Star Break PECOTA expected record 97-65 PECOTA playoff odds 94% “State of the Cubs” archives can be found ...

Where we stand now
Published 7/17/2008 by Maddog (maddog@anothercubsblog.net) at Another Cubs Blog
... POST-SEASON ODDS REPORT (PECOTA VERSION) ...

Justin Verlander Shines In Split With Orioles
Published 7/21/2008 by Brian at TigerBlog
... drew three walks.  Ramon Santiago continues to impress and he went two for four to bring his season batting average up to .358. Of course there was the disappointing loss Saturday night.  Yes, the Tigers got hosed on that play at the plate but it should have never gotten to that point.  A six run lead, when you’re fighting for your playoff life, is something you shouldn’t give up. Speaking of playoffs, the Tigers sit 6 1/2 back. Doesn’t sound like much until you do the math.  Baseball Prospectus thinks it’ll take 91 wins to win the American League Central and that the White ...

Wolf to the Astros
Published 7/22/2008 by MB at Friar Forecast
... Like the rest of the baseball blogosphere, I don’t know what the hell the Astros are doing. BP’s PECOTA playoffs odds give them just about no chance of making the playoffs. If I counted correctly, they are behind like seven teams for the wild card slot, and they are 12 games behind the Cubs in the Central. ...

Is This Academic Masturbation or What?
Published 7/23/2008 by Hef at Major League Jerk
... team in the past few years without successfully predicting all of the teams.  And if that’s the case then aren’t they then worthless? Here’s a quick sampling: Basic Playoff Odds Report: Rays 84.0% Red Sox 82.7% Phillies 44.0% Mets 59.4% Dbacks 45.6% Dodgers 49.9% ELO Version: Rays 59.2% Red Sox 73.6% Phillies 50.7% Mets 51.8% Dbacks 39.7% Dodgers 54.2% PECOTA Version: Rays 83.8% Red Sox 83.3% Phillies 42.55% Mets ...

Futures Watch: Week 17
Published 7/24/2008 by Vegas Watch (noreply@blogger.com) at Vegas Watch
Oakland, 100:1 (VIP, Matchbook) Current Record: 52-48 PECOTA Playoff Odds: 18.4% Tampa Bay, 11.5:1 (5Dimes) Current Record: 58-41 PECOTA: 78.6%Tampa beat Oakland today, 4-3. I think it's time to stop including Oakland every week. PECOTA still thinks they have a shot, but that's not particularly meaningful at this point. Not only have they traded away 2/5 of their rotation, but PECOTA was seemingly overrating their chances to begin with. The A's are available at 18-1 to win the division at Matchbook right ...

Reason to stay optimistic that September 21 won't be the last game in Yankee Stadium history
Published 7/25/2008 by Ross (noreply@blogger.com) at Yankee Stadium Insider Blog
... (higher when adjusting to PECOTA) now. Before the All-Star break, that number was in single digits. Hopefully this analysis will cause ...

Maybe the Cards should be sellers
Published 7/28/2008 by erik at Future Redbirds
... (record adjusted by equivalent runs/equivalent runs allowed;strength of schedule also factored) is actually 52-54. PECOTA has the Cards pegged to finish the season 85-77, 7 games behind the Brewers and 9 games behind the Cubs. ...

Futures Watch: Week 19
Published 30 days ago by Vegas Watch (noreply@blogger.com) at Vegas Watch
Tampa Bay, 8:1 (BetUS) +120 to win the AL East (BetUS) Current Record: 68-45 PECOTA Playoff Odds: 91.8% The Rays have been fantastic since the break, winning 13 of 19 and seven of their last eight. Most of that success has come at home, but it also includes a 4-3 road trip. They're not yet back to where they were on July 8 (96.5%), but they've really improved their chances over the last three weeks. Despite the hot streak, they do have some issues at the moment. Crawford has a sore left hamstring, and hasn't played since Sunday. ...

Speaking of the Yankees' playoff chances...
Published 26 days ago by Ross (noreply@blogger.com) at Yankee Stadium Insider Blog
... Unfortunately, everything that could have gone wrong for the Yankees this season has gone wrong. The Yankees chances of making the playoffs currently stand between 8 and 10 percent (depending on if you adjust the playoff odds report to PECOTA projections or not). Any way you look at it, the likelihood of the team making the playoffs is getting smaller every day. It obviously isn't even close to impossible, but with every 3 game sweep, the odds move from unlikely to "its going to take a miracle". ...

Futures Watch: Week 20
Published 23 days ago by Vegas Watch (noreply@blogger.com) at Vegas Watch
Tampa Bay, 7.75:1 (5Dimes) Current Record: 71-47 PECOTA Playoff Odds: 94.7%The Yankees' struggles have caused the Rays' playoff odds to increase a few percentage points over the last week, but the last few days haven't been kind to Tampa. Losing Crawford wasn't the end of the world, but Longoria hitting the DL really hurts. Their lineup wasn't great to begin with, and now they've got a 5-6 combo of Willy Aybar and Justin Ruggiano. Their defense is also dramatically worse now, as Crawford and Longoria are two of their best ...

Remaining Strength of Schedule
Published 19 days ago by Vegas Watch (noreply@blogger.com) at Vegas Watch
... Including Toronto on this list of "playoff contenders" is probably a bit of a stretch, although they do still have a chance. But I couldn't resist, because their schedule is just insanely difficult. Their next eight series are: vsNYY, vsBOS, @TB, @NYY, vsMIN, vsTB, @CHW, @BOS. Pretty unbelievable. ...

Random Notes on a Scorecard Texted from Press Row to a Blog Post
Published 18 days ago by Steve Sax (noreply@blogger.com) at Sons of Steve Garvey
... And our current position, tied for first in the standings with the Diamondbacks, apparently gives us a slight two-percentage-point edge to win the NL West and make the playoffs. Wow. This is going to be exciting. ...

Could the Cubs win 100?
Published 18 days ago by Colin Wyers at GoatRiders of the Apocalypse -
... I took win percentages from Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA odds report, which is a more complex and accurate version of this. (It regresses a team’s record based on their PECOTA projections, and it uses the Pythagorean win expectation using a strength of schedule adjustment.) Home field advantage was .040, which is probably a little low for this year but it’s applied consistently. (If you have your own notions of home field advantage, fell free to play around with the spreadsheet.) Then I used Bill James’ ...

Futures Watch: Week 21
Published 17 days ago by Vegas Watch (noreply@blogger.com) at Vegas Watch
Tampa Bay, 8:1 (5Dimes) Current Record: 77-48 PECOTA Playoff Odds: 97.7% 77-49 after tonight; pretty frustrating lost. Boston lost as well, so the lead is stays at 4.5, and the playoff odds won't change too much, even with the Yankees winning. Ned Yost's decision to bring CC Sabathia back out for the ninth, after having already thrown 111 pitches in a 9-2 game the other night has gotten a lot of attention, but Joe Maddon actually made a much more questionable move on Friday. After 8.5 innings, the Rays led 7-0, and ...

The Astros' Playoff Picture
Published 12 days ago by DyingQuail at The Crawfish Boxes: Front Page Posts
... NL Wild Card Playoffs BPro Playoff Odds .0015% .0884% .0899% BPro PECOTA Adjusted Odds .00062% .06954% .07016% ...

AL Postseason Odds Revisited
Published 12 days ago by Jimmy at The House That Dewey Built
As of August 24th, here are the updated postseason odds as calculated by two of the leading sources: Coolstandings.com Angels 99.9% Rays 95.4% Red Sox 75% Twins 61.6% White Sox 58.7% Yankees 7.3% Baseball Prospectus Angels 99.9% Rays 97.7% Red Sox 86.0% White Sox 70.4% Twins 40.2% Yankees 5.0% As I described before, the difference in odds between the two sources is mostly due to Baseball Prospectus’ ...

The Dose: Finding things to freak out about
Published 9 days ago by Andy Dolan at desipio.com
... the rest of the way, St. Louis would have to go 23-5 to tie for the wildcard with the Cubs, assuming Milwaukee passed the Cubs for the division. The Cubs lead the National League in runs scored and are tied with the Dodgers for fewest allowed.  Their absurd run differential of +190 is the biggest in the majors by more than 65 runs.  I have gone on and on, and I could go on and on for a lot longer. So consider this.  Baseball Prospectus calculates the percentage that the Cubs will make the playoffs at 99.64%. Only the Anaheim Angels have a ...

This Week's Links (9/1-9/5)
Published 43 hours ago by Vegas Watch (noreply@blogger.com) at Vegas Watch
"College Basketball Prospectus 2008-2009: The Essential Guide to the Men's College Basketball Season; by Ken Pomeroy and John Gasaway". Available October 28. Awesome. The Angels have reached 100%. Without rounding. Sizemore and Pujols are each way ahead of the pack in their respective MVP races. Cliff Lee's secret for success: sleep in. He is really going to have "Ocho Cinco" on the back of his jersey. Ned Yost is not concerned about Manny Parra's increased innings workload. ...

The Astros Playoff Chances: 12 Days Later
Published 33 hours ago by DyingQuail at The Crawfish Boxes: Front Page Posts
... NL Wild Card Playoffs BPro Playoff Odds .0015% .0884% .0899% BPro PECOTA Adjusted Odds .00062% .06954% .07016% ...

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