Probabilistic Model of Range, Centerfielders, 2007

Links (24)

A fielding stat against Melky
Published 11/11/2007 by Joseph P. at River Ave. Blues
... Let’s be clear: I’m not trying to bury Melky Cabrera. I simply think he’s vastly overrated (and, incidentally, think that if any GM overrates him so, we should see what we can get for him). His arm is valuable in center, but as I’ve continually noted, he often takes poor routes to balls, resulting in him making fewer plays than he should given his range. Dave Pinto’s Probabilistic Model of Range agrees with me. It actually rates Melky below Johnny Damon in center. ...

Baseball Musings: Pinto: Probabilistic Model of Range, 2007, CF
Published 11/12/2007 at BBTF's Baseball Primer Newsblog
... —The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand Monday, November 12, 2007 Baseball Musings: Pinto: Probabilistic Model of Range, 2007, CF PMR data for 07 CFers is up. Did Corey Patterson play hurt this year? ...

Coco Crisp Wuz Robbed
Published 11/12/2007 at Center Field
Baseball Musings ran the defensive numbers on the Probabilistic Model of Range* for all centerfielders over the 2007 season, breaking them out by individual and by team. And surprise, surprise- look what he found: ...

Tigers close to acquiring Jacque Jones
Published 11/12/2007 by billfer at The Detroit Tiger Weblog
... Whether it was a one year fluke (it was by far the lowest slugging of his career) or him collapsing remains to be seen. Still, he’s only owed one year and $5.5 million so even if he is awful it won’t hurt the team financially.  It’s only a problem if he’s awful and continues to garner playing time (like that’s never happened before). Defensively he played a couple outfield positions for the Cubs and rated well at least in terms of PMR. Tigers near deal for Cubs OF Jones Share This ...

Around the horn: Can Mozeliak emulate Ed Wade?
Published 11/12/2007 by Pip at Fungoes
... ). It’s a moot point regarding Isringhausen, since he has no-trade power (and we’re pretty sure he’s not interested in Philly, which, had it been around in Dante’s time, might’ve been one of his rings of hell for athletes). But take Izzy as a hypothetical: The Cardinals would’ve been freeing up $8.75 million in salary while getting a 2008-ready player who can spell Edmonds (or, with his defense, even push Edmonds to a corner spot, though JEd still plays a pretty good CF) and play in a corner outfield position. Bourn’s PECOTA-projected ...

PMR RUN CONVERSIONS, CENTER FIELDERS
Published 11/12/2007 by The Chronicler at Chronicles of the Lads
As I mentioned in the shortstop entry, please use caution in comparing these to anything before 2005; I'm not actually sure when David added "distance" as a parameter for outfielders, so perhaps even 2006 is the only year one can really use as a comparison. For center fielders: Player Runs Runs/395 Coco Crisp 22.2 23.2 Ichiro Suzuki 21.3 21.4 Curtis Granderson 15.7 15.5 Andruw Jones 7.7 7.9 Juan Pierre 6.9 7.6 Carlos Beltran 5.9 6.1 Jacque Jones ...

PMR For Centerfielders, Second Basemen
Published 11/12/2007 by Rob at 6-4-2 — an Angels/Dodgers double play blog
David Pinto has continued his annual series of probabilistic model of range (PMR) statistics position-by-position, and today looks at centerfielders, which the ...

Gold Glove travesty
Published 11/12/2007 by NDub at Construda
... obviously help but so do statistics. And the voting injustice Granderson suffered was worse than George W. Bush winning Florida in 2000 (OK, so not that bad but fuck off). Dreamy (and possibly gay) Grady Sizemore and Torii "Getting by on my name" Hunter beat out Granderson and Boston Red Sox centerfielder Coco Crisp. Ichiro Suzuki was the lone deserving outfielder voted to win a Gold Glove. Baseball Musings ran the Probabilistic Model of Rang e for centerfielders in 2007 and guess what they found... 1. Coco Crisp 2. Ichiro Suzuki 3. Felix Pie (NL, barely qualified) 4. Curtis ...

Probabilistic Model of Range and Center Field Defense
Published 11/12/2007 by Adam J. Morris <info@lonestarball.com> at Lone Star Ball: Front Page Posts
David Pinto has the 2007 figures for his Probabilistic Model of Range up for centerfielders. What is PMR? Pinto explains, in a 2005 post: So balls in play are lumped into different categories, and each category of BIP has, across major league baseball, an expected probability of being turned into an out. By comparing the BIPs for each player, and the probability of each BIP becoming an out, to the actual number of plays a player makes, one can evaluate whether a player is making as many plays as he'd be expected to make, which allows for an evaluation of his ...

The 2008 Free Agent Class Is Going to Cripple Teams for Years to Come
Published 11/13/2007 by Pat Lackey at FanHouse
... ? Teams are going to break the bank for these guys? Right now we're probably talking $80 million or more for Rowand and probably nine figures for Hunter. They're both nice players and all, but pardon me while I scoff at this insanity. Hunter's only slugged better than .500 twice and he's never had an OBP above .340. Rowand has managed two above average seasons at the plate in his four full years. Both are allegedly good defenders, but David Pinto places them both at the middle of the pack with his probabilistic model of range. Hunter is 31, Rowand is 30. Neither is on the ...

We prefer world championships, anyway
Published 11/13/2007 by Dan Lamothe, Red Sox Monster at Red Sox Monster - MassLive.com
... Beckett was second with eight first-place votes and 86 points, while John Lackey of the Los Angeles Angels got the other first-place vote and came in third. Sabathia went 19-7 with a 3.21 ERA and 209 strikeouts, pitching a major league-high 241 innings. Beckett (20-7) became the only big league pitcher to win 20 games since 2005, compiling a 3.27 ERA in 200 2-3 innings. Lackey led the AL in ERA at 3.01, going 19-9 and tossing 224 innings. So, for the record, Sabathia beat Beckett and Coco Crisp was robbed of a Gold Glove in favor of Grady Sizemore. Which is fine, I suppose. ...

The Consolation Prize
Published 11/14/2007 by Chris Needham at Capitol Punishment
... were basically dead-on average. Belliard was in the upper tier, with 4% more plays than expected, but Lopez dragged it down, below average but not near the worst, with about 4% fewer plays than expected. Nats CFers were middle of the pack, too. It loves Ryan Church (+3%) and thinks that Logan is pretty good (+1%). Something seems funky about both those numbers, especially with what I've seen from some of the other defensive stats. As you'd expect, ...

Why do I have to still read crap like this?
Published 11/14/2007 by Pat at Where have you gone, Andy Van Slyke?
... So here's my problem: we all knew that Pirates.com was a mouthpiece for Littlefield and McClatchy. Why are they still pumping out stories that would make Dave Littlefield smile? Now that he's gone and Doogie is GM, shouldn't I at least be reading about how Morgan's UZR or PMR (I wish he had played enough to make David Pinto's list, I'm always curious to see how we grade out there and will likely post about it later) could make him worth playing, even though he's likely going to be a stiff at the plate?

[THE HANGOVER] There Are No Carl Crawford Rumors To Deny
Published 11/14/2007 by The Professor at Rays Index
... The number must be taken with a grain of salt. When we look at Range Factor, BJ Upton was above the league average of 2.71 with a 2.91. On the other hand, Elijah Dukes and Delmon Young, who had the next two most innings played in center field were both well below the league average with a 2.30, which likely brought the Rays overall Range value down. Rocco Baldelli only played 20 games in center, but came in with a 3.61 range factor. [Baseball Musings] ...

Coco Crisp to the Cubs? Brewers Lose Big
Published 11/24/2007 at The View From The Bleachers
... , first in David Pinto's Probabilistic Model of Range for centerfielders, first in Range Factor, and third in Zone Rating. He can also steal bases, averaging 25 over the past six seasons, which would add the speed that Lou Piniella is craving this offseason. At the same time, would Crisp really provide more in center with the bat than either ...

Keep the Phone Lines Open
Published 11/28/2007 by jscape2000 <info@pinstripealley.com> at Pinstripe Alley: Front Page Posts
... another year at league minimum before arbitration begins. Or, at least, that's the logic I keep trying to use on myself. But you have to give value to get value, and in a market when Andruw Jones figures to bring in an 8 figure multi-year deal, Melky Cabrera has value. If Melky can't bring back something of use to the Yankees, perhaps he could bring back a couple of players the Twins or A's would like to have. It's worth pointing out that, if he comes to camp healthy, Damon is better at tracking fly balls . I'm not as opposed as some to seeing him back in center. Another ...

Ben Sheets? Red Sox? Can something/nothing happen please?
Published 12/3/2007 by Allen Chace <info@overthemonster.com> at Over the Monster: Front Page Posts
... What say you? Interested? Not? I could see this being the kind of deal Coco would be involved in, especially considering the issues this guy had last season both offensively and defensively. What else might be required? No f'in clue. Obviously, there's the easily voiced reservations about injury history, etc. And he did post a 1.238 WHIP in the NL Central. Also, that Hank Steinbrenner is hilarious, no? Oh. And, during the day today, try to find a Yankee fan who's obsessed with the idea that Beckett will be pushing like mad to re-negotiate ...

On Milledge, And That Which We Don't Understand
Published 12/5/2007 by Eric Simon <amazinavenue@gmail.com> at Amazin' Avenue: Front Page Posts
... , was very good last year. His defense in center was similarly good. Assuming he doesn't get spun off to another team in a different trade, Church is likely pegged to play right field at Shea in 2008. ...

Giants Sign Rowand for 5 Years, $60M
Published 12/13/2007 by obsessivegiantscompulsive at obsessivegiantscompulsive
... He is also the CF that the Giants have been searching for, in terms of defense. He is a gold glove CF, though his PMR rating is only average for the past two seasons, slightly above in 2006, slightly below in 2007. That appears to be confirmed per his defensive stats on ...

Is Werth Right?
Published 12/19/2007 by Mike at A CITIZEN'S BLOG
... , with a 114.32 ratio ... What is PMR, you might ask? I was afraid you would. Basically it takes a model of outs a player should have made, vs. what they really did. The difference between them is divided so that a score above 100 means they did better than expected, while a score below 100 means they did worse. Werth's 114.32 was by far the best in the major leagues. Victorino's 108.72 was second. Rowand had a 99.27. ...

Much ado about Melky
Published 1/16/2008 by Joseph P. at River Ave. Blues
... Melky ranked in the lower half of the league as a center fielder in Dave Pinto’s PMR. Now, this isn’t exact, nor is it all-telling. But it’s one measure that shows him getting to fewer balls, on average, than his peers. Even ...

Saber Bomb: Mike Cameron Will Help the Brewers in 2008
Published 1/17/2008 by Pat Lackey at FanHouse
... at third base. Left field is a full two spots up on the defensive spectrum and is the easiest position to field other than first base, so moving him there can only do him and the team good. Next up, we can compare Hall and Cameron in center. Neither qualifies for James's +/- ratings (in his book he only rates the top and bottom few players in the league), but we can still use PMR and FRAA. By BP's stat, Cameron was one run below average in center last year and by Pinto's measurement, he was slightly above average. Hall, on the other hand, was rated by BP ...

Third Baseball Blog Blast
Published 1/24/2008 by davidbloom at BaseballHappenings.com
... 2007 Team PMR 2007 P PMR 2007 C PMR 2007 1B PMR 2007 2B PMR 2007 3B PMR 2007 SS PMR 2007 CF PMR 2007 RF PMR 2007 LF PMR ...

Josh Hamilton’s Wonderful Comeback
Published 2/1/2008 by davidbloom at BaseballHappenings.com
... 0.001, Rowland 0.050 , Beltran -0.025) RC: 58.1 (Sizemore 122.4, Rowland 111.9 , Beltran 107.1) VORP: 26.4 (Sizemore 53.8, Rowland 52.0 , Beltran 51.1) GroundBalls:107 (Sizemore 155, Rowland 214 , Beltran 173) Fly Balls:77 (Sizemore 204, Rowland 177 , Beltran 187) G/F: 1.39 (Sizemore 0.76, Rowland 1.21 , Beltran 0.93) Win Shares : 13 (Sizemore 31, Rowland 23 , Beltran 27) PMR(defense) : 102.62 (Sizemore 97.93, Rowland 99.27 , Beltran 102.13) Now, fast ...