Email Story
Reviewing the NBA Blog Previews
Jason posted 4/20/2007 from ballhype.com
Last October, Jeff from CelticsBlog coordinated a team-by-team look at the 2006-07 season that featured dozens of NBA bloggers. Naturally, there was more than enough optimism to go around in the preseason. And inevitably, the ensuing season brought disappointment for many fans.
On Jeff's suggestion, I put together a table that compares the preview predictions to the each teams actual win total on the year. It's sortable—you can toggle the sort and direction by clicking the column headings.
| Team | Preview | Predicted Wins | Actual Wins | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76ers | Passon & Pride | 47 | 35 | -12 |
| Blazers | TrueHoop | - | 32 | - |
| Bobcats | Bobcat Bonfire | 42 | 33 | -9 |
| Bucks | 5-Point Bucks | 44 | 28 | -16 |
| Bulls | Blog-a-Bull | 55 | 49 | -6 |
| Cavaliers | YAYsports! NBA | 58 | 50 | -8 |
| Celtics | LOY's PLACE | 40 | 24 | -16 |
| Celtics | CelticsBlog.com | 42 | 24 | -18 |
| Celtics | Celticsstuff Live | 48 | 24 | -24 |
| Clippers | ClipsNation | 52 | 40 | -12 |
| Grizzlies | Beale Street Beat | 45 | 22 | -23 |
| Hawks | Impending Firestorm | 37 | 30 | -7 |
| Heat | Crazy From the Heat | 54 | 44 | -10 |
| Hornets | Hornets 24/7 | 48 | 39 | -9 |
| Jazz | lowpost.net/blog | 43 | 51 | 8 |
| Kings | Sactown Royalty | 50 | 33 | -17 |
| Knicks | Bench Renaldo | 41 | 33 | -8 |
| Lakers | Showtime | 44.5 | 42 | -2.5 |
| Lakers | Jones on the NBA | 48 | 42 | -6 |
| Lakers | Forum Blue & Gold | 49 | 42 | -7 |
| Magic | Believing in Magic | 45 | 40 | -5 |
| Mavericks | Mavs Moneyball | 59 | 67 | 8 |
| Nets | NetsDaily Blog | 51 | 41 | -10 |
| Nuggets | The Nugg Doctor | 51 | 45 | -6 |
| Pacers | Donning Craig Sager's Suit | 43 | 35 | -8 |
| Pistons | Detroit Bad Boys | 55 | 53 | -2 |
| Pistons | Need4Sheed | 57 | 53 | -4 |
| Raptors | HoopsAddict.com | 42 | 47 | 5 |
| Rockets | Rockets Blast | 57 | 52 | -5 |
| Sonics | SonicsCentral.com | 45 | 31 | -14 |
| Spurs | Pounding the Rock | 58 | 58 | 0 |
| Suns | Phoenix Suns Rising, Suns Gossip | 60 | 61 | 1 |
| Timberwolves | I Heart KG | 42 | 32 | -10 |
| Warriors | lowpost.net/blog | 35 | 42 | 7 |
| Warriors | Golden State of Mind | 41 | 42 | 1 |
| Wizards | Bullets Fever | 50 | 41 | -9 |
Highest on the disappointment meter (try sorting by the Difference column) are the teams with the two worst records in the league—Boston and Memphis. The Kings had the next largest negative differential, which helps to explain why Eric Musselman is apparently out after just one season.
Most accurate predictions included:
- Pounding the Rock nailing the Spurs win total of 58.
- Phoenix Suns Rising & Suns Gossip missing the Suns total by 1.
- Golden State of Mind for nearly hitting the Warriors win total as well as predicting (or hoping) that the W's would "[trade] for some shooters and an athletic 4 or 5 near the February trade deadline."
Before the season began, I compared the blogger predictions to Vegas odds at the time, so to finish the story, here are their results:
| Team | Oddsmakers Wins | Actual Wins | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 76ers | 34 | 35 | 1 |
| Blazers | 24.5 | 32 | 7.5 |
| Bobcats | 33 | 33 | 0 |
| Bucks | 38.5 | 28 | -10.5 |
| Bulls | 49.5 | 49 | -0.5 |
| Cavaliers | 49.5 | 50 | 0.5 |
| Celtics | 36.5 | 24 | -12.5 |
| Clippers | 47 | 40 | -7 |
| Grizzlies | 38.5 | 22 | -16.5 |
| Hawks | 28.5 | 30 | 1.5 |
| Heat | 51 | 44 | -7 |
| Hornets | 40 | 39 | -1 |
| Jazz | 41.5 | 51 | 9.5 |
| Kings | 42 | 33 | -9 |
| Knicks | 31 | 33 | 2 |
| Lakers | 42 | 42 | 0 |
| Magic | 39.5 | 40 | 0.5 |
| Mavericks | 56 | 67 | 11 |
| Nets | 46.5 | 41 | -5.5 |
| Nuggets | 42.5 | 45 | 2.5 |
| Pacers | 43.5 | 35 | -8.5 |
| Pistons | 50.5 | 53 | 2.5 |
| Raptors | 34.5 | 47 | 12.5 |
| Rockets | 47 | 52 | 5 |
| Sonics | 34 | 31 | -3 |
| Spurs | 56 | 58 | 2 |
| Suns | 55.5 | 61 | 5.5 |
| Timberwolves | 36 | 32 | -4 |
| Warriors | 37 | 42 | 5 |
| Wizards | 40 | 41 | 1 |
With money on the line and allegiances out the window, the oddsmakers obviously fared much better. They were within 3 wins of the actual total for nearly half the league, and they pretty much nailed the Bulls, Bobcats, Lakers, Cavaliers, and Magic. But was there an East coast bias? After the Raptors, the 6 most underestimated teams all came from the Western Conference.
To see what fans are predicting for the playoffs, don't forget to check out the master bracket from the Ballhype playoffs pick'em contest.
