• CSDutton33

  +1

  FYI - password to unprotect the worksheet is "tuftsbat"

  Posted 7/10/2009 respond (flag)

Daily Box Score 7/10: Prospects, Sportswriters, and the Rule Book
Beyond the Box Score — ... Finally, do you like spreadsheets? Do you like fantasy baseball? Of course you do, you're reading Beyond the Box Score. Well, I'm sorry to do this to you, but I have to help Derek Carty steal several hours of your afternoon. He's got the xBABIP calculator to beat all xBABIP calculators.  ...

xBABIP Calculator
Driveline Mechanics — xBABIP Calculator Very cool.

Simple xBABIP Calculator
Rotodatabase.com blogs — ... THT Fantasy  read more »

What will the Rockies do with Carlos Gonzalez?
Colorado Rockies — ... It's hard to tell what's going on here.  Gonzalez may be trying to do too much to justify his inclusion on the team; that could explain the strikeouts.  Or, it's just possible that he's getting unlucky.  Gonzalez is hitting line drives -- 25.9 percent of his balls in play have been line drives -- which should translate to a good batting average.  But his BABIP is just .276; Chris Dutton's expected BABIP calculator says that Carlos's BABIP should be around .349. ...

Adjusting the Marlins with xBABIP
Marlin Maniac | A Florida Marlins Blog — ... Recently, the guys at The Hardball Times released a simple xBABIP calculator that could be used to predict BABIP based on batted ball data. Thinking that some Marlins hitters may be overvalued/undervalued, I converted each of the starters’ batted ball profiles into an xBABIP and compared them to both their current BABIP and their ZiPS updated projected end BABIP. Here’s your tally: ...

Yet another take on Wright's BABIP
Amazin' Avenue — ... The basic results of that study are that xBABIP is a much better estimator that ldBABIP (LD% + .120). In fact, the R-Squared on xBABIP was 0.25, but 0.04(!) on ldBABIP. qxBABIP, the quick and dirty version of xBABIP is also a much better estimator than ldBABIP. Since the study was conducted in January, the folks at the HBT have further tuned and made available a spreadsheet to calculate a simple xBABIP. ...

Placido’s Quiet Lumber
FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball — ... . Derek Carty of THT developed a BABIP calculator, based on the great work that former Rotographs writer Peter Bendix (along with Chris Dutton) ...

While You Were Out: Amazin' Avenue Week In Review (7/12-7/18)
Amazin' Avenue — ... profile the lanky Le Moyne product. Looking For The Next Jeff Francoeur - Sam searches for other young players with promise who have struggled. Blogger Smackdown: Martin Gandy Of Talking Chop - Eric talks Braves with the head honcho at TC. Mid-Season Filler: The Mets' Most Recent Trade With Each Team - The title is self-explanatory. Yet Another Take On Wright's BABIP - Newcomer mnbv uses the xBABIP calculator from THT to expand on the mainstream media's new favorite topic. A Guest ...

Prado Producing in Atlanta
FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball — ... Is Prado this good of a hitter? In all likelihood, he’s performing at the uppermost bounds of his capabilities right now. His BABIP has been in excess of .350 over the 2008-2009 seasons, which seems likely to regress at least somewhat. Using the Expected BABIP Calculator from The Hardball Times (discussed in more detail in ...

Incredible Oscillating BABIPs
FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball — ... , so it’s not suprising that Derek Carty’s July 10th release of a simple expected BABIP calculator flew under the radar a bit. It shouldn’t have. The calculator allows us fantasy types to say with a little more certainty what sort of BABIP a particular player should expect. ...

Stock Watch: 8/23
FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball — ... Soriano’s sordid 2009 season has contributed to the mess as well. After posting wOBA’s of .380 and .374 during his first two seasons with the Cubs, Soriano has fallen off a cliff to .313 this year. Some of that dip might be poor luck on balls put in play- Soriano’s BABIP is .278, and according to this expected BABIP calculator, Alfonso’s BABIP “should” be around .305. ...

Morales Mashing in L.A.
FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball — ... Has Morales been lucky on balls put in play? Not especially, according to Derek Carty’s simple expected batting average on balls in play calculator, which uses AB, HR, K’s, SB’s, grounders, fly balls and pop outs in addition to line drive percentage to spit out an XBABIP. Morales’ actual BABIP is .325, and his XBABIP is .317. ...

Geovany Soto’s Sophomore Jinx
FanGraphs Baseball — ... Playing around with THT’s xBABIP calculator, Soto’s expected BABIP is .314. His actual BABIP: .245. Last year Soto was playing a bit over his head. This year he appears to be suffering some sort of horrid luck that Billy Sianis wouldn’t wish upon his worst enemy. ...

Stock Watch: 9/7
FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball — ... Grady walked 12.1% of the time, punching out 21.1% and posting a near-.200 ISO (.197). According to this Expected BABIP tool from The Hardball Times, Sizemore was pretty unlucky this year. His BABIP was just .276, yet his XBABIP (which uses HR, SB, groundballs, fly balls and pop ups in addition to line drive rate) was .309. ...

Trenton Thunder Season Awards
Pending Pinstripes — ... I plugged Nunez's line into Chris Dutton's xBABIP tool, and got an expected batting average on balls in play of exactly .300. After neutralizing Nunez's BABIP to .300, his batting line is a meager .275/.302/.385--one that would be drawing no attention. ...

Stock Watch: 9/15
FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball — ... The answer appears to be a bit of both. Punching Alex’s homers, K’s, stolen bases, line drives flyballs, pop ups and grounders into this expected BABIP calculator, we find that Rios’ BABIP “should” be around .306, instead of his actual mark of .274. ...

The Taming of the Drew?
AZ Snakepit — ... for an explanation of xBABIP, an enhanced version of BABIP, which includes these extra variables. There's also an Excel spreadsheet xBABIP calculator available from them. ...

What’s With B.J. Upton?
FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball — ... Overall, Upton has been somewhat unlucky this season. Using this expected BABIP tool from The Hardball Times (which takes a hitter’s AB’s, HR, K’s, SB, LD%, fly balls, pop ups and grounders to give a more accurate measure of XBABIP), B.J.’s XBABIP is .331, compared to his actual .304 mark. Even if all of those extra hits were singles, that would bring his line up from .231/.301/.359 to .258/.328/.386. ...

Astros batters: Do you feel lucky?
The Crawfish Boxes — ... .  The spreadsheet and quick tool for applying their model to a given player was later provided here.  Their "model" uses the following independent variables to predict a player's expected BABIP: at bats, home ballpark, HRs, strike outs, stolen bases (proxy for speed), line drive percentage, flyballs, groundballs, and pop ups.  A player with an actual BABIP higher than his predicted BABIP can be called "lucky," and vice versa for "unlucky."  I used this tool to find expected BABIP for Astros' starting batters based on performance so far this season.  The ...

Stock Watch: 9/22
FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball — ... Lopez has been fortunate, with a .364 BABIP this year. According to this expected BABIP calculator, the switch-hitter should have a BABIP around .333. That would make his .312/.382/.433 line something closer to .281/.351/.402. That still equates to a wOBA of about .345, besting his work during a nomadic stretch that saw Lopez roam through Cincinnati, Washington and St. Louis. Lopez’s walk rate this season is up to 10.1% (8.1 and 8.2% in ‘07 and ‘08). ...

Granderson’s Just Fine
FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball — ... Luckily, Derek Carty of The Hardball Times came out with a simple XBABIP tool based on Dutton and Bendix’s work. The tool takes a hitter’s AB’s, HR’s, K’s, SB’s, LD%, flyballs, pop ups and grounders and spits out an expected BABIP. ...

Swisher’s Resurgence
FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball — ... There are slight changes, but certainly nothing earth-shattering. Yet, Swisher’s BABIP plummeted from .308 in ‘07 to .251 in ‘08. According to this expected BABIP tool from The Hardball Times (based off ...

Soriano’s Slowing Lumber
FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball — ... He might have been a little unlucky on balls put in play. Soriano’s BABIP was .280, compared to his .309 career average. According to this expected BABIP tool from The Hardball Times, Alfonso’s rate of HR’s, K’s, stolen bases, line drives, fly balls, grounders and pop ups suggest his BABIP should have been about .305. That would improve his line to .266/.328/.448. Better, but still a far cry from his established level of play. ...

2009 Cubs and xBABIP
Another Cubs Blog — Here are the 2009 Cubs starting position players BABIP and xBABIP (I used this handy tool): Player BABIP xBABIP Soto 0.251 0.314 Lee 0.333 0.308 Fontenot 0.281 0.317 Theriot 0.327 0.335 Ramirez 0.331 0.306 Soriano 0.280 0.305 Fukudome 0.314 0.332 Bradley 0.311 0.322 Lee and Ramirez got a little lucky and the rest were a bit unlucky.  Geovany Soto got screwed.

Francoeur in Queens
FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball — ... According to this XBABIP tool from The Hardball Times, Frenchy’s BABIP with Atlanta (based on HR, K’s, SB, line drives, fly balls pop ups and grounders) should have been around .310. As a Met, his batted ball profile suggested a BABIP between .295 and .300. ...

Twins acquire SS Hardy for CF Gomez
FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball — ... But even so, J.J. was unlucky on balls put in play in 2009. He actually didn’t pop the ball up excessively (9.1 IF/FB%), taking away one possible cause of the low BABIP. Using this expected BABIP tool from The Hardball Times, we get a .306 XBABIP for Hardy, based on his HR, K, SB, line drive rate, fly balls, pop ups and ground balls. ...

What the hell happened with Geovany Soto? A crude estimation of his luck-neutral production
Another Cubs Blog — ... First, a few comments on where I’m getting all this info from. The state-of-the-art in xBABIP is this calculator from THT, which is what MB used to generate the xBABIP numbers in that post. But I’m going to back away from that because it uses more variables than I’d like to include right now (hence the ‘crude’ estimation disclaimer in my title). Obviously a players speed and plate discipline is going to have an effect, but I’m just going to boil it down to LD%, FB%, and GB%. One could also try to normalize his HR/FB luck, but he wasn’t ...

Playing in the spray – Curtis Granderson
The Detroit Tiger Weblog — ... Using the xBABIP calculator Granderson’s BABIP should have been about .301. So we can ballpark it and say half of his dip in BABIP can be attributed to bad luck, and about half can be chalked up to a change in batted ball distribution. ...

Buy Low on Soto
FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball — ... We can use Derek Carty’s Expected BABIP tool to get a better idea of Soto’s BABIP range, based upon his rate of HR’s, K’s, SB’s, line drives, fly balls, pop ups and groundballs. ...

Pablo Sandoval’s Prolific 2009
FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball — ... Sandoval has a career .356 BABIP at the big league level. Using the Expected BABIP tool from The Hardball Times, we get an XBABIP of .316. ...

Wither Chipper?
FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball — ... Jones’s BABIP was .291 in 2009. Based on his rate of home runs, strikeouts, stolen bases, line drives, fly balls, pop ups and groundballs, Chipper’s Expected BABIP was .330. Even assuming all hits were singles, that would take Chipper’s triple-slash line from .264/.388/.430 to .303/.427/.469. That comes out to a wOBA around .401. ...

Shopping for Shoppach
FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball — ... This data tells us that Shoppach isn’t a .286 BABIP hitter and that number damaged his 2009 numbers heavily even though he walked and struck out at a similar rate to his 2008 season. The Hardball Times has the best BABIP estimator currently available and this trusty tool can paint a much better picture than raw BABIP. The new toy (and new Rotographs favorite) finds an estimated BABIP based upon his rate of HR’s, K’s, SB’s, line drives, fly balls, pop ups and groundballs. This tool gives us a .332 BABIP for Shoppach in 2009 and a .322 mark for him during his 2008 career ...

Will the Real Jason Bartlett Please Stand Up?
FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball — ... Enter our favorite toy: The Hardball Times BABIP estimator. This calculator finds an estimated BABIP based upon a players rate of HR’s, K’s, SB’s, line drives, fly balls, pop ups and groundballs. Bartlett had a flukey looking .368 BABIP in 2009 that easily trumps his .330 career mark. ...

What’s Next For Navarro?
FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball — ... Using an expected BABIP calculator from The Hardball Times, we can get a better picture of what Navarro’s BABIP projects to be based on his batted ball profile. ...

Is New 40-Man Roster Addition Eduardo Nunez Actually a Solid Prospect?
Pending Pinstripes — ... Here's my answer to that question. Over the course of his career, Nunez has put together a career BABIP of .300, which is exactly league average. In 2009, his BABIP was .352, which sounds flukey at first, but for a speedy guy like Nunez, it doesn't have to be. That's what an xBABIP calculator is for. When you plug in Nunez's numbers, you come out with an xBABIP of--no surprise here-- .300 on the dot. Then, you can use that xBABIP to neutralize a batting line and take all luck out of the equation. After doing this, Nunez's line comes out to .275/.302/.385, which ...

Analyzing Curtis Granderson
Pending Pinstripes — ... His xBABIP of .301 shows that his high fly ball rate affected his BABIP, but also suggests that his real BABIP of .276 was a fluke. With his speed and line drive ability, it is very unlikely that he'll post a BABIP that low again. Normalizing his hitting for luck, I come up with a .267/.341/.471 line, which is definitely closer to what we should expect in the future. ...