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SleepyCA Can you really make a BABIP forecast without even looking at batted ball data? Luddy's BABIP was actually right on- based on his LD/FB/GB/IFFB rates, he had an expected BABIP of .346, with a real-world BABIP of .349, and an expected BA of .301 with a real-world of .299. He wasn't lucky in 2008, wrt to balls in play.
On a side note, I don't think minor league BABIP is relevant; at best, you'd have to adjust it with league BABIP information.
Also, fangraphs says he had a 19.9% HR/FB rate in 2008, which is significantly less than the 22 percent your article states. Not sure which one is right or wrong, but there is a big difference there. The jump from 16 to 19.9 is 33% less than the jump from 16 to 22.
tHR looks like an interesting concept. Not sure how I missed the original article on it, but I bookmarked it now ;) I would guess that it'll probably require a few more years of hittracker data to really get an idea if it is predictive, though, won't it?
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Derek Carty Hey SleepyCA,
Batted ball information is very nice and has lots of uses, but I don't believe it is absolutely necessary when looking at BABIP for guys with non-extreme speed. LDs are obviously the best to hit, but the stat isn't a very stable one. I assume that's the expected BABIP you're referring to. I'm not a fan of it simply because of how unstable LD% is. Ludwick, for example, posted a 26% LD%. There is very little chance of him repeating that in 2009, so basing an "expectd BABIP" off of that really isn't very useful. This type of measure is great for looking backward, but for looking forward isn't very useful.
GBs and FBs fall for hits at very similar rates on the whole, and while more research could definitely be done, I only think it makes a big difference for fast vs. slow guys. A guy like Carlos Gomez is much better off hitting balls on the ground that he can beat out with his speed than he would be putting them in the air where speed doesn't matter at all (at least in the context of BABIP), especially because with little power there isn't much potential HR benefit. Conversely, Frank Thomas is better off hitting them in the air because he won't be beating out too many infield grounders and is better off going for the long-ball or at least balls he can reach base on. For guys with moderate speed, though, I don't think it makes much of a difference.
Not sure where the expected BA figure is coming from (HQ? Calculating it yourself based on your expected BABIP estimate?), but regardless, it is assuming the BABIP that is likely too high for the reasons above and using his actual HR rate (I'm assuming; please correct me if I'm wrong).
You're absolutely right that I should have made some adjustments to the minor league data. I was only using it as a quick "something to think about," but converting it to an MLE would definitely be the sounder approach. Using the MLE calculator at MinorLeagueSplits, we get .319 in 2006 and .333 in 2007. Definitely changes things, although they are both higher than his mBABIP and would increase it if included.
The HR/FB I list is different from Fan Graphs because I use HR divided by Outfield Fly Balls. FanGraphs uses all Fly Balls. I think using outfield flies is better because an infield fly isn't indicative of power and has no chance of becoming a HR.
As far as tHR goes, you've probably guessed that I'm a big fan of it. A few more years worth of data will be nice, but the early tests show that it does have good predictive ability. Plus I like the methodology of it better than any others that I've seen, so I'm comfortable relying on it.
Hopefully that covers everything. If you disagree with anything or want to correct some of the assumptions I made, feel free to respond.
Thanks!
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Daily Farm Report 11/5/08
Future Redbirds —
... as you can get. I’m not saying Ludwick will be as great as he was last year, his season wasn’t all smoke and mirrors. Ankiel for either of those players makes more sense, in my opinion, but it’s hard to see Rick in any other uniform but a Cardinal uniform. That would kill a lot of man-crushes in many a St. Louisan. ...
Holliday season
Cardinals Diaspora —
... OPS above .900 for the other three, the only three months where he hit more than 5 HRs too. Ankiel takes some ugly cuts, struggling mightily with offspeed pitches. He has the power, but his OBP can be brutal to look at. He’s not the answer at cleanup. Ludwick gave the Cardinals consistency, posting only one month with an OPS below .800, June. However, I’m of the mind that Ludwick’s real ability lies somewhere in between his June and August performance. Take a look at this report from The Hardball Times that digs deeper into Ludwick’s 2008 numbers. ...
Holliday Season
Viva El Birdos —
... Still, Ludwick has his share of doubters. Derek Carty, over at THT, expects some "regression" this year based on a fairly high BABIP, and a high HR/FB ratio last year. I should point out that Carty’s numbers have his HR/FB ratio at 22%; THT has them at 21.2% and ...
The Holliday Matrix
Viva El Birdos —
... with his speculation that the Cards think Ludwick might be a one-hit wonder. I mentioned yesterday Derek Carty’s column at THT and the ...
