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The 2007 Von Hayes All-Stars
Chris Jaffe posted 7/25/2007 from ballhype.com
Remember Von Hayes? No? Well that's OK, you're hardly alone. And he's hardly worth remembering. How about Billy Doran or Tim Wallach? They may as well have been Von Hayes. They played a different position, but same basic guys.
All were all-star caliber talents. Wallach spent the 1980s backing up Mike Schmidt in All-Star Games, Von Hayes a terrific hitter in the late 1980s, and Bill Doran spent a few years as the NL's best second baseman not named Ryne Sandberg.
And they all fell apart completely in their early 30s. It was most dramatic with Von Hayes. In 1990 Hayes combined a .375 OBP with 17 homers. The next year he dropped over 70 points from his OBP and in excess of 100 from his SLG. The same year Wallach had a decline equally dramatic, though in his case he revived himself after three years where he was maybe the worst hitting third baseman in baseball. Doran went from his career year to selling pencils in three years.
That's the problem with aging patterns. It's been years since Bill James reported that a player peaks at age 27, has his prime when he's 27-30, and then gradually declines. That's certainly true of the overall story. It ain't true of every individual. For every Luis Gonzalez who mocks the Gods of Aging, there are numerous guys who . . . just fall of a farking cliff in their early 30s. And you never really know who will be Von Hayes and who will be Luis Gonzalez until it happens. Every year, though, a new patch of Von Hayeses appear.
So whadaya say we look at this year's Von Hayes All-Stars. The players who were really good once, but this year suddenly just . . . suck. If these guys would've made a team as solid as the 2006 White Sox. This year they'd be a team as pathetic as the 2007 White Sox. Here's the line-up:
Catcher: Michael Barrett: An all-around disaster at age 30. It's bad enough that his defense, never his strong point, declined as he's already set a new personal high for passed balls. It isn't just that while with the Cubs his baserunning was an abomination, or that he got in a yelling match with LHP Rich Hill ,and a fist fight with ace Carlos Zambrano. Naw, topping it all off, he forgot how to hit. His batting average is down 50 points and his power has dropped a smidge. Most incredibly, last night he had his 100th consecutive plate appearnce without a walk. Honorable mention: Ramon Hernandez.
First Base: Nomar Garciaparra. Not as neat a fit in that he's been past his prime for a while. However, he was always good. Even in '05, his worst season, he hit better than most guys at his position. Now, due to injuries and age the 33-year-old plays the less defensively demanding position of first base. A .280 average in and of itself ain't bad, but it has to be backed up by something better than four homers & a walk every 15 PA. Otherwise it's just an empty unimpressive mark. Honorable mention: Richie Sexson.
Second Base: Adam Kennedy. At age 31, it's like he's on a one-man crusade to show the AL isn't superior to the NL. After several years of remarkably consistent play of solid if never spectacular ball for the Angels, he's been a blight on St Louis's roster. Forget hitting .300 - neither his SLG nor his OBP are at that high. Honorable mention: Tad Iguchi.
Shortstop. Julio Lugo. Going by OPS+, he was hella consistent from 2003-6 posting marks of 95, 94, 105, and 94. This year he's at 64. Sure he's 25-for-27 stealing bases, but his batting average has fallen off the face of the earth this year at age 31.
Third Base: Morgan Ensberg. Really, it's a toss between him and Scott Rolen. Ensberg wasn't as good for as long as Rolen, but Rolen's '05 was worse than his current campaign. Last year Ensberg lost his average, and this year he lost his power. Another player who the 30s haven't been kind to.
Right Field: Jermaine Dye. Can he really be the first White Sox to make the squad? Well, Juan Uribe, AJ Pierzynski, Tad Iguchi, and Joe Crede all have fallen off. But Uribe's a little too young for this, AJ's decline isn't as drastic as others, Iguchi can only pull of the honorable mention, and Crede can use injuries as an excuse. That only leaves the 33-year-old RFr. Last year he was an MVP candidate. This year he's possible trade bait -- but how much demand is there really for a corner outfielder hitting .229 with a moderate number of walks, even if he does have power?
Center Field: Mark Kotsay: I don't care if he's had injuries. He's hitting worse than Adam Kennedy. Offensively he was never great, but his defense made him a worthwhile player as long as he kept his average somewhere around .280. At age 31, he's barely over the Mendoza Line.
Left Field: Craig Monroe. He had a very nice prime over the last few years, making up for his lack of OBP with good power. The power might still be there, but there's no way it excuses a .267 OBP. He helped Detroit make it to the promised land last year, but if they go back this year it will be despite this 30 year old.
Designated Hitter: Aubrey Huff. Having a list like this without one Baltimore acquisition would be like having Christmas without commercialism. Capable of hitting 20+ homers for years, at age 30 he's still looking for #7 in late July.
Starting Pitcher: Kevin Millwood. What the hell happened to him? I know he was over his head when he led the league in ERA in '05, but he was still good last year. That 5.56 ERA this year understates the 32-year-old's problems as he's already allowed more unearned runs than he has in four of the last five seasons.
Starting Pitcher: Vicente Padilla. At age 29, he really doesn't fit my criteria. But I have to include him because of the shock and horror I feel for the Texas starting rotation. At the year's outset I thought they had a shot to be the surprise contender in the AL. Last year they outscored their opponents by 50 runs (better than either Anaheim or Oakland), and had several solid core players in their offense. Most of all I liked their rotation. Brandon McCarthy looked like a good pick up from the White Sox, and along with Padilla and Millwood they had a very effective 1-2-3 punch. Even if the back of their rotation was a little shaky, that's OK, because almost every teams are weak back there. Turns out the guys I thought were dependable are complete disasters. Padilla has been no worse than average when he's pitched since 2000 (average ERA+ for a starter is 96). This year he's Jose Lima. Total disaster.
Starting Pitcher: Jeff Suppan. A personal favorite player of mine for a while now. He's gotten slagged on as a lousy pitcher because he's merely consistently a little above average. Ya know what? A little above average ain't lousy, especially when you're consistently healthy. At age 32, he's finally lousy. Way to go critics, you're finally right about him!
Starting Pitcher: Freddy Garcia. I try to avoid injuries here, but so many pitchers get injured, it's hard to find 5 badly declining ones in perfect health. He recorded 116 wins in 251 starts prior to this year. He has 1 in 11 for Philly.
Starting Pitcher: Barry Zito. As long as I'm putting 29-year-olds on, I have to put him in it. Hope and pray to God that he comes back, Giants fans. Otherwise he'll be such a financial sinkhole you'll have to nickname him Iraq.
Left-handed Reliever: Scott Eyre. At age 35 he's might be too old to qualify, but he's fallen incredibly hard. He's been very good for several years since receiving medication for ADD at the outset of the millenium. This year he's allowed 67 baserunners in under 32 innings.
Right-handed Reliever: Mike MacDougal. I have trouble finding relievers to put in because the best either end up as closers or starters, hence there's not many middle reliever righthanders to pick from. MacDougal's always been good when he's been asked to pitch a lot. In 31 appearances at age 21 he's allowed 19 runs in 21.7 innings. OUCH!
Closer: BJ Ryan. Doesn't quite fit, because he's injured. But there's not many closers with really good track records for several straight years. After being one of the best in the business, he's having a horrible season at age 31.
