The Advantage of Batting Left-Handed
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The Hardball Times found this 11/15/2007 on www.hardballtimes.com [flag] |
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Comments (20)
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jimu +2Great article. I think if you could take it a step further, who is most likely to get pinch hit for in the game? I would think that most likely the LH infielder would not face the LOOGY, so that would help 'save' his average a little more than if he would have to face him. So if you could look at all the extra times these guys are taken out compared to all the times a RH batter was replaced during the game, and somehow made an assumption that the LH batter would hit their average against LHP in these PA, then I'm betting that the differenece would be even lower. -
Ytse Good article. My first guess, upon reading the headline, was that if hitters pull the ball, it's easier to get the ball past a first baseman than it is to get it past a third baseman. I was thinking the shortstop and second baseman would be a sort of defensive draw. Either way, I'm very glad people have the time, knowledge and desire to write articles like this. Thanks.-
studes I had the same thought, only a little differently. IIRC, in The Book, we see that lefthanded batters have an advantage when the first baseman has to cover first with a runner on. Might not that account for a sizable portion of the difference between LH and RH batters?-
pizzacutter Studes, I found that there is a "hole" on the right side when the 1B is covering first (although fewer balls hit down the line go for hits). The problem is that fewer balls are actually hit through that hole, so the effect actually washes out in the aggregate. My guess is that with a runner on first, pitchers pitch a little differently. -
walshj58 Yes, I believe lefties do have an advantage for that reason (I mention this briefly in my conclusions, well, the fact that I didn't look at it).
But, this kind of advantage would be like the platoon advantage -- it would not be apparent once you control for positional bias because of minor leaguers moving up to close the gap.
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tangotiger John, great article. I wish I would have thought of it two years ago.
Why did you just go with batting average at the end? What were the OBP and SLG numbers?
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walshj58 I went with batting average mainly for simplicity and because I was initially focusing on the distance from 1B, which would only affect AVG.
I don't think any conclusions would be modified using other offensive measures.
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joshkalk I just want to say that this is one of the best articles I have read all year and not just about baseball. Kudos John.-
walshj58 Thanks, Josh, and to the others, too, for the kind words.
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mlentzner It's funny how something that seems so simple can get so complicated.
One thing that you didn't look at is the overshift used on slugging lefties. You would expect that to lower BA. I think it would be very difficult to work it into any kind of analysis so don't take it as a criticism.
On the other hand there is Ichiro, who I think definitely increases his BA by batting left. He's a freak though - not an example of the general trend (which you nailed).
I think it is interesting that at the high end (hall of fame caliber) the best hitters are very lefty. If you took the ten most talented hitters in a decade (best bat speed, contact ability, and pitch recognition). You would expect three of them to bat left and they would be that much better than their right handed counterparts to the point that the best overall hitters could be three lefties and one righty. Pujols might be Ruthian if he was a lefty (which you aluded to).
Regards, Matt
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walshj58 Hey Matt,
I thought about the shift, but as you noted, it would not be straightforward to glean from the data itself when the shift was on or off. Still, it would probably be a good topic for further research, perhaps with the mlb.com hit data that is now available.
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Joshey Great article. I defintiely learned a lot from it. -
pizzacutter John, if you control for which fielder the ball was hit to on the infield (for example, taking only GBs hit to the 3B) is there a difference for LH and RH hitters? That might give a little bit more definitive look at whether the "two steps closer" explanation really does hold water. I understand it washes out due to the pull effect, but we can measure the effect of those two steps.-
walshj58 pizza,
this is a good suggestion and in fact while working on the piece I looked at this. I found very strange results, namely that when a ball is hit to the left side, lefties have a much bigger chance for an IF hit. Ok, that's what we'd expect.
However, on balls hit to the right side, righties have an advantage! In other words, balls hit to the opposite field are harder to turn into outs. I actually found the same effect when studying IF defense a few months ago.
Incidently, when the catcher or pitcher fields the ball (many bunts, most likely), lefties have an advantage.
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pizzacutter Perhaps a GB to the opposite field is more likely to be a jam/cue shot which ends up as a dribbler in no man's land?-
walshj58 That's a reasonable conjecture, but when I was looking at IF defense in general (not just IF-fielded balls), I found that balls hit the opposite way tended to get through to the OF more often as well. Which doesn't fit with the dribbler hypothesis.
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mlentzner John,
I've actually been thinking about this off and on since our exchange of emails. I think your original idea that grounders hit to the opposite field are better hit that pull side grounders is correct.
If one buys into the idea that the non level swing steers grounders to the pull field, then it also follows that the worst hit of those get pulled the most. The balls that get beat into the ground would almost never go the opposite way. On the other hand, balls hit level to the ground (one hoppers) will have much less directional bias and will get sprayed around the infield (assuming the hitter is not a pull hitter).
I wonder if second basemen play deeper vs. righty hitters than lefty hitters. If true, that would be strong corraborating evidence. I know some 2Bs play very deep, at the edge of the outfield, but I never noted in what situations.
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TheGrandHatching Terrific article, John. Just out of curiousity, is there any kind of interaction of handedness x position within the two groups? That is, does one position in particular (say, 1B) seem to drive the difference in BA between righties and lefties while another (say, RF) seem to wash it out? -
Temple77 Could the positional bias drive the percentage of time lefties get on with infield hits? Since lefties play the the power generating positions, and slap hitters are weeded out. Because of this, lefties tend to be sluggers who tend to be a bit slower and hit the ball harder. These factors would reduce infield hits for lefties. Maybe the extra couple of feet produce more infield hits for OF - 1B lefties then their righty counterparts. -
snowmanny The positional argument makes sense. An analagous situation exists in basketball, in which shorter players tend to have higher free throw percentages than tall players.
It's not that being short is an advantage, or that great free-throw shooters like Larry Bird or Jack Sikma would have been even better if they'd been short. It is that height is a requirement for certain positions, and teams therefore sacrifice other abilities (eg shooting free throws) in order to get a tall enough player to be a center or forward, just as baseball teams will sacrifice offense to get a second baseman who can make the pivot.
Links (8)
Positional bias in batting left-handed
Published 11/15/2007 by Tangotiger (tangotiger@yahoo.com) at THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball
Great idea.
Sinister Reasons
Published 11/15/2007 by StatsGuru at Baseball Musings
... November 15, 2007 Sinister Reasons The Hardball Times looks at position bias as a major explanation for the advantage of left-handed batters over right-handed batters . Posted by David Pinto at ...
Rounding The Bases: Better To Be A Southpaw
Published 11/15/2007 by Andy Smith at Bugs & Cranks
There is an advantage to being a left-handed hitter. But why? [ The Hardball Times ] With an impending trade, Miguel Cabrera says he’s going to lose weight. [ ...
Lancelot Links
Published 11/15/2007 by josh q. public at josh q. public
... 3. South Park Stan thinks Jay Cutler Sucks: Predominantly Orange
4. Brady Quinn is a butch lesbian. With Leather
5. The Sacramento Kings have Flava: Ballsiest.com
6. NBA All-Metrosexual Team: Pistons Nation
7. The advantage of batting lefty. Hardball Times
8. The Legend of Johnny Flynn. ...
High Five
Published 11/15/2007 by Fornelli at Foul Balls
... ] What are the advantages of being a left-handed hitter? [ The Hardball Times ] So how exactly is Andres Nocioni starting going to help anything? [ ...
Friday’s Basically Top Five Blog Posts
Published 11/16/2007 by Jamie Mottram at Mr. Irrelevant
... to get filthy rich.
An underclassmen is in line to win the Heisman. With Dixon’s injury, Tebow moves to the top of the list and tries to make history.
Digger Phelps is starring in a play. That is all. Have a good weekend, everybody.
Bonus links: NHL.com = NBA.com … Nick Saban reverses the aging process … Bay Area is bizarro Boston … It’s too soon to anoint the C’s … Lefties rule!
Sweeney is fixing his swing
Published 11/16/2007 by thewizardsofoz <info@southsidesox.com> at South Side Sox
... out of reach" are removed from the calculation (the Manny Adjustment). Jim has video of Ryan Sweeney's first AFL extra base hit (3-run HR). He had 2 doubles yesterday. Hot Stove: The Padres are interested in Matt Clement. Clement could be looking for a one-year deal with incentives. Torii Hunter is the Rangers #1 goal. Omar Minaya says he's willing to trade his top prospects for a starting pitcher. And Tadahito is a Free Agent. The advantage of batting left-handed. PMR stats for RF, 2B, and 3B. And Carl has ...
The Irreducible Essence of Platoon Splits
Published 11/20/2007 by Dan Agonistes at Dan Agonistes
The following article first appeared on Baseball Prospectus in April of 2006 and I thought it was timely given the previous post on the subject and John Walsh's fine article digging deeper into the causes of this split differences. ...
