The Hardball Times: Does Trevor Hoffman struggle in non-save situations?
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The Hardball Times found this 4/10/2008 on www.hardballtimes.com [flag] |
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MLB
Trevor Hoffman
Comments (9)
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Geoff Young Nice. Sean must have just added these.
Some of the IBB can be accounted for by the 13 he issued in '93, before he'd become a closer, but still, that is a lot.
Interesting about the multi-inning games. As it happens, there's a fairly clear point where he essentially stopped working more than one inning. Here are the save vs non-save breakdowns for those two periods in his career:
1994-2000:
save: 301 G, 1.04 IP/G
non-save: 141, 1.262001-2007:
save: 278 G, 0.96 IP/G
non-save: 95, 0.99In other words, the discrepancy more or less disappeared when he reached age 33.
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GoOrange Here's another factor to consider - the offensive prowess he faces in save vs. non-save situations.
In a save situation, his team is usually ahead. In a non-save situation, his team is either tied or behind. Are you more likely to be ahead of a team with a poor offense and more likely to be behind a team with a weaker offense? Tracking down various offensive statistics for batters faced in his save vs. non-save situations is probably too much work, but it could be interesting.
My point is that TH's performance in save vs. non-save situations might not be a factor of his pitching, but more of an indicator of who he is facing.
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sdanne You can also look at Hoffman's clutch stats on fangraphs, for a more fluid version of importance.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1035&position=P
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Steve C GY good article on Trevor but one thing I kept thinking was what was his loss to appearance ration on non-saves situation compared to his blown save to appearance ratio in save situations? When it comes down to it doesn’t his effectiveness boil down to if he gets the job done or not?
By running the number very quickly:
Hoffman has had 607 save opportunities in his career and has only 81 blown saves.
Hoffman also has 279 non-save appearances in his career and has only lost 36 of those games.81 BS/607 SA = 13.3% failure rate or 86.7% success rate
36 L / 279 NSA = 12.9% failure rate or 87.1% success rate
When it comes down to what really matters (winning and loosing) Hoffman is just as efficient in either situation. Now granted this has been over his entire career and like GY mentioned in his article there is not real pattern from year to year to set a trend to.
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William Lu According to 'The Book', the odd of winning for a home team with 3-run lead at Top 9th is around 95% ~ 96%. Frankly speaking, a '3-run lead save situaion' doesn't look too different from 'Non-save situtaion' to me. I'm a little bit curious about how the split stats look like If those '3-run lead SVO' are classified as 'Non-save situation'. Would this give Hoffman a new title, say, a 'huge-lead squander' all-time save leader?
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studes Personally, I'd skip all the "save/non-save" crap because, as you say, a tie game is much more important than one with a three-game lead. I'd just refer to the leverage splits at BRef.-
Geoff Young Unfortunately "all the 'save/non-save' crap" is what folks fixate on here in San Diego.-
tangotiger I agree it's not crap if Hoffman perceives the save situation as more important than a tie game. I find that hard to believe of course.
What we need is for someone to ask Trevor which situations does he find more pressure: tie game, or ahead by 3.
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Links (10)
Performance in non-save situations
Published 4/10/2008 by Tangotiger (tangotiger@yahoo.com) at THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball
Geoff gives us the lowdown on one of our generations best relievers. I responded at ballhype:
B-r.com now has splits by save and non-save situations:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/psplit.cgi?n1=hoffmtr01&year=0&lg=&team=#outco-outco
Three things jumped out:
1. lots of IBB in non-save situations
2. much higher BABIP in non-save situations
3. alot more multi-inning games in non-save situations
I, Me, Mine
Published 4/10/2008 by Geoff Young at Ducksnorts
... My latest article at Hardball Times examines the belief that Trevor Hoffman struggles in non-save situations. ...
Saving His Best for Saves?
Published 4/10/2008 by Geoff Young at Knuckle Curve - Baseball News
... My latest article at Hardball Times asks whether San Diego Padres closer Trevor Hoffman is as ineffective in non-save situations as some folks seem to think he is. Enjoy! ...
Does Trevor blow it more in non-save situations?
Published 4/10/2008 by Dex at Gaslamp Ball
... Geoff from Ducksnorts wrote a piece breaking down Trevor's appearances in save situations vs non-save situations over the course of his career. I thought I'd piggyback on and run a little more analysis to see if there really are statistically significant differences with how Trevor handles the situations. Read Geoff's piece first and then come back here. ...
Friday links
Published 4/11/2008 by MB at Friar Forecast
... see it. We’re 5-5 with 32 runs scored and 31 allowed. Replace one loss with a win and the Padres are playing .600 ball, well above any expectations. Of course, evaluating a team based on 10 games is probably fruitless, and that’s why I’m not really overly concerned with Bell, Edmonds, Hoffman, or the .500 start. If that’s boring, well, so be it. We’ve got plenty of games to see how things play out. And some links ….
GY comes through with a pretty cool look at Trevor Hoffman’s performance in save and non-save situations. ...
Young on Hoffman
Published 4/11/2008 by Craig Calcaterra at ShysterBall
Geoff Young investigates the conventional wisdom which holds that Trevor Hoffman doesn't pitch all that well in non-save situations. I like this article for the simple reason that Young -- who, as most of you know, writes the stellar Padres blog Ducksnorts -- has probably seen Hoffman pitch more than anyone this side of Jerry Coleman. He no doubt had an opinion about this before, yet rather than simply bang out a paragraph based on his personal views an experience, he actually investigates the issue to see if it's true, and is happy to end with a somewhat ...
Daily Roundup 4/11/08
Published 4/11/2008 by R.J. Anderson at Beyond the Box Score
... - Geoff Young looks closer at Trevor Hoffman, specifically if he's worse in non-save situations. Young didn't find much of a pattern, but that's a common analysis point when a closer gets roughed up without qualifying for a save. ...
Friday Links (11 Apr 08)
Published 4/11/2008 by Geoff Young at Ducksnorts
... Dex also builds on my Hardball Times article about Trevor Hoffman in non-save situations. First he ...
This Week in News and Sabermetrics: 4/6-4/12
Published 4/12/2008 by Eric J. Seidman at Statistically Speaking
... Baltimore Orioles (AL East) vs. Chicago White Sox (Wild Card)
Kansas City Royals (AL Central) vs. Oakland Athletics (AL West)
Arizona DBacks (NL West) vs. Winner of Tiebreaking Game between CHC/MIL
Florida Marlins (NL East) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (NL Central)
In Case You Missed It
Here are some great sabermetrics articles from this past week:
Geoff Young looks at whether or not Trevor Hoffman struggles during non-save situations.
While I measure the most average hitters ...
4-11 Sacrifical Links, Plus Bonus Content
Published 4/12/2008 by Melvin Nieves at The Sacrifice Bunt
... clears wavers (Mlive.com)
Former Padres 2004 season “savior” Fredford Guzman sent to AA Erie.
Kind of old news I know, there’s no need to rub it in.
Picking The Under - Josh Bard (Baseball Prospectus)
Nate Silver is “moderately skeptical” about Bard, citing his low power numbers as a threat to his OBP. Bard’s 28.6% line drive percentage so far this year should put a stop to that kind of attitude.
Does Trevor Hoffman struggle in non-save situations? (Hardball Times via Geoff Young)
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Good stuff.
B-r.com now has splits by save and non-save situations:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/psplit.cgi?n1=hoffmtr01&year=0&lg=&team=#outco-outco
Three things jumped out:
1. lots of IBB in non-save situations
2. much higher BABIP in non-save situations
3. alot more multi-inning games in non-save situations