The Hardball Times:Evaluating the C.C. Sabathia trade
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The Hardball Times found this 7/8/2008 on www.hardballtimes.com [flag] |
Tags:
MLB
C.C. Sabathia
Comments (16)
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Victor Wang Thanks David
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david.burden Isn't this double counting the value of wins for the Brewers?
That is, Sabathia is expected to provide $5.6M more in win value than the cost of his salary, but then another $2.1M is creditted for the 2.2 win bump. I would think we should only add the bump from not playing Choate.
Also, I'm confused by the application of inflation. The draft picks' values are increased from $8.95M & $3.24M (in the text) to $12.2M & $4.42M (in the summary). I suppose this is saying that salaries will have risen by the time these draft picks reach the majors, making the picks more valuable? If so, I think you have to apply a similar penalty for the fact that wins/dollars tomorrow are less valuable than wins/dollars today.
These are minor quibbles; I love this sort of analysis.
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Victor Wang Thanks for the comments David, glad you liked the article. No I don't think it's double counting. I think surplus value and win curve value should be treated separately, but I'm open to other opinions. Nate's original article on draft pick values was in 2005 so I adjusted for inflation to today's values. He already adjusts the values to net present value.-
david.burden Thanks for the explanation of inflation as applied to draft pick value.
As for double counting . . . I think the heart of the matter is defining what your units are. If it is "dollars," the Brewers get credit for the additional revenue they can expect from wins with Sabathia and without Choate ($2.4M), the bump in Expected Playoff Revenue ($9.8M), the expected savings from the future draft picks relative to free agent acquisitions($16.6M), and they lose the expected savings of the prospects relative to free agents ($36.5M).
The odd figure out there is Sabathia's Win Share Value. As I understand WSV, it attempts to represent how much the Brewers would have to spend to get a free agent of equivalent quality beyond the player's actual salary - but signing some other free agent is not really an option at this point of the season, unless Barry likes to race sausages. The Brewers can't take Sabathia's WSV to the bank, and they are already getting credit for the wins he's expected to provide, and for the impact of those wins on their playoff chances.
In fact, I think the Brewers should be docked the remainder of Sabathia's salary, since they have to pay it to get the benefits above.
Thanks again for the analysis.
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Slice Victor,
Very interesting, but the relationships aren't symmetrical so while the trade is around breakeven for the Brewers, that doesn't measure how it is for the Indians.
Indians Give up:
Sabathia, two picks, a few wins and a very small chance of making the playoffs (valued at zero) for a total value loss of $24.3 MM less than the talent acquired (36.5MM). Still worth doing, but the trade works because the Brewers paid in talent for the value of the playoff birth.
Kevin
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mgl8 Great analysis! Especially this:
"When we evaluate player trades, what we care about is the surplus value of each player involved. A player’s surplus value is equivalent to his win value in a dollar figure minus his salary."
Too many people, including some smart ones, ignore or do not understand this concept.
On Rob Neyer's blog, he wrote this:
"When you trade a great player you lose unless you get a great player in return, and LaPorta has a real shot at becoming a great player."
To which, I replied:
"We (Rob and I) have discussed this before, but that is patently false, or at the very least, misleading or incomplete. When you trade a player, what you 'should' get in return has nothing whatsoever to do with how good that player is. It has to do with his value (how good he is) AND his status/contract. For example, If you trade a great player who is making 20 mil a year, you 'should' get nothing in return. If you trade an average player who is under your control for the next 3 years making the minimum salary, you should get lots (about 25 million dollars worth of 'lots') in return. Etc.
C.C is making 8.88 mil this year. He is worth, as a FA, around 20-22 mil, as a 5 WAR player. So a team who acquires him should be willing to give up around 5.5 mil in talent (the difference between his prorated salary and his prorated FA value for the remainder of the season)."
So, Wang and I are in agreement as to the surplus or trade value (equity, like in a house) of Sabathia.
I only have a couple of quibbles with Wang's analysis:
His "algorithm" for computing Sabathia's talent level (current value above replacement) is missing perhaps the most important thing in a projection system, especially for pitchers, which is a regression toward the mean. Consequently, he is going to overvalue Sabathia. Even with that oversight, I agree that CC is worth around 2-2.5 wins to MIL for the remainder of the season.
Two, he says that adding CC increases MIL chances of making the post-season from 21% to 50%. Those are based on some very general assumptions (the chances that an 87 win team compared to an 89 win team makes the post-season). When I run my "season sim" I get that MIL makes the post-season 51.3% of the time (as a .525 team from now to the end of the season). Before the trade, MIL made the post-season, according to the sim, 36.4% of the time, for an increase of only 14.9% rather than Wang's 29%.
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b-ball23 Great article. It would be nearly perfect if we had the $ value of a win for the Brewers so you could use that in place of 950,000 (or whatever number you used). Other than that, great work as I know all this would be much easier using a projection system database (I think MGL has one) where you could do all of the work with the click of a mouse. -
walshj58 Agreed, a very nice piece of work.
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PitVipers Great article. Maybe I missed it, but if Sabathia is adding 2.2 wins and the corresponding revenue to the Brewers, shouldn't Cleveland be docked revenue by losing wins? It wouldn't be the same amount of revenue as the Brewers gained, but shouldn't there be some offset?
I'm anxiously awaiting your analysis of the Harden deal.
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jonk1982 Randy Choate hasn't even pitched for the Brewers this year, so I'm not sure how you can have Seth McClung replace him in the bullpen.
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b-ball23 Why use baseball prospectus’ draft pick $$ value numbers when you had your own from doing the Santana evaluations? The numbers may be similar, I guess.
Also, I agree with PitVipers about Sabathia. Shouldn’t the Indians be docked some money for decreasing their playoff chances (albeit a small decrease)?
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b-ball23 Now that I've had a little time to digest the article, there are a few things I'd like to bring up:
1) Looking at the prospect value tables youd id, how is an 11-25 prospect worth 11 WAB? No major leaguer is worth even worth 6+ WAR (I don't particularly like WAB but to each to his own), except maybe A-Rod.
2) How did you get $23.5 million for LaPorta? If he's 11-25, that's $11 mil * 4.88 = $54 mil - salary. That would be even a larger surpulus than what you have, using your numbers.
3) Why do you use Nate's prospect values for the Brewers draft picks and your prospect values for the prospects the Indians received? Shouldn't you be using one method throughout?
Hopefully I expressed myself throughouly.
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Victor Wang Hi b-bball23 thanks for the comments.
1) That 11 WAB figure would be over the prospects' six years of team control, which would be about 1.8 WAB/yr. Also, you shouldn't use the WAB figures in trade evaluations (even though I think I use that in the Santana article which is my mistake), you should look at the surplus value which equals PV Savings in the tables in the Santana article.
2) $23.5 comes from the PV Savings from the 11-25 hitter chart
3) I only used Nate's values for draft picks because my values only include prospect ratings.
And yes, I should of docked the Indians for the decreased playoff odds but that should hardly affect the analysis.
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b-ball23 Got everything, just one last thing. How did you calculate the $23.5 million for the PV savings, though? You went through an outline in the article but could you go through the exact way you caclulated what he'd be worth over his salary for the 6 years? I understand how you calculate present value, but I'm just wondering what $$ value you got for the 11-25 guys and then what you projected their salary would be for the 6 years because that is how you get the $23.5 mil in savings...-
Victor Wang Basically you compare what the player will earn based on minimum salary rules and arbitration trends. From there, you find what a free agent of the same caliber would earn, factoring in inflation to both of those steps. You take the savings and convert to NPV.
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Links (8)
The Morning Tailgate
Published 7/8/2008 by Josh Bacott at STLSportsMag
... Bismal…
The Sporting News bids farewell to the city it called home for 122 years [STL Today]
Aaron Miles is developing quite a “following” in St. Louis [JoeSportsFan.com]
Profiling the catchers at the Futures Game, including our very own Bryan Anderson [MILB.com]
Tony Gonzalez: Good at catching footballs, good at the heimlich maneuver [Sports by Brooks]
A more in-depth look at the CC Sabathia trade [Hardball Times]
Updating the status of the Rams draft picks [Turfshow Times] ...
Considering CC
Published 7/8/2008 by noreply@blogger.com (Kujo) at Rockin' the Red
... Perhaps the haul Cleveland got from Milwaukee will be indicative as to what the asking prices are going to be this hot stove season. First, read this article from the Hardball Times to read up on how the trade is basically a win-win. The Brewers traded ...
An even deal
Published 7/8/2008 by Steve at Brewers! Brewers! Keep Turnin' Up the Heat!
... Posted by Steve Just quickly wanted to share this great analysis of the trade by Victor Wang of THT. He gives every aspect of the deal a dollar amount, including the Brewers increased chances of reaching the post-season, and the trade comes up just about even. 0 Comments Filed under ...
Where we stand now
Published 7/8/2008 by Maddog (maddog@anothercubsblog.net) at Another Cubs Blog
The Cubs lead over the Cardinals in the actual standings is 3.5 while the Brewers are 4 out. 3rd order winning percentage has the Cubs with quite an advantage over the Brewers (6.2 games) and the Cardinals (6.8 games). So if anyone is wondering why I really don't care that the Brewers got Sabathia, it's partly because of the 4.0 they are out, the 6.2 they are out in the 3rd order winning percentage (probably the best indicator of how a team will play moving forward) and the fact that Sabathia only improves the Brewers by about 2 wins (THT has it at 2.2 wins) ...
A really good analysis of a trade (CC to the Brewers)
Published 7/9/2008 by mgl (mgl8@cox.net) at THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball
Victor Wang wrote this really good article in THT analyzing the CC Sabathia trade:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/evaluating-the-cc-sabathia-trade/
On Ballhype, I made these comments:
In the News (7-8)
Published 7/9/2008 by Tyler (noreply@blogger.com) at Right Field Bleachers
... to pitch well enough to keep his new team in the game. The hefty lefty lasted six innings, fanned five and gave up two earned runs while walking five in a winning effort against the Rockies. Three hits by Rickie Weeks, a long homer by Ryan Braun and an all around gorgeous display of relief pitching helped keep Carsten Charles in charge. The almost requisite CC links: (page down if you're like me and wish to avoid a dozen similar articles) - The Hardball Times evaluates the CC Sabathia deal. - MLB Trade Rumors rounds up a ...
Valuable lessons in blogging …
Published 7/9/2008 by MB at Friar Forecast
If you don’t have anything interesting to say, don’t say anything at all! Some may say I could have used this advice a long time ago … like a day or two before I started blogging : )
With that in mind, check out Victor Wang’s great analysis of the CC Sabathia deal.
CC's playoff troubles continue, Phillies on brink of NLCS
Published 5 days ago by David Brown at Big League Stew
... That type of doubt is probably not what Doug Melvin wanted when the Crew's GM mortgaged part of his club's future by trading for Sabathia,
who is expected to command anywhere between $100-$200 million on the
free agent market this winter from a team other than Milwaukee. ...
Awesome article, Victor.