The Hardball Times: Radar gun readings: sabermetric building blocks?
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The Hardball Times found this 4/14/2008 on www.hardballtimes.com [flag] |
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MLB
Comments (7)
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salb918 Tango,
Let's check by age...
Among those under age 30 in 2006, the regression equation is (2007 fb vel) = (0.96)*(2006 fb vel) + 0.04*(lg-avg fb vel)
(where the lg-avg fb vel is evaluated only for those pitchers in the new sample: under 30 in 2006, at least 100 IP in both 2006 and 2007.)
So, the regression is actually greater, which is surprising, but you are regressing to a higher fb velocity (91 mph for the young pitchers as opposed to 90 mph for all the pitchers in the original sample). The r2 is 0.94, slightly higher than what I reported for the original sample.
You're right, there's a lot to do here. This is barely scratching the surface. But this is the sort of building block we'll need in order to expand the "roots" of the sabermetric hierarchy.
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tcfc I have heard it said that all teams win sixty and lose sixty its the remaining 42 that determine who goes to the playoffs. So all this number crunching over pitching, batting, defense etc is the tail wagging the dog. Figure out which games are the most important. Is a win or loss in April more or less important than one in September? Why risk injuring your best players on a meaningless loss or meaningless win save them for the important 42?-
skyking162 If this is satire, it's the funniest comment I've read all week.
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JinAZ Just wanted to say that I love your flow charts. They really helped me crystallize my thinking. -j -
sdanne I asked this of someone else and he didn't get back to me, so I'll ask here. Can you look at fastballs from 2007 and see how fast those are being thrown so far in 2008, while paying closer attention to cold weather climates? I looked at a handful of pitchers on Fangraphs and noticed that all of them have decreased fastball velocity compared to last year (Haren, Oswalt, Sabathia, Zambrano, Matsuzaka, Vazquez, and others).... can you see just how much velocity the hard-throwing pitchers have lost? I have a feeling it's as much as 1-2 mph on average.-
salb918 Good question...I'll add to the list of things to look at...
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Links (3)
Fastball aging curves
Published 4/14/2008 by Tangotiger (tangotiger@yahoo.com) at THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball
Rally and Sal talk about fastball speeds, and what they can tell us. I wrote on ballhype:
Age and injuries would be the biggest cause of a dropoff. I would guess that if you looked at pitchers only in their 20s, the fastball in 2006 would be almost identical to his 2007. Can you confirm? Simply put, you need an age parameter. I’d also love to see it for the other pitch types. And the “split” in pitches thrown (% of pitches that are fastballs, etc). Lots of great stuff here. ...
Fastballs n’ Stuff
Published 4/14/2008 by David Appelman at FanGraphs Baseball
... Sal Baxamusa wrote an article in today’s Hardball Times about some of the fastball velocity data on FanGraphs and how they correlate year-to-year. ...
Friday Night Fungoes: Dan Fox, Projections, and the Future, man!
Published 4/19/2008 by Justin at On Baseball and the Reds
... Sal Baxamusa did a great job of putting forth an organizational scheme to help us understand baseball player valuation. I find those sorts of charts to be tremendously effective ways to organize my thoughts. The first chart he presented is basically what I worked through in my ...
Age and injuries would be the biggest cause of a dropoff. I would guess that if you looked at pitchers only in their 20s, the fastball in 2006 would be almost identical to his 2007. Can you confirm?
Simply put, you need an age parameter.
I'd also love to see it for the other pitch types.
And the "split" in pitches thrown (% of pitches that are fastballs, etc).
Lots of great stuff here.