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tangotiger John, can you show Lilly's previous pitch and location, prior to the CH, and how that compares to the other pitchers?
I will guess that would be one way to figure if he meant to throw inside. How often would a pitcher throw two balls consecutively inside, especially if it's a FB/CH combination?
Unless you've already done it, I think that would be a great article on how pitchers "mix 'em up", in terms of distance gap between back-to-back pitches, break, and speed.
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walshj58 Hey Tom,
I think the question of sequencing is an interesting one, and I've been mulling over how to approach the problem generally.
I don't think, though, in this case we'll be able to infer much about Lilly's intention based on the previous pitch.
A better way would be to look at video, where you can see where the catcher sets up. If some hardy soul would want to undertake that, I would happily provide a list of Lilly's inside changeups, including game, inning, batter, count, etc.
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joshkalk Great work John. More please :)-
walshj58 thanks, josh.
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MGL I for one was in the Hernandez camp, although, as you say, John, "never" is a strong word.
I think your data completely refute Hernandez' claim. There are clearly some pitchers that use the inside change up, at least some of the time.
The problem, even for Keith, is that there are so many more outdide changeups that when you watch games or even play in them for 15 years, like Keith, you apparantly forget that you've seen or experienced an intentional inside change.
Another example of how inefficient the human mind, our senses, and our memory are at storing and processing data.
Nice job!
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walshj58 Thanks, Mitchel.
You've pretty much summed up here my own view, especially the part about the inefficiency of our senses and memory. Gilovich's book on the subject is a good read, if you haven't already.
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slacker7 the thing about lilly is that he pounds the zone inside so it throwing it inside makes sense for him but in my experience it seems that change ups away are more effective
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cincinnatus_c_ Commentators like to say about inside off-speed pitches, when they work, that "there's nothing he could do with that pitch but yank it foul."
An inside changeup?
THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball —
... John looks into how often pitchers throw the inside changeup and how Ted Lilly bucks that trend. I commented on ...
Daily Links - 7/28/08
Watching the Game —
... something else worth writing about happens). The first time I read about this new rule in Olympic Baseball I thought it was the beginning of a joke. But no, it's real. Let's hope no important games go into extra innings. Tailoring your team to your ballpark isn't quite as easy as it may seem. Chris Jaffe continues his look into the job that the BBWAA has done in selecting players for the Hall of Fame. Also from the Hardball Times is this post from John Walsh, where he takes a look at the adviseability of throwing inside ...
Tuesday's Frosty Mug
Brew Crew Ball —
... Thanks to Dixieflatline, who mentioned this one in yesterday's comments: Over at the Hardball Times, John Walsh takes a look at the change-up, why it's not traditionally thrown inside, and how Ted Lilly has gotten away with throwing it inside anyway. ...
This Week's Links (7/28-8/1)
Vegas Watch —
Yesterday was not a good day for MLB.com. Yet another reason to root for the Rays. Ibanez was very close to going to Toronto. Ted Lilly, master of the inside change-up. Bannister is encouraged by his xFIP. The 10 worst deadline deals of the last 10 years.
Lilly’s change-up and the rest of the season
Another Cubs Blog —
The inside change-up: courage or folly?
The remains of the season: Chicago Cubs
