The Hardball Times: With the game on the line, I want …
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The Hardball Times found this 4/3/2008 on www.hardballtimes.com [flag] |
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Comments (15)
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MGL +2Tango, the wOBA's you list in the charts, are those lifetime, Marcel projections, or something else? I don't think you say in the article. Very well writtten, BTW! -
MGL In addition, I put in some wild cards (see table below). This is most easily explained with Rollins vs. Burrell. Not only did Phillies Fans not select Burrell (a better hitter than Rollins)—many also voted Burrell as "POOR" (the last guy they want with the game on the line). And they loved Rollins so much, he was almost preferred to Ryan Howard. Clearly, a Rollins-Burrell match-up satisfies our needs here.
With all due respect, just because the fans voted player A as good or great in clutch and player B on the same team as poor clutch, does mean that you can fairly match them up. You did not ask the fans to match any players up - you simply asked them to rate every player.
For example, let's say I am rating all the players on the Yankees from a couple of years ago. Let's say that I rated A-Rod as poor clutch and Sojo as good clutch. Fair ratings I would think from fans. Fans might see Sojo as a .300 wOBA overall guy who hits .330 in the clutch and A-Rod as a .400 wOBA guy who hits .380 or .370 or even .350 in the clutch. What gives you the right to pair them up, like you do in the "wild cards?" I see that you are trying to pair up players who are not too far off overall, but I don't think you have a right to pair off anyone but the #1 player for the fans and your #1 (overall best) player, since the fans clearly have a choice of everyone on the team to choose as their #1 player.
By pairing up players on your own, even ones who are close in overall wOBA, you are simply setting yourself up to win, since the fans clearly did not ask for those specific matchups. You would have to print those two players from each team in your wild card list and THEN ask the fans, which one they would prefer at the plate when the game is on the line, according to your definition of when the game is on the line. That is the only fair way to do it.
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tangotiger I agree with you in principle.
Look at the Phillies though. The two obvious choices were Utley and Howard. So, when someone select "Rollins", they are implying "Rollins ahead of Utley and Howard... and Burrell". When someone (almost no one) says "Burrell", they are implying "Burrell ahead of Utley and Howard... and Rollins".
So, of those people who made that choice, it's clear that Rollins ahead of Burrell. Unknown is those who selected Utley or Howard. But, that doesn't take away from those who focused on Rollins and Burrell.
You are suggesting that if Utley and Howard were eliminated, that perhaps THOSE fans might select Burrell over Rollins. That is possible.
But the few wildcards I selected had an overwhelming desire of one over the other.
Had I enough time to do a "runoff", which is really what you are suggesting, I could have done that.
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tangotiger Actually, I'm looking at the Phillies ballots. I received 52 of them, and in 40 of them, either Rollins and/or Burrell is on them.
Rollins was the preferred choice of the two 25 times, Burrell 4 times, and tied 11 times. As I noted, the other 12 ballots had neither of them on.
So, it's rather clear here that Rollins was much more highly desired, right?
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matts Actually, I wouldn't say that's true as a Phillies fan. Anyone who understands Burrell should be up instead of Rollins also probably knows that Howard, a similar but superior hitter, should be up instead of Burrell. We're there a lot of ballots with the three of them (ignoring Utley) ranked as Howard/Burrell/Rollins and many but fewer others with Rollins/Howard/Burrell?-
tangotiger Howard/Burrell/Rollins: 0 ballots
Rollins/Howard/Burrell: 6 ballots
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Howard-Burrell / Rollins: 1 ballot
(This means that Howad and Burrell better than Rollins, but not looking at whether Howard is ahead of Burrell.)
Rollins-Howard / Burrell: 20 ballots
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Matts, you are basically in the minority of Phillies fans I polled. Tthat doesn't mean you are wrong. But, for what I'm doing, Fan Perception of Clutch, your view is not representative of the fans I polled.
If you want to argue that the fans I polled are not representative of fans in general, I can't necessarily argue against that.
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matts Well, I guess that throws that out the window!
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The On Deck Circle Man, that was great and I'm very interested to see how it turns out. Unfortunately, I'm too young to get the Gilligan references.
And, uhh...are we Jays fans idiots? Scutaro and Stairs over Wells and Thomas? Really?
Anyways, great experiment!
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tangotiger Wells got an enormous amout of "hate" votes. Scutaro didn't get any.
Also, when Wells got some love, there was alot more love for the rest of his teammates. But, when Scutaro got some love, he stood almost alone.
As for Stairs/Thomas, head-to-head, Stairs 30, Thomas 16, tied 15.
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Megary Career:
Men on base: Rollins .291, Burrell .271
RISP: Rollins .287, Burrell .267
RISP 2 Outs: Rollins .254, Burrell .252
On 3rd, < 2 Out: Rollins .414, Burrell .297
Moreover, according to THT:
Aggregate Clutch 2004-2007: Rollins 7.7, Burrell -1.7
Did all these numbers occur during a pre-defined instance of "clutch", whatever definition you apply? Of course not.
Yet these are the kind of results that stick out in a fan's mind and maybe, just maybe, why they vote as the do. And no, I didn't vote.
Interesting reading, though.
Oh, almost forgot, the correct answer to the eternal question is Mary Ann, obviously.
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tangotiger I should also say that since all the stats are being compiled in an individualized basis, if the idea of the Wildcard seems out-of-place here, then you can remove those players.
And, if the idea of half the teams needing to go to their next best players for both sides seems not right, you can remove those players as well.
You'll be left with 15 "true" head-to-head, of the Fans' #1 against Marcel's #1.
The data is all there on Fangraphs, for anyone to do with as they wish.
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tangotiger Here’s the head-to-head count for the 30 pairs of players:
tm fans marcel tie
ana 18 5 6
ari 11 0 0
atl 17 7 5
bal 48 2 3
bos 177 40 150
chc 52 22 41
cin 31 21 8
cle 20 8 4
col 9 4 3
cws 30 9 21
det 24 5 7
fla 5 2 1
hou 13 5 3
kc. 6 2 0
la. 26 12 19
mil 31 24 42
min 9 5 4
nym 39 15 10
nyy 80 58 44
oak 22 12 20
phi 27 7 15
pit 8 1 3
sd. 16 8 3
sea 55 2 4
sf. 30 8 9
stl 64 23 23
tb. 12 5 5
tex 14 1 2
tor 30 16 15
was 11 7 3This is what I did with an illustration. I looked at all ballots where Utley and/or Howard was selected. I looked at the rating for each player. Utley was preferred to Howard 27 times, and Howard was preferred 7 times. They got an equal rating 15 times.
So, I think that addresses MGL’s concern for those teams where I had to go to the #2 guy. For example, most wanted Pujols. If you remove him, you are still left with 110 ballots where Molina and/or Duncan appear. Molina was preferred 64-23 with 23 ties.
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And here are the 6 wildcard picks:
tm fans marcel tie
bos 233 24 74
det 22 2 4
nyy 74 28 41
phi 25 2 11
sea 37 3 2
tor 30 19 1Other than perhaps Wells/Scutaro, it was a huge landslide as to who the fans preferred. The Toronto one is more notable in that Scutaro had alot of solo ballots (only he was mentioned) while Wells had alot of “POOR” ratings.
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Can we agree that the group of 30 is representative of the Fans’ choice? And that the 6 wildcard picks are also Fans’ preference?
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The On Deck Circle Hey, thanks for the response re: Jays. I wasn't questioning you, just saying it's bizarre that Jays fans feel that way. Seriously, that shocks me. Vernon struggled, sure, but wow. I'm really excited to see how this study shakes down. -
alanj On the whole I'll take Tango's team, but I think the straight wOBA approach does overlook a couple of factors that fans are correctly taking into account.
For example, early in a game, I'm pretty indifferent whether Dustin Pedroia or J.D. Drew is batting. With the game on the line, I absolutely want Pedroia up there. This is not because of magic clutch fairy dust on Pedroia, or Drew being a choker because he lacks intangibles, or any such nonsense. It's because the opposing manager will bring in a lefty to pitch to Drew with the game on the line, and Drew is 234/338/347 over the last three years facing lefties. The opposing manager has no such way to turn Pedroia into a pumpkin.
Looking through Tango's list, he's got a bunch of potential platoon pumpkins. Giambi vs Matsui is another that jumps out at me. In a situation where it's worth it for the opposition to burn a LOOGY, give me Matsui any day. He has almost no platoon split, while Giambi's split is extreme.
The other factor is that event values are situation-dependent. Bottom of the ninth, two out, tie game, man on second, a low-AVG high-OBP slugger isn't really the guy you want there. Singles and doubles are inflated in value, walks and homers are reduced. If given a choice between Adam Dunn's 235/356/467 line vs LHP, or Edwin Encarnacion's 277/340/452 line vs RHP, I think Encarnacion's distribution of results might be preferable.
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tangotiger So far, the Fans are getting killed:
Links (9)
The Great Clutch Project has started
Published 4/3/2008 by Tangotiger (tangotiger@yahoo.com) at THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball
Here’s the details.
THT: Tango: With the game on the line, I want …
Published 4/3/2008 at BBTF's Baseball Primer Newsblog
THT: Tango: With the game on the line, I want … You may hear a sound, a sort of a grinding whirrrr...Tango’s Great Clutch Project is now engaged. The Reds Fans detest their best hitter (Adam Dunn) so much that they actually selected four different hitters ahead of him. Every time I would check the results, a new leader would emerge. Junior, Scott Hatteberg and Brandon Phillips each would have made a fine choice, but the task will be taken up by Edwin Encarnacion. (And Javy Valentin was just behind Dunn in fan appreciation.) Step right up, Edwin and Adam. Sometimes, the fight ...
Thursday Morning Rockpile:
Published 4/3/2008 by Rox Girl at Purple Row: Front Page Posts
... Troy Tulowitzki is clutch, Garrett Atkins is anti-clutch. Somehow, I think that Rockies fans are actually going to come out right in this, even though I have some serious doubts about other fan picks. ...
Clutch Project: Ballot Results & Scoreboard
Published 4/3/2008 by David Appelman at FanGraphs Baseball
... The results are in for Tangotiger’s clutch project and you can read all about them over at The Hardball Times. Over here, we have the ...
Friday links
Published 4/4/2008 by MB at Friar Forecast
A bullet-point, abbreviated edition:
Cust Eats Fastballs for Lunch — This is what happens when Mike Fast takes on hitters ….
Tango’s Clutch project – Tango talks about his clutch project at HBT.
How important is the narrative? – Great post on WPA and clutchness.
Third Base coaches — The usual cool work from Pizza Cutter.
MVP candidates — Melvin reports that the Pads have had a player in the top 10 of each MVP race since ‘04. Didn’t know that. ...
Friday Night Links: Clutch Project, Reds' Service, Salaries, and Pete Rose
Published 4/5/2008 by Justin at On Baseball and the Reds
... As expected, Adam Dunn did not win the fan's vote for The Guy They'd Most Want At the Plate in a Key Situation. Instead, as Tom Tango tells it, there was a very close race between Encarnacion, Griffey, Hatteberg, and Phillips...all of which placed well ahead of Dunn. In the end, Eddie got the nod, so he will face off against Dunn in the Reds' representatives in the project. ...
Crede's Slam Lifts Streaking Sox
Published 4/8/2008 by The Cheat at South Side Sox: Front Page Posts
... . There was little doubt in my mind that pre-surgery Crede would have been the player most SSSers wanted at the plate with the game on the line. A poor spring erased my optimism regarding Crede's return such that I voted him among the Sox hitters I wanted at the plate, though not necessarily the hitter; so I wondered how that spring effected the rest of you. Turns out Crede did end up being the Sox choice for Tango's Clutch Project. ...
Economic sociology of baseball OR Why DID the Dodgers pay that much for Juan Pierre?
Published 5/7/2008 by Pizza Cutter at Statistically Speaking
... Now, first we need a few good working theories. Theory can then inform actual research, perhaps research that no one has really gotten into: systematic research on how players are actually perceived by the general public (the closest thing I’ve seen would be something like Tango Tiger’s fan surveys or the Great Clutch project). So, I come to you, oh Sabermetrically-inclined readers. Let’s chat about the subject at hand. ...
Clutch Project: Checking In
Published 6/6/2008 by David Appelman at FanGraphs Baseball
... Every week or so I like to take a look at how Tangotiger’s Great Clutch Project is shaping up. For those of you unfamiliar with the project, the gist of it is to find out if fans know which players on their team are “clutch”. You can read all the details over at the Hardball Times and find the ...
