vegaswatch.net - 9/12/2008
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Tom Brady is out for the season. You may have heard. How much worse does this really make the Patriots? Before the season, the Vegas line indicated that New England's mean projection was 12.1 wins. Since any analysis of the Pats without Brady will be limited to their final 15 games, this needs to be adjusted. New England was favored against Kansas City by 16 points last week, with the total ...
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Tom Brady worth 1.2 wins above replacement?
THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball —
That’s according to Vegas Watch’s analysis of the betting line.
Doesn’t seem right. What could be our guess? Let’s say the great QB completes 65% of his passes and an average one is 58%. Just WAG. Give the good one 13 yds per completion and the average 12 yds, and give them each 35 passes. Again, WAG. The difference in yards is 50 yards per game, or 800 yards in a season. I think my conversion is 10 yards per point, and 30 points per win. Again, WAG. So, that gives us about 2.5 ...
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