THT round table: Johan Santana!

• obsessivegiantscompulsive

  +1

  I think what was meant by the "sure thing" crack is that there is no sure thing great player in return for arguably the best pitcher in the majors today.  And the Twins got no sure thing from the Mets in the deal.

  Yeah, I think the overwhelming reaction is that the Mets reamed the Twins, for all the good reasons listed in the article.

  But I think the best response was Lisa Gray's about "yaneverno".   There are some in the Mets org who think Gomez is Jose Reyes in CF.  If that comes true, then the Twins actually got a pretty good return for Santana. 

   And while some see Gomez as perhaps rushed in 2007, there are a couple key developments that people are missing.  One was that he was actually hitting OK for a speedy, no-power CF once he got over being in the majors.   His June was OK for anyone in the majors, let alone a 21 year old .   Two was that he greatly improved his walk rate in 2007, near the magic 10% mark, almost double his 5-6% rate previously in his career.   That's a big key to reaching his potential, getting on base and stealing 2nd from the top of the order.  Plus, he showed a little more power in the majors than he had previously, while he was starting and getting comfortable.  Though I understand that its only one month, small sampling and all that, but still, he did it for one month, it was not like he was totally overmatched and thus I don't think he was rushed.

  And Guerra looks like a future ace.  As noted, he pitched well in a league where the average batter was 4 years older than he was (and thus much more experienced).  Yet he struck out a good amount and had good command (after struggling initially like he did in 2006, he had pretty good peripherals after he returned from his injury).  And while the injury is significant for a young pitcher like him, the Twins at least did a good job at shepherding Francisco Liriano, who had injuries every year with the Giants, through the minors without constant injuries, until the majors and TJ.

  So the trade is not as lopsided as some say, but even in light of the above, the Twins got shafted, they should have waited until mid-season.  The only fear for that would be if Santana somehow injured himself and/or was ineffective.  Even if he were ineffective, I think a package like what they got from the Mets would still be offered for Santana.

  Posted 1/30/2008 [reply] [flag]

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Links (2)

Did You Hear That Santana Was Traded?
Published 1/30/2008 by Shyster at ShysterBall
The early returns on the Santana trade are in and they are overwhelmingly in favor of the Mets. There are notable exceptions, but my sense is that this may be an example of the bargaining phase of grief as opposed to acceptance.

Santana Trade Reaction: Twins Did Not Get Enough
Published 1/30/2008 at Opposite Field
... . The roundtable at The Hardball Times also agrees that the Twins could have done better . Nick N., at Nick & Nick's Twins blog is holding out hope that this turns out to be another Twins deal that looks bad a first but good in the long run. In his opinion though, ...