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walshj58 Super work, Max, really great stuff.
The only suggestion I have is to further break it down by pitcher handedness, especially for changeups and sliders, since those pitches are used more often against opposite- and same-hand batters, respectively.
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dicmod Great article! Good luck for your new adventure. -
loran16 Interesting article, i would never have guessed just HOW useless the inside part of the plate is for things that aren't sliders and I have hard time believing pitchers intentionally try the slider in for a called strike very often. Can you do an article similarly for the vertical part of the plate and combine them? I'm very curious now. -
lookatthosetwins I think it definitely would be nice to see it broken down by pitcher handedness. Besides sliders/changeups, it does seem that lefties have a lot of success throwing inside fastballs to righties, and vise versa. Based on my unquestionable anectdotal evidence, I'd say that an inside fastball and an outside change would be the two most effective pitches for opposite handed matchups.
It also should be noted that just because an inside fastball has a high run value, doesn't mean that it is without value. Based on more anectdotal evidence and cliches, inside fastballs are needed to "keep the hitter honest" and to "keep them from leaning over the plate." I really do hope for a follow up! Thanks! -
Vorpy What I find most interesting, if I am reading the graphics correctly, is that a fastball and curveball over the middle is actually worth NEGATIVE runs.
Also, intersting to note that a changeup, unless thrown on the inside 2.5 inches of the plate, is the one pitch that has the least value for a pitcher.
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profpepper I agree with John and lookatthosetwins that I need to further split by handedness.
Initially, the same work on the vertical component wasn't in my plans, but Harry Pavlidis hinted me in that direction; since loran is also suggesting the same thing, I think I'll tackle it.
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dps I wonder if the values have changed any since Spahn's day. My initial assumption would be that the inside corner is less valuable now and the outside corner perhaps more valuable, but it would be nice to see some actual data on the matter. -
stevet Fabulous work, Max.
Linear Weights, by pitch location
THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball —
... Max now is writing for Hardball Times, and he’s got an easy-to-understand article, with lots of great graphs. Here’s the one for the slider: ...
The Interaction of Speed and Location on Fastball Success
Baseball Analysts —
... , not too surprising. And Max Marchi gave us the success of a fastball by location. For horizontal location you get a 'W' shaped graph. That is pitches outside the zone and down the middle of the plate result in higher run outcomes (the outer branches and middle of the 'W'), while pitches on the edge of the zone result in lower run outcomes. ...
