What If… History Weren’t: Joe Gibbs

From the winter of my kindergarten year to that of my freshman, the Redskins went to four Super Bowls and won three, all under the watch and with the wrath of Joe Gibbs. Nothing brought greater joy than Burgundy & Gold, and there was loads of it to go around those days. Then, suddenly everything had changed.

Coach Gibbs left the game and the city that loved him so for good health and the good graces of his family. Of course, the Redskins’ fortunes, and my own, whirlpooled down the drain for the next 11 seasons until our football savior finally returned in the winter of my 26th year. And, of course, I still blame him for the hard times that fell in between.

So what if Coach Gibbs didn’t walk away at the height of his game? How would that have changed the fortunes of his franchise? His legacy? And those 176 Gibbs-less NFL Sundays and 11 postseasons that I, and all Skins fans, suffered through?

The answers are simple: 1) Washington would’ve won 35 more regular season games and made six more playoff appearances than they actually did under the tutelage of Richie Petitbone, Norv Turner, Terry Robiskie (T-Robe!), Marty Schottenheimer and Steve Spurrier. 2) Two more Super Bowl championships would’ve come home to D.C., making Gibbs the greatest coach in the history of the game. 3) I, and all Skins fans, would’ve turned into the most insufferable fans in the NFL, ranking slightly ahead of New England and Dallas.

Outlandish though they may be, each of these findings is based on back-of-the-envelope statistical analysis. In Gibbs’ 16 seasons, he won 62% of his games, made 10 playoff appearances and won three Super Bowls. In the non-Gibbs 11 seasons, the Skins won 42% of their games, made one playoff appearance and didn’t sniff a Super Bowl.

The reasons for this are myriad, but one needn’t look much further than the drafting success of Gibbs versus his intermediaries. Check out the first-rounders under Gibbs’ watch:

LaRon Landry, Carlos Rogers, Jason Campbell, Sean Taylor, Desmond Howard, Bobby Wilson, Darrell Green, Mark May

And the first-rounders taken under Mssrs. Spurrier, Schottenheimer, Turner and Petitbone:

Patrick Ramsey, Rod Gardner, LaVar Arrington, Chris Samuels, Champ Bailey, Kenard Lang, Andre Johnson, Michael Westbrook, Heath Shuler, Tom Carter

That first group has about a 75% hit rate, while the second group is down near 30%. Dig a little deeper, and you’ll find even more startling results. Here’s a list of non-first-rounders selected under Gibbs who became pretty, pretty good:

Chris Cooley (3rd-round pick), Keenan McCardell (12), Brian Mitchell (5), Mark Schlereth (10), Stan Humphries (6), Alvin Walton (3), Mark Rypien (6), Charles Mann (3), Kelvin Bryant (7), Russ Grimm (3), Dexter Manley (5), Charlie Brown (8), Clint Didier (12)

And the non-first-round studs selected by that other group of turds:

Rock Cartwright (7), Stephen Davis (4), Frank Wycheck (6), Fred Smoot (2)

That’s just sad, but the disparity can’t be entirely credited to Gibbs, as a lot of the right choices the first time around were made by general manager Bobby Beathard. Still, it’s worth mentioning, if for no other reason than to damn the names of Shuler, Westbrook and Gardner one more time, sweetness.

In the end, if ifs and buts were candy and nuts Gibbs never would have walked away the first time, and my high school, college and young-adult years would’ve been that much more enjoyable. Maybe the Skins never would’ve moved into bumf-ck Maryland. Maybe Gus Frerotte never would’ve been fr’real. Maybe the team wouldn’t sell Wild Card merchandise. No one knows, but I do hope we’re not playing this same game 11 seasons from now.

Previous on What If...: The New York Knicks, the Chicago Cubs, the Los Angeles Lakers, the St. Louis Cardinals, the San Francisco Giants, the Philadelphia Eagles, the New York Mets and Chris Webber. Keep track of the Spotlight Series at the BallHype hub or via the RSS feed. To get involved in future Spotlight Series, contact Tom Ziller.