Who is/was better: Pedro Martinez or Johan Santana?

• William Lu

  +1

  May I have your explanation about how the table with fields "Runs", "Sanata wins", "Average Pitcher" & "Probability" comes out? And how Weibull distribution is applied in this case?

  Posted 8/21/2007 [reply] [flag]

  • John Beamer

    +1

    I used the Weibull spreadsheet that Sal provided in his first THT articles on the subject. (I can't find the orginal link but I believe it was from beyondtheboxscore)

     

    If you drop me an email I'll send you the xl but I may need to spend some time tidying it up as it is a mess.

    Posted 8/21/2007 [reply] [flag]

• CharlieH

  +2

  It'll sure be fun in late-'08 when they're both on the Mets...

   

  ;-)

  Posted 8/22/2007 [reply] [flag]

  • John Beamer

    +1

    Good joke!

     

    Seriously, Pedro may not last that long. 

    Posted 8/22/2007 [reply] [flag]

    • CharlieH

      +1

      It was totally intended as a joke and seriously, I agree with you...

      Posted 8/22/2007 [reply] [flag]

• Joshey

  +1

  I know that PECOTA projections don't predict Santana to have an outburst like Pedro did, but would PECOTA have predicted it from Pedro? I'm not sure if pecota was even around , but I doubt that it would have foreseen such an incredible season. I'm not saying Santana will pitch 5 years of 2.20 ERA, but it is possible. Is there any way of going back and figuring out Pedro's PECOTA projection for his '99 season?

  Posted 8/24/2007 [reply] [flag]

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Links (2)

Pay zat man heez meeonee
Published 8/20/2007 by Ken Dynamo at GO METS DIE BRAVES
... Here is how Johan projects: ...

What'll Santana do next?
Published 8/21/2007 by Minneapolis Red Sox at Siberian Baseball
... poses the question: "Who's better - Pedro Martinez or Johan Santana in their respective primes?" ...