Why the Cubs will beat the Dodgers

• Bob R.

  +1

  Here comes my broken record again.

  It makes little sense to compare offenses by comparing players by position. Just because they play the same position does not mean they have the same roles on offense. For example, Soriano usually bats at the top of the lineup while Manny bats in the middle of his. 

  The only legitimate comparison of offense is place by place in the lineup while the only meaningful comparisons, say of of Ramirez and Soriano or Johnson/Edmonds and Kemp is defensively. 

  Posted 9/30/2008 [reply] [flag]

• tdierkes

  +1

  I think that puts too much stock in lineup order, which is unimportant. Position by position is a decent gauge, it just doesn't show the magnitude of the overall difference.  Sal at THT did a nice job projecting based on likely starters, finding the Cubs likely to score slightly more runs if DeRosa plays.  Additionally I looked at team OBP/SLG in the article.

  Posted 9/30/2008 [reply] [flag]

• Bob R.

  +1

  I agree that lineup order is not particularly important, but it still makes more sense to use it when discussing offense than it does to compare offenses by position. The issue of offense depends on the kinds of hitters 1-9, not on where they play.

   For example, there is little point in comparing Jeter to Adam Everett when discussing offense because Minnesota does not expect Everett to hit like Jeter. If Everett bats 9th, he should be compared to another 9th place hitter, not because lineup is important but because in essence you are comparing the two worst hitters in the lineup, and that tells you something about the offensive depth each team has. Similarly, Jeter should be compared to the Twins' #2 hitter,  not because lineup construction is at issue but because that tells us something about the comparative strengths of one of the better hitters on each team.

  It is also important in comparing offenses to consider the offensive style of two teams. While OBP and power may be the best approach to offense, a team might develop a solid offense by maximizing some other skills (I think the Angels have done that on occasion). Again, the positions are irrelevant. What is important is how the offense is constructed to score runs; it is the effectiveness of each style that needs to be compared.

  Posted 9/30/2008 [reply] [flag]

  • tdierkes

    +1

    Everett may be an exception because he plays phenomenal defense.  But in most cases a team's expectations of a player are not important.  If a team is content with below-average offense from a position, that is probably a dumb decision.  Similarly, the Cubs' foolish decision to bat Alfonso Soriano first doesn't suddenly make him a comp for Brian Roberts.  OBP and power is pretty much the only approach to offense...nothing else has proven sustainable.

    Posted 10/1/2008 [reply] [flag]

    • Bob R.

      +1

      We may be talking at cross purposes here. I agree with everything you are saying (and probably should not have added the point about offensive styles to muddy the waters). My point is that whatever the lineup, it reflects something about what the manager considers the skills of his players. Whether he is right or wrong is not at issue.

       Let's take you point that it is OBP and power that creates runs. We normally expect the corners to provide more power than the middle, but suppose one team reverses it and has its power up the middle and lesser hitters on the corners. Comparing by position might balance out in the end, but it isn't the optimum way to compare.

      Suppose instead we consider the famous suggestion that a lineup should go from best to worst. By comparing hitter #1s, 2s et. al we can see better whose offense is better far more clearly than by comparing positions. 

      Piniella should not use Soriano to lead off, but he does. Therefore, the question becomes not is he better than Manny but is the Dodgers' offense better with Kemp and Martin in front of Manny and Ethier than the Cubs' with Soriano and Theriot in front of Lee and Ramirez.

      Similarly, the Dodgers' #9 hitter is Berroa while the Cubs will use Fukodome. Clearly the Cubs have a deeper offense than does LA despite the fact that you might prefer Ethier's offense in RF right now to Fukodome's. And again, while I think Lee is the better hitter than Loney at 1B, since he is the Cubs' #3 hitter while Manny hits third for LA, I give that matchup to LA.

       Let's take an extreme hypothetical. Team 1 is: Fisk, Wes Parker, Hornsby, Aurelio Rodriguez, A-Rod, Raines, Hack Wilson, Waner

      Team 2 is: Schalk, Gehrig, Mazeroski, Dick Allen, Marty Marion, Ted Williams, Lloyd Waner, Aaron

      I do not see the point of comparing those offenses by position. 

      Posted 10/1/2008 [reply] [flag]

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Links (2)

Cubs to Win World Series, and Other Hopeful Links
Published 9/30/2008 by Cubnut at The Cub Reporter (TCR) | A Chicago Cubs Blog -
... --Tim Dierkes at The Hardball Times also likes the Cubs in 5, pointing to the Cubs' superior hitting and fielding over the Dodgers' miniscule edge in starting pitching. ...

Around The Web: Andruw Jones Loves Soulja Boy
Published 10/3/2008 by kensai (noreply@blogger.com) at Fire Ned Colletti Now
... The Hardball Times: Tim Dierkes says the Cubs will beat the Dodgers. Granted, Tim is a Cubs fan, but he usually does a good job of remaining objective. ...