Why the Rays will beat the Red Sox
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The Hardball Times found this 10/10/2008 on www.hardballtimes.com [flag] |
Tags:
MLB
Tampa Bay Rays
ALCS
Fenway Park
Comments (8)
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mpedone Yeah, I stopped reading at "How quickly the Pink Hat Nation forgets their place and 86 years if ineptitude". This is coming from a Rays fan? Are you serious? What a clown.-
Bob R. I can tell you with absolute certainty that Corky Gaines is anything but a clown. He is a perceptive and sensible analyst who is undoubtedly a Rays' fan and sometimes in my view uses somewhat intemperate language, but any intelligent reader can discern considerable analysis within this article. You may object to the jabs at the "pink hat nation" but should be able to set pique aside to recognize the useful analysis.
Fact is that there is no team that is immune from memories of long periods of ineptitude, and that it is equally so that many fans conveniently forget that when mocking other teams. The Rays have an inglorious albeit very brief history, but this year wipes all that out and sometimes it is useful to remind people that nonsense allegations such as those of Reilly or notions that they are Cinderellas or ready to collapse should be attacked, even with acid.
But it behooves Boston fans to recognize that, although they have had more glorious segments in their history, they are not too far behind the Phillies as one of the least successful teams in the history of the sport. That is not simply because of their long World Series drought, but the absolute miserable performance over long stretches in their history.
As a simple example, from 1919-1933 Boston finished last 9 times, including 6 straight, and 5 times lost over 100 games a season (in 154 game seasons), one of them to a .279 "winning" %. Their 1952-66 run was somewhat better but still represented a long period without really being competitive. It is often galling to fans of other teams when Red Sox fans don a mantle of specialness because of their recent well-deserved success and respond to legitimate interpretations that suggest vulnerability with such scorn.
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D_Gould Analysis? What analysis?
We won at Fenway late in the season, so we can win there now? That's not analysis, and those wins were flukes.
We come from behind? Again, not analysis. Blind hope that they can keep coming from behind.
Cinderella? Only if you assert that Cinderella has to lose eventually.
The comment about "good for baseball" has nothing to do with the results of this series. Yeah, that's fine "analysis".
Ripping the city of Philadelphia? Again, not analysis.
The Over/Unders? NOT analysis, again.
As for your comment about the history of the Red Sox, what does that have to do with the 2008 ALCS?? Absolutely nothing. And it is supremely lame to bring it up as if "86 years of ineptitude" is the Red Sox proper station in life.
Talk about projection.
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D_Gould What would a regular old position-by-position analysis find?
Rays advantage:
1B (would be different if Youk were playing)
C (might be different if it were 2003)
Even:
SS (Bartlett has a defensive edge, though Lowery has handled everything hit his way; even a slumping Lowery hits better)
CF
3B (would be different if Lowell were on the roster, but Youk is clearly Longoria's equal and actually hits to a better BA, OBP and similar slugging)
Red Sox advantage:
2B (Aki's a nice player and a tough out in the clutch, but let's be real)
RF (even a decrepit Drew is a better player than Gabe Gross)
LF (might be different if this weren't 2008 Carl Crawford)
DH
Rotations are even if Beckett doesn't regain his October form; if he does, its a clear advantage to the Sox.
Bullpen is a tiny Rays advantage based on depth and consistency of performance. But they still don't have a Papelbon at the end of the game.
And one more thing to consider - One of those "secret sauce" ingredients to post-season success is strikeout pitchers. And what do the Red Sox do best and the Rays do worse? Strikeout.
If the Red Sox pitch to their capability, they win in six.
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rickjames Cork-
"The most overrated 18-3 [pitcher] in the history of baseball" just abused your Rays, you exaggerating creep. He is about 1000 times better at his job than you are at yours.
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PersonalFowls Users at hubdub predict that the Rays will win in 6 games. They've been pretty accurate and I like their chances!
Links (1)
ALCS1: Red Sox at Rays, 8:30 PM
Published 10/10/2008 by redsock (noreply@blogger.com) at The Joy of Sox
... 7 - LAD 5 Massarotti: TBR 6 - LAD 6 Kilgore: TBR 6 - LAD 7 *: Benjamin was the only Glober to pick the Red Sox over the Angels.Michael Silverman, Herald: Red Sox in 7. ... David Pinto, Baseball Musings: "Flipping a coin might be just as good. The Red Sox are my favorite, but with just a 51% chance of winning the series." ... Yahoo ran 10,000 AccuScore simulations of the ALCS: The Red Sox won 53% of them. The Hardball Times: Why the Rays will win / Why the Red Sox will win. ... Christina Kahrl has BP's ...
Why does HT give dweebs with axes to grind the opportunity to write dreck like this? This isn't intelligent baseball analysis, its fanboy garbage complete with childish name calling.
If you want respect, editors, earn it by giving these assignments to disinterested writers who will give legitimate reasons why one team should be favored.